Texas Winter 2012-2013

#741 Postby **HockeyTx82** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:47 pm

So what's the over-under on the next cold snap around Christmas time? :froze:

#742 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:49 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:So what's the over-under on the next cold snap around Christmas time?

^ Latest Euro shows what it was showing for several runs. Cyclogenesis over the southern plains around the 18th-20th with a deep system and cold air behind it. It is split flow so source region may not be as cold but would be a big storm threat to the eastern conus. Perhaps our next shot at wintry weather!

TeamPlayersBlue · #743 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:49 pm

2009 we had a big one here. It was FREEZING Christmas eve and windy. It wont top our snow from 2004 so some chilly weather and a cloudy day would be nice for me

#744 Postby **HockeyTx82** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:54 pm

Cool stuff

I think wxman57 should start new bike race in Wichita Falls.

The Colder then Hell 100! Perhaps we could sponsor him........... :wink:

#745 Postby **HockeyTx82** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:01 pm

Ntxw wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:So what's the over-under on the next cold snap around Christmas time?

^ Latest Euro shows what it was showing for several runs. Cyclogenesis over the southern plains around the 18th-20th with a deep system and cold air behind it. It is split flow so source region may not be as cold but would be a big storm threat to the eastern conus. Perhaps our next shot at wintry weather!

I thought wxman57 said something about us having a "W"arm Christmas. I guess things are back and forth right now. Around what date will we start getting some good resolution as to what we can expect?

#746 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:06 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:I thought wxman57 said something about us having a "W"arm Christmas. I guess things are back and forth right now. Around what date will we start getting some good resolution as to what we can expect?

See no support for gulf of Alaska low. Storms look to continue to push through the nation, as long as this is true cold air is dragged down slowly by each. Warm is not in the same sense as it was a week ago, warm-up is a better term

. Christmas is very far away though, my dartboard is just as good at predicting :cheesy:

Take it one week at a time :wink:

#747 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:13 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
I thought wxman57 said something about us having a "W"arm Christmas. I guess things are back and forth right now. Around what date will we start getting some good resolution as to what we can expect?

Well, we (I) can always dream of a Warm Christmas. Too early to have much confidence in the model runs that far out. Latest GFS indicates a cold shot around Christmas Eve, with lows 30-31F the 24th and 25th and a high in the low-mid 40s. But from this far out that cold shot could easily be a week later or not occur at all.

#748 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:42 pm

For those who live in SE Texas and like cold temperatures,here is something for you.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
119 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012

...AN AREAWIDE FREEZE WARNING IS EFFECT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

.THE COMBINATION OF COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION...WITH CALMING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...WILL PROVIDE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING CONDITIONS DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW EVENING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO...OR
BELOW...FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ATTENTION NEEDS
TO BE GIVEN TO PROTECT THE HEALTH OF SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND
OUTDOOR PETS.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-111500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FZ.W.0002.121211T0300Z-121211T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
119 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF HARRIS COUNTY...WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING CONDITIONS
AT AROUND 9 PM THAT WILL PERSIST APPROXIMATELY 10 HOURS.
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL EXPERIENCE THE ONSET OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND EXPERIENCE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 6 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

#749 Postby **Rgv20** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:46 pm

Ntxw wrote:
weatherguy425 wrote:Do you know where Joe Bastardi gets his weekly snowfall projections by cfsv2 members? Is it paid for, perhaps?

Those are done by Ryan Maue for weatherbell's site (JB's). It's a premium to use so not sure if we can post from it. Sometimes he tweets them for free which is safer to post just in case.

Edit: I can tell you though that latest the CFSv2 has Texas under some various snow cover several times for the next 45 days north of I-10 at various times.

Indeed Ntxw....This past week at least one of the ensemble members forecasts a Snow Apocalypse for Texas..This is the first year following the CFS long range snow forecast so I don't know how reliable it is.

TeamPlayersBlue · #750 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:47 pm

Yeah the sun has peeked through. When the sunsets the temps will plummet fast if the wind calms down

#751 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:55 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Yeah the sun has peeked through. When the sunsets the temps will plummet fast if the wind calms down

Euro has Houston sky overcast (mid and high clouds returning) by 8pm-9pm and continuing so through the night.

natlib · #752 Postby **natlib** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:22 pm

Forecast low for San Angelo tonight is 18. I may be wrong, but I don't think we got into the teens once last winter.

#753 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:31 pm

18z GFS clicked with the Euro. It shows a low with anomalous low heights and hudson bay block. If it and the euro are on to something, we could have the first "gulf" low (big ticket) of the winter season on the 18th +/- through the south and up the eastern seaboard.

#754 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:36 pm

That time frame is about the time we are supposed to get some Severe Weather here in SE TX according to Larry Cosgrove.

#755 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Dec 10, 2012 7:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Yeah the sun has peeked through. When the sunsets the temps will plummet fast if the wind calms down

Euro has Houston sky overcast (mid and high clouds returning) by 8pm-9pm and continuing so through the night.

Euro may be right. Some high clouds showing just before sunset. Nothing thick enough yet to stop the temps dropping. Already down to 45f here in W. Houston. I'll definitely be watching for the clouds. Hope we do see our first freeze tonight. After all it is that time of year Wxman57.

#756 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:24 am

Sure is chilly ... 27 degrees at 6 am at the Portastorm Weather Center.

Meanwhile, both the 0z GFS and King Euro continue to suggest a major cold front right before Christmas for Texas. Details obviously need to be honed between now and then but considering this scenario has been suggested for about 4-5 cycles of model runs, I'd say confidence is growing. It doesn't look like an "Arctic Outbreak" to me but just a strong Canadian front ... more or less like what we are experiencing now.

The GFS is real, real dry for much of Texas. Hope it's wrong but as long as the PNA is negative, it's probably right.

weatherdude1108 · #757 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:59 am

Chilly at my house, although my thermometer read 31.4 at 7am. The car fluctuated between 32 and 34 on the drive into work.

#758 Postby **HockeyTx82** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:13 am

16F here in Denton this morning when I got to work. Feels great!

From Denton Airport this morning.

12-11-12
Time:06:53
Wind NW 5
Temp:15
Dew point:11
Humidity:84%
Wind-chill:7

Snowman67 · #759 Postby **Snowman67** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:21 am

Got down to 28F here in Tomball. Hopefully just the start of a nice cold winter. Great bike riding weather

Correction, make that 27F.

SaskatchewanScreamer · #760 Postby **SaskatchewanScreamer** » Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:35 am

I must admit I'm impressed by the temps being posted down there (and grinning a wee bit too). Now I'm curious if we had been at -50C how cold it would have gotten at your location (am guessing though that we only get that cold when it is trapped up here?)

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