Texas Winter 2012-2013

[amawea]

:uarrow:

Uh ... actually, no. I'm not sure I understand what you're talking about. The GFS and Euro have consistently shown a Canadian front next week for Texas. The question of precipitation has been a item which has wavered some per the model guidance but the below normal temperatures for several days have not. Furthermore, many pro mets have suggested that next week ushers in a pattern change for the CONUS. They have indicated that the latter half of the month will be stormier and colder for much of the US.

Also, the models still suggest the possibility of snow for the Texas Panhandle early next week. I do not recall any models which showed snow for north Texas. And when I say "north Texas," I mean areas like Wichita Falls or Denton or Sherman or the DFW Metroplex. So again, not sure what you were looking at or why you're thinking there has been "flip flopping."

Portastorm, I'm not attacking your post, I'm attacking the GFS model. I have really been disappointed in it's reliability after day 5. The north Texas part that I mentioned was probably based on a forecaster that mentioned frozen precip from this coming early week situation when the models started hinting at this event.

[Ntxw]

Portastorm, I'm not attacking your post, I'm attacking the GFS model. I have really been disappointed in it's reliability after day 5. The north Texas part that I mentioned was probably based on a forecaster that mentioned frozen precip from this coming early week situation when the models started hinting at this event.

No model run ever had frozen precipitation for North Texas. Only that there was going to be a strong southern plains storm involved and that somebody could get frozen precipitation, the best likely hood would be the south plains of the panhandle and parts of Oklahoma which is still true.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Portastorm, I'm not attacking your post, I'm attacking the GFS model. I have really been disappointed in it's reliability after day 5. The north Texas part that I mentioned was probably based on a forecaster that mentioned frozen precip from this coming early week situation when the models started hinting at this event.

No model run ever had frozen precipitation for North Texas. Only that there was going to be a strong southern plains storm involved and that somebody could get frozen precipitation, the best likely hood would be the south plains of the panhandle and parts of Oklahoma which is still true.

What is your opinion for central Oklahoma Sunday through Wednesday? Thanks!

[Ntxw]

What is your opinion for central Oklahoma Sunday through Wednesday? Thanks!

Chilly and if there were to be snow/ice it would be NW half of Oklahoma. The closer to Kansas and the panhandle the better. Storm is still way up in Alaska so of no certainty It doesn't look to be a big snow event right now until it gets into the midwest.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

What is your opinion for central Oklahoma Sunday through Wednesday? Thanks!

Chilly and if there were to be snow/ice it would be NW half of Oklahoma. The closer to Kansas and the panhandle the better. Storm is still way up in Alaska so of no certainty It doesn't look to be a big snow event right now until it gets into the midwest.

Thank you
Let's hope it gives us a surprise; at least it's fun to watch!

[HockeyTx82]

Is this the source region?

http://newsminer.com/view/full_story/21 ... local_news

To cold for ice sculptures?

Here's wishing for a winter full of fun for us down south.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is cold. Front after front with Monday's being the initial transition and embedded shortwaves. Took a look at the Ensembles from both GFS and Euro, it's coming.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS continues to suggest a Colder and Stormier pattern setting up for the Lower 48 as we head until mid December. On the Graphics below the negative 500mb Heights Anomalies suggest that a series of fronts should make it down to the US.


0zGFS 6-10 Day 500mb Height Anomalies



0zGFS 11-15 Days 500mb Height Anomalies

[Ntxw]

^ Look at that blocking. For whatever reason October has been the key month when looking at the AO/NAO indicator for DJF. This October was behind only 1976 and 2009, and has remained that way since.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose is in board with the flip!



http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Cyclenall]

Here in lies the problem with the gfs "10-15 day period". It's always the 10 to 15 day range, then pow! At days 4 or 5 everything does a 180. Wasn't it just 3 or 4 days ago that the Tuesday of next week time frame was supposed to be brining cold and even snow to the Panhandle and possibly north Texas? Flip flop, flip flop! That's all it's good for in this pattern. Like I said before, all this amounts to is the movie Ground Hog Day.

