Severe weather outbreak? December 25-26

[CrazyC83]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 242151
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT]..LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT PACKAGE ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES WHICH GUIDANCE HAS COOLED
DOWN BY 4 TO 5 FAHRENHEIT DEGREES MOSTLY INLAND...FOR LOWS. DOWN BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS. SURFACE CHART SHOWS A LOW MOVING OUT OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. EARLIER RADAR RETURNS SHOWED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WITH FLASHES OF LIGHTNING HERE AND
THERE...OCCASIONALLY MORE WITH STRONGER CELL. MOVEMENT WAS EAST
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. A 500 MB OPEN WAVE WAS PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR THIS CONVECTION. AT THAT POINT THE LOW IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MOVES RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES BY TONIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IS STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. VERTICAL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL RETURN SCATTERED
CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING BUT CONVECTION WILL RESTART IN EARNEST BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE THERE WILL BE A RISK OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
CHRISTMAS DAY. SEE BELOW. 77/BD

[CHRISTMAS DAY]...

...SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

A VERY POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS IN THE
MORNING WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY TOWARD EAST THEN NORTHEAST...REACHING
WESTERN TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A 90 TO 120 KNOT JET MAXIMUM AT 300
MB WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
DOWNSTREAM OF THE JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 50 KNOT JET MAX AT 850
MB THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO TUSCALOOSA BY LATE CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 55 TO 60 KNOTS AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS ALABAMA.

AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST OVER THE SAN ANTONIO-AUSTIN
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE...THE SABINE RIVER MIDWAY UP THE WEST LOUISIANA
STATE LINE BY CHRISTMAS NOON...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. IT WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 996 MB BY THEN WHICH
PLACES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A
WELL PLACED HIGH HUMIDITY INFLOW FOR CONVECTION. 850 MB DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM 8C TO 11C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL REACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MID EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE SLOWED DOWN ABOUT 3 HOURS SLOWER THAN IT WAS
IN RUNS PREVIOUS TO 24/00Z DUE TO NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
TIMING IS STILL UNCHANGED. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 3
AM...POSTFRONTAL RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY STILL HAS ACCOUTERMENTS OF A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. 500-300 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 8 C/KM AND MUCAPES
APPROACH 2000 J/KG CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION. STILL EXPECT
SUPERCELLS DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...AND THEN WITH BOWING RADAR STRUCTURES/LINE
ECHO WAVE PATTERNS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
ABOUT 3 AM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BRN INDICES GREATER
THAN 10 AND SFC-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR 400 M^2/S^2 SUGGEST
THAT CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS ARE FAVORABLE. IN ADDITION...MOST OF
THIS HELICITY IS NOW RESIDING IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER AND EHI VALUES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2...SUGGESTING THE
FORMATION OF STRONG CONVECTIVE SUPERCELLS WITH LONG TRACK EF-2 AND
EF-3 TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LI -4 TO -5. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.

DUE TO EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED
UPSTREAM...SO DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE OR WAIT FOR A THREAT TO APPEAR
IMMINENT BEFORE TAKING ACTION...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO LOW
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AND A DRY PERIOD LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SETTING UP A
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LONG WAVE SETTLING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO NORMAL OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING OVER
LOUISIANA ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA LATE CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE MARINE AREA DURING CHRISTMAS DAY THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CLEARING THE AREA TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE RISK INCREASES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE FLOW IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE MARINE
AREA...APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES...AND SEAS OFFSHORE ARE ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED AT AROUND 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GIVEN THIS HAVE OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE GULF WATERS
ZONES BEGINNING AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY JUST IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD BE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST VERY LATE
CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE FROM SCA TO GALE WARNING FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASES AND SEAS TREND LOWER MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (25/00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE)...CIGS FORECAST
AT MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING WITH MAYBE A LIGHT PASSING SHOWER. A
SOUTHWEST WIND OF GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT CIGS AND VISBYS LOWER IN ADVANCE
OF A FRONT...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR CRITERIA. TOWARD DAYBREAK...WE ARE
LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY SFC WINDS...OTHERWISE SFC
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS DECREASING THIS
EVENING AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST TRANSPORT
WINDS...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY TO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR WARNING CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MET. 77/BD

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...FOG NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 56 72 45 55 31 / 40 90 90 10 10
PENSACOLA 59 71 49 58 33 / 30 80 100 10 10
DESTIN 60 69 52 60 37 / 30 70 100 20 10
EVERGREEN 50 70 45 54 29 / 20 100 100 10 10
WAYNESBORO 47 68 40 51 26 / 30 100 80 10 10
CAMDEN 47 67 43 51 29 / 20 100 90 10 10
CRESTVIEW 52 72 51 58 30 / 30 80 100 20 10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
60 NM...

