1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 125.9E
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 125.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 15 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WUKONG)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (WUKONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 251126Z SSMIS 91GZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TD 27W
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A LARGE CONVERGENT
BAND OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
REMAINED AT 30 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THESE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS AS WELL AS ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 27W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT REEMERGES IN THE NORTHERN SULU SEA AND INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AFTER TAU 48
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO OFFSET WBAR, WHICH CONTINUES TO RECURVE TD 27W
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 27W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE
FURTHER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A FORECASTED
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, IT WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DISSIPATE
BY TAU 96. OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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