Texas Winter 2012-2013

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That would be one hell of a Winter Storm in North Texas.

[HockeyTx82]

I know it's not snow or ice, but when was the last time we had such a great chance for rain?

[gboudx]

I know it's not snow or ice, but when was the last time we had such a great chance for rain?

On the NWS front page it appears there some large blue'ish/green'ish areas moving towards DFW. Anyone know what this is? Was the Mayan calendar off 1 week too early?

[natlib]

Larry Cosgrove got my hopes up this morning as he mentioned possible winter weather north of I-20 for Christmas eve. I hope.....I hope....I hope

[HockeyTx82]

I know it's not snow or ice, but when was the last time we had such a great chance for rain?

On the NWS front page it appears there some large blue'ish/green'ish areas moving towards DFW. Anyone know what this is? Was the Mayan calendar off 1 week too early?

I guess those new Dual Pol radars will get to be tested out today.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Sure did get quiet around here.

What a couple of model runs can do.... Don't give up on King Cold!

[HockeyTx82]

Sure did get quit around here.

What a couple of model runs can do.... Don't give up on King Cold!

Are they that bad? I looked on twisterdata but otherwise not sure what the others are showing............

[BigB0882]

When it gets quiet I always assume the models have backed off on whatever is getting everyone excited. Lol

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Sure did get quit around here.

What a couple of model runs can do.... Don't give up on King Cold!

Are they that bad? I looked on twisterdata but otherwise not sure what the others are showing............

We need the usual suspects to chime in. Wxman57 is probably doing a Gangman style dance on the prospects of a warm Christmas while Portastorm is putting up the cleats....

[CaptinCrunch]

Well it may not be much but anything helps!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD END DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SECOND ROUND OR RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALREADY TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. THIS NARROW BUT SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AROUND 50 MPH AND SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 2
AND 3Z. THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SINCE THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS
WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WE WILL CARRY HIGH POPS BUT
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO
EXIT MOST OF NORTH TEXAS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT PUTS ON THE BRAKES IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL MOST LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS LARGE
SCALE LIFT INCREASES IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT. ALL
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE
EXITS THE REGION AND SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES IN.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND
MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR NOW.

[Ntxw]

Yeah flip flopping like crazy. Radical flips without much run to run consistency. Wxman57 definitely likes the recent runs better. Models cannot pick which storm or high pressure systems to work with. Even the 3-5 days is highly questionable.

[wxman57]

Now that's better! Lows below freezing with dew points of 13F are just too cold for Christmas. Euro agrees on the backing off on the cold Christmas week.

[Ntxw]

Something we haven't seen in awhile, unbroken line of thunderstorms. Lets hope the southern end continues to build, the line is moving east/northeast

[ludosc]

That would be one hell of a Winter Storm in North Texas.

bring it

[horselattitudesfarm]

Looks like the storms went on a diet. If those storms were people they'd die of anorexia We got about 5 minutes of good hard rainfall. I was just beginning to feel normal when the rain stopped suddenly like someone turned off the shower-head. I actually got to see 2 month old dried baked-on debris get flushed out of my gutters.

[Cyclenall]

Sure did get quiet around here.

What a couple of model runs can do.... Don't give up on King Cold!

Well you all know that wouldn't be the stance I take . Everyone, give up on Elf Cold! I stopped following the models on Wednesday to wait 1 week to see clearly if the models keep pushing the "Arctic Outbreaks" back in the 11-16 day range. I notice that keeps happening for the US and southern Ontario and I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen over and over. Looks to be the case .

Yeah flip flopping like crazy. Radical flips without much run to run consistency. Wxman57 definitely likes the recent runs better. Models cannot pick which storm or high pressure systems to work with. Even the 3-5 days is highly questionable.

Always flipping keeping us on edge...I like it.

Now that's better! Lows below freezing with dew points of 13F are just too cold for Christmas. Euro agrees on the backing off on the cold Christmas week.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zdec14.gif

All I can hope for is record breaking warmth for myself for Christmas, maybe 20ºC. I would like a Christmas for once where I can wear my T-shirt outside...in Canada.

[Portastorm]

The Portastorm Weather Center was closed yesterday afternoon/evening due to the Holiday Honey Do List received from our chief financial officer (i.e. She Who Must Be Obeyed). That's why you saw no comment from your favorite Grey Goose-swilling pro mets at the PWC.

As for the weather, there is reason to be concerned about the earlier advertised polar front on or around Christmas for Texas. Yes, both King Euro and the GFS op runs have backed off on the scenario and now suggest a "decent" Canadian front the week after Christmas. Channeling our inner David Byrne: "You might ask yourself 'where did that cold front go?' " and "You might say to yourself 'is the GFS right or is it wrong?' " and "You might say to youself 'my God, where has winter gone?!' "

The PNA is now progged to barely go positive before resuming it's long-held negative state, and both the NAO and AO are progged to go neutral or slightly positive later this month. Really, the signs are all in the Heat Miser's favor at the moment. I'm still thinking model volatility is the main reason as the models struggle to grasp a changing pattern but we shall see. Our optimism from earlier this week though has definitely been tempered.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose mentions this similar thought from yesterday (Friday). Those models are hard to figure out:

"Today’s solutions have backed away from the arctic outbreak show on Thursday. However, I am still very cautious of this change. Several features will be in place late next week which could yet deliver some very cold air into Texas. We’ll see how the models resolve this situation in future runs and I’ll have an update on Monday."

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[wxman57]

I have taken control of the weather. Warmth will rule the world! OK, maybe not. The models have a habit of seeing a big cold snap 10-14 days out and then pushing it back and back and back. They see something, but it often remains in that 10-14 day range. For now, the really cold air remains in Alaska and NW Canada. The snow pack is actually a bit farther south today than it was a year ago:

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.ht ... 15&units=e

[Ntxw]

The teleconnections aren't actually that bad. Forecasts for +AO have not verified and likely won't as the AO has begun it's track down once again. It is the -EPO that remains to be seen, majority of models continue to show ridging from the Bering and they all do show the 1040+ hp's still but the latest runs do not fully develop the -EPO into western Canada. Again volatility is high in the models, they still cannot choose what piece of energy to do what even in the 3-5 day range. It's easy to tell because not only do they differ among each other, they differ drastically run to run.