&&

$$

[bella_may]

If the SPC goes all-in with a High Risk tomorrow, it would be the first in December in 10 years.

It should seriously be considered, to boost awareness given the large number of distractions for Christmas. The message needs to get out...

They dont need to raise it to a high risk to raise awareness, but because it needs to be high risk! This is a powerful system that could be more severe than most spring storms!

[CrazyC83]

The 06Z update should be interesting.

From a technical point of view, the best move would be to stay with a Moderate Risk, with a 15H area from about Lake Charles to south of Birmingham +/- 50 miles. However, upgrading later may not have reliable messages being Christmas Day. So maybe start with a High Risk with a small 30H tornado area instead if there is any chance an upgrade would be needed later? They could always withdraw it by 20Z.

[CrazyC83]

This setup reminds me of February 5, 2008...closest parallel I can find given the dynamics that will be at play...at least from a potential point of view. Still some question marks, but I would be more aggressive than usual.

[psyclone]

i hope they don't move the high risk goal post just because it's Christmas. Cold season SVR events are tough calls but the alarm bells over this have been going off for awhile now. plus it's hitting in dixie alley...they've had plenty of recent reminders of their vulnerability in recent years so complacency should be held in check. Frankly, i'm not sure the public has a clue about moderate vs high risk. it's not conveyed well beyond the met/weather geek community so it's probably not a factor in the public's awareness or lack thereof. having said all of that, significant severe would not be a surprise tomorrow and perhaps again on wednesday.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This setup reminds me of February 5, 2008...closest parallel I can find given the dynamics that will be at play...at least from a potential point of view. Still some question marks, but I would be more aggressive than usual.

Just look back one year...April 15-16, 2011.

[CrazyC83]

NWS offices have been called back for full staffing.

000
NOUS42 KWNO 250358
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0350Z TUE DEC 25 2012

A REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...HAS BEEN DECLARED
STARTING AT 1200Z TUE DEC 25 2012 AND EXTENDING THROUGH 1200Z FRI
DEC 28 2012.

THE FOLLOWING NWS REGIONS ARE IMPACTED BY THIS CWD...

SOUTHERN REGION UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY
EASTERN REGION UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY

NCEP/NWSTG AND THE NCF ARE ALSO PARTICIPATING IN THIS CWD TO
ENSURE A RELIABLE FLOW OF WEATHER DATA. ALL SCHEDULED
SOFTWARE/HARDWARE/NETWORK CHANGES FOR THE IMPACTED OFFICES WILL
BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE CWD HAS ENDED. ANY EMERGENCY CHANGES WILL
BE EVALUATED AND APPROVED BY THE LOCAL/REGIONAL MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS. NWS OFFICES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR REGIONAL OFFICES FOR
FURTHER QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS CWD.


HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[CrazyC83]

06Z: MDT expanded but no upgrade.

SPC AC 250600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND PORTIONS
OF LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...A DANGEROUS CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS LIKELY
TO UNFOLD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION
AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK/ AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD...AMPLIFIES...AND
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY CLOSED/NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT
ADVANCES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY.

...GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING TO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT...WITH
LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS /AND SOME MIDDLE 60S F NEAR THE COAST/ BECOMING
INCREASINGLY PREVALENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.

INITIALLY...STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. THIS
INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT /MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL/...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE
BASED SEVERE THREAT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE UPPER TX COAST/SOUTHERN LA. WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
EARLY DAY TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA.

WITH TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MS/AL...WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE FOR AREAS WITHIN 150-200 MILES OF THE
GULF COAST. LESSER...AND A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SURFACE LOW LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...LARGELY OWING TO PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION NEAR/NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND A LESSER INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

REGARDLESS...THIS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD...WITH 70-100 KT AT 500 MB AND
110+ KT AT 250 MB...WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS. ACCENTUATED BY THE DEEPENING PHASE OF
THE CYCLONE...EVENTUAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND NEAR/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING QLCS...WHICH
SEEMS LIKELY TO CROSS LA AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF MS/AL THROUGH
TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUSTAINED BOWING SEGMENTS. FURTHERMORE...A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY
LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AND/OR EVENTUAL EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 200-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
COINCIDENT WITH A 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

WHILE THE OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...INSTABILITY WILL WANE LATE IN
THE PERIOD. EVEN SO...A SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS PARTS
OF AL...SOUTHEAST TN...AND WESTERN GA LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS INCLUDING COASTAL SC BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY.

