Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Tireman4]

Reports of light sleet in the NW part of Houston and Harris county...very light....

I wish HGX would send up balloons, it would really help up in such a major pop center! Using the RAP profiles, the column does support sleet or graupel. Should be very light though, keep your eyes wide open!

Boy, have we kicked that one around. Man oh man. You are TOTALLY right.

[TexasF6]

I saw intellicast radar flash what was probably some frozen virga from NW Austin to Georgetown to Jarrel. Let's take this as a sign of hope of things to come! Sleet in Houston is wonderful news!

[Tireman4]

Update from Jeff:

A few reports of light sleet mixed with light rain over the area in the past 30 minutes.

It appears that the mid levels are saturating enough to allow precipitation to reach the ground mainly in the form of light rain…however onset of light rain has been mixed with light sleet across Harris County. Surface temperatures have cooled into the upper 30’s and low 40’s, but this is still well above freezing. Even with evaporative cooling due to the precipitation process cooling the air temperature toward the dewpoint, the dewpoints are mainly at or above freezing.

May continue to see light sleet mix with the light rain for the next few hours especially at the onset of any precipitation, but all areas should transition over to pure rain by noon as the dry layer aloft shrinks and any evaporative processes end. With surface temperatures above freezing there will be no accumulations.

[Cuda17]

I'm in Bellville, 60 miles West of Houston, and I've got some sort of moisture falling from the sky. Looks to be light sleet and an occasional snow flake (falling very slow and drift like)? Nothing wet on the ground. My wife is from Wyoming and says she doesn't see snow just sleet.

[wxman57]

I'm in Bellville, 60 miles West of Houston, and I've got some sort of moisture falling from the sky. Looks to be light sleet and an occasional snow flake (falling very slow and drift like)? Nothing wet on the ground. My wife is from Wyoming and says she doesn't see snow just sleet.

Often, small raindrops and drizzle float/swirl around sort of like snowflakes. When it's really snowing there's no mistaking it. The current Rapid Update Cycle sounding for Bellville indicates well above freezing air all the way up to around 11,000 feet. You're likely seeing small raindrops/drizzle float around.

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS is coming in and it suggests that frozen precipitation may end up quite close to the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County. Keep in mind that these maps show precip from the previous six hours. It's quite possible that the 850mb 0-degree isotherm and the moisture may not align at the same time. But it does suggest that it could be a close call for us in the Austin metro area later this week.



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[Cuda17]

I'm in Bellville, 60 miles West of Houston, and I've got some sort of moisture falling from the sky. Looks to be light sleet and an occasional snow flake (falling very slow and drift like)? Nothing wet on the ground. My wife is from Wyoming and says she doesn't see snow just sleet.

Often, small raindrops and drizzle float/swirl around sort of like snowflakes. When it's really snowing there's no mistaking it. The current Rapid Update Cycle sounding for Bellville indicates well above freezing air all the way up to around 11,000 feet. You're likely seeing small raindrops/drizzle float around.

Thanks wxman57... definitely not snow... but there is definitely sleet falling, albeit very, very, light. You can't mistake the sound of sleet hitting brown leaves on the ground. I don't see any moisture on the ground only small drops sporadically on my cars. Do you have a graphic of the RUC sounding for this area?

[Ivanhater]

Chance of snow in San Angelo tomorrow night!

[Snowman67]

Sleet mixed in with light rain here in Tomball. Sleet for sure - watching it bounce of the black bed liner of my son's truck.

[Ntxw]

Models have been trending wetter each run. Even the southern half of North Texas might get in on some action. Canadian is coming around giving Portastorm and the western half of Texas some snow!

NAM



GFS is very similar

[ndale]

12 gfs on twisterdata.com shows central Tx with some snow cover and Dallas/Ft Worth nws says, IN MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST INCLUDES A MENTION OF A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
INCOMING DATA THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED AND SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL WAIT TO
ANALYSIS ALL OF THE MORNING MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS
AND CHANGES BUT IT WILL BE THE HOT TOPIC FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

[orangeblood]

Canadian even more aggressive with precip...looks really good for areas northwest of Austin. We see this time and time again with these storms coming out of the southwest...the models almost always have a hard time picking up on moisture availability and usually trend wetter as you get closer to the event.

[Ntxw]

Canadian even more aggressive with precip...looks really good for areas northwest of Austin. We see this time and time again with these storms coming out of the southwest...the models almost always have a hard time picking up on moisture availability and usually trend wetter as you get closer to the event.

They are blind to the Pacific, must be those big mountains in Mexico. They always assume down-sloping will dry things out. There are some SREF members even more aggressive

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm in Bellville, 60 miles West of Houston, and I've got some sort of moisture falling from the sky. Looks to be light sleet and an occasional snow flake (falling very slow and drift like)? Nothing wet on the ground. My wife is from Wyoming and says she doesn't see snow just sleet.

Often, small raindrops and drizzle float/swirl around sort of like snowflakes. When it's really snowing there's no mistaking it. The current Rapid Update Cycle sounding for Bellville indicates well above freezing air all the way up to around 11,000 feet. You're likely seeing small raindrops/drizzle float around.

Oh man how I wish I didn't know what s*n*o*w looked like.

like this * but white (and a little bigger to a lot bigger if its humid there and then if will also be very big and fluffy)

and if you are really lucky *cough* lots and lots of it will fall

*sigh*

[Ntxw]

Oh man how I wish I didn't know what s*n*o*w looked like.

like this * but white (and a little bigger to a lot big if its humid there and very fluffy)

and if you are really lucky *cough* lots and lots of it will fall

*sigh*

Have you seen the models lately lady SaskatchewanScreamer? They are brutal for you

[ndale]

Seems like some of our systems lately have had temps cooler than forecasted, if this happens could add some interest to the situation.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Have you seen the models lately lady SaskatchewanScreamer? They are brutal for you

frick no......but my spidey senses have been tingling all this morning.

So what is it showing?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'd take 10 degrees and winter weather over 110 degrees and humidity 365 days a year

[ThunderSleetDreams]

frick no......but my spidey senses have been tingling all this morning.

Mid to Late January models have the polar Vortex sitting in Screamer's kitchen.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

frick no......but my spidey senses have been tingling all this morning.

Mid to Late January models have the polar Vortex sitting in Screamer's kitchen.

You really do enjoy being the bearer of bad tidings don't you my fave PITA!!!

*sigh*

oh come up here fellows I'll give you winter (however if we become the Arctic then you indeed may become Saskatchewan and then YOU WILL KNOW WINTER VERY WELL)

Welcome to the month of the WOLF