I notice the same thing, the GFS says major cold in 10 days but then its pushed back and remains there. The latest runs are showing major cold but its around the day 10 mark again. The winter storms that its showing for us here in southern Ontario look incredible and I can only imagine the amount of snow they would bring as the lake effect snow machine would be pushed into overdrive. What was strange was looking at the 2m temps. it wasn't even that cold yet it was 510 dm at the 500 mb level! Confused there but warm is preferred .

Its pretty sad when the snowpack from last year is beating this years:
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/3625/snowdepth2011.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/9719/snowdepth2012.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Let's hope this winter starts getting its act together.

Don't show JB that comparison, he would have a heart attack! Good find but I do notice the parries in Canada, buried in snow now.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Uh ... actually, no. I'm not sure I understand what you're talking about. The GFS and Euro have consistently shown a Canadian front next week for Texas. The question of precipitation has been a item which has wavered some per the model guidance but the below normal temperatures for several days have not. Furthermore, many pro mets have suggested that next week ushers in a pattern change for the CONUS. They have indicated that the latter half of the month will be stormier and colder for much of the US.

Also, the models still suggest the possibility of snow for the Texas Panhandle early next week. I do not recall any models which showed snow for north Texas. And when I say "north Texas," I mean areas like Wichita Falls or Denton or Sherman or the DFW Metroplex. So again, not sure what you were looking at or why you're thinking there has been "flip flopping."

Portastorm, I'm not attacking your post, I'm attacking the GFS model. I have really been disappointed in it's reliability after day 5. The north Texas part that I mentioned was probably based on a forecaster that mentioned frozen precip from this coming early week situation when the models started hinting at this event.

No harm, no foul! No worries. I just wanted to point out to you that I don't believe the GFS has really flip-flopped all that much. The differences have been more subtle. Keep the faith. It is going to get colder.

[CaptinCrunch]

Boy's at the NWS FTW may be lowering the forecasted temps for next week if models continue to look colder the closer we get to Sunday.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SWING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SENDING A
STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE
GFS AND NAM ARE THE FASTEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN
GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE TIMINGS...THUS
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH ONE IS MORE ACCURATE. BUT
EITHER WAY THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND OPTED TO SLOW THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT BACK A FEW HOURS. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
FRONT WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY THAN
ANY OTHER PART OF THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE PROFILES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND KEPT LOW POPS
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT DID INCREASE POPS TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK THE BEST. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD QUICKLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOW THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIGHT BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS MUCH COLDER TONIGHT
THAT LAST NIGHT/S RUN AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED. PREVIOUSLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOW THE GFS
IS SHOWING A LITTLE INCREASE IN MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME AND
CONTINUE TO ASSESS WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL REACH THE 40S BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE RED RIVER
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 40S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

THE CANADIAN FRONT WILL PUSH DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY. ALL
THE MODELS HAVE ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER THEIR TRACKS AND TIMING OF THIS SECOND PIECE OF
ENERGY DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. THE GFS IS QUICK TO RETURN MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND BRINGS ABUNDANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH SUNDAYS FRONT PUSHING DEEP
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY CHANCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

[iorange55]

Models are definitely trending colder (as always). Might even be some flurries in some parts of North Texas early in the week. It looks like the models are showing the cold lasting awhile, too!

Also, I wouldn't mind it if Santa wanted to give us a little bit of snow sometime before Christmas...or on Christmas.

[DonWrk]

I'm so ready for a big system to be forecasted and watch the models left and right the days leading up to it! Hope it happens sometime before December is over.

[vbhoutex]

Its pretty sad when the snowpack from last year is beating this years:
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/3625/snowdepth2011.jpg

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/9719/snowdepth2012.jpg


Let's hope this winter starts getting its act together.

And this comparison is exactly why I don't think we will be getting as cold as some are hoping(including myself). No snow cover means major modification of the temps as they plunge South towards us. I know that it isn't the only parameter involved but it has a lot to do with it when you get this far South with cold temperatures.

[wxman57]

And this comparison is exactly why I don't think we will be getting as cold as some are hoping(including myself). No snow cover means major modification of the temps as they plunge South towards us. I know that it isn't the