..GUYER/SMITH.. 12/25/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0605Z (1:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[r22weiss]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 140 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
TEMPLE TEXAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W WILL COINCIDE WITH A
MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS TO PROMOTE MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...MEAD

[TexasF6]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 250815
ALZ000-FLZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-251800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHEAST TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM
EAST TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AND NORTHEAST.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..MEAD/BUNTING.. 12/25/2012

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 60/30.

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL
100 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SLIDELL
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 691...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER S-CNTRL
LA...APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-LATITUDE PERTURBATION
TRANSLATING ENEWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12Z LCH/LIX SOUNDINGS
SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
A WEAKENING CAP WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF ALREADY SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
EXIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.


...MEAD

[CrazyC83]

New SVR watch to the north, new TOR watch (PDS?) to the south.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E AND SE TX/WRN AND NRN LA/PART OF WEST
CENTRAL-SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...

VALID 251446Z - 251545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED BY 1450Z WITH
AFFECTED WFO/S FROM NE/E TX THROUGH NRN LA TO WEST CENTRAL-SWRN
MS...WITH HAIL AND A LOCAL STRONG WIND GUST POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SERN TX/UPPER TX
COAST AREA INTO SWRN LA TO THE WEST OF WW 692...AS AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z.

DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING TRENDS IN UPPER AIR DATA/SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL TX...WITH 140 METER/12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS AT 12Z AT MAF. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA WILL SPREAD EWD
INTO E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. AT 14Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD
FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR CLL THROUGH SRN LA /60-80 MILES N OF THE
GULF COAST/ AND INTO FAR SERN MS TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.

...NERN TX/NRN LA/WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MS...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONGOING TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT IN MUCH OF THE NERN QUARTER OF TX...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ADVANCE ENEWD INTO NRN LA AND EVENTUALLY WEST
CENTRAL-SWRN MS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AOA 8 C/KM PER 12Z TX AND LCH SOUNDINGS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 60 KT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE
SHALLOW.

...SERN TX TO SWRN LA...
STRONG VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-400 MS/S2 ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. THESE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 50 KT AND A 90-100 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET
TRANSLATES EWD INTO SE TX...LA AND SRN MS. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WELL
ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME
POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NWRN GULF.
HOWEVER...STRONG/DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO SERN TX THIS
MORNING...PROMOTING SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 12/25/2012


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31459601 32399515 32699297 32619093 32199065 31359145
31039175 30559251 29629263 29619335 29199464 28599583
28299625 29759624 31459601

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXC225-251530-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-121225T1530Z/
HOUSTON TX-
854 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CST FOR CENTRAL
HOUSTON COUNTY...

AT 851 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CROCKETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. A SECOND STORM ABOUT 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOVELADY WAS ALSO SHOWING ROTATION AND A POSSIBLE
TORNADO.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 9522 3158 9517 3154 9514 3151 9510
3149 9511 3147 9510 3147 9506 3145 9504
3140 9497 3130 9511 3101 9553 3128 9562
3159 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 229DEG 43KT 3130 9545

$$

39

[CrazyC83]

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
855 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EXTREME WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 855 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 691...WW 692...

DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH AFTN...N OF SFC
WARM FRONT OVER SE TX AND SRN LA. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT TSTM
ORGANIZATION.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...EDWARDS

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
904 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 859 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 2
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOVELADY OR 11 MILES NORTH OF TRINITY...OR 14
MILES SOUTH OF CROCKETT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOVELADY AND KENNARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 912 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF CROCKETT TO 16 MILES EAST OF
MADISONVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF
PALESTINE TO 21 MILES NORTH OF HUNTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...LOVELADY...KENNARD AND LATEXO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 60/60 - very close to PDS levels.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 920 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 692...WW 693...

DISCUSSION...SFC-BASED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT FCST TO INCREASE AND
SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW AREA THROUGH AFTN. WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO
SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMES OVERLAIN BY STRENGTHENING
MID-UPPER FLOW AND ASCENT...PER SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2207.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STG/DAMAGING TORNADOES
WITH ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. BOW-ECHO/QLCS CIRCULATIONS
ALSO MAY BECOME TORNADIC...IN ADDITION TO SVR GUST POTENTIAL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...EDWARDS

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST

* AT 942 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GROVETON...OR 23
MILES SOUTHWEST OF DIBOLL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GROVETON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

[TexasF6]

Looks like a building was destroyed in Houston County according to NWS storm reports...

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
957 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CST

* AT 955 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WELLS...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF DIBOLL...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EAST CENTRAL HOUSTON AND NORTHEASTERN TRINITY COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like a building was destroyed in Houston County according to NWS storm reports...

At least one. Cell is weakening. New TOR just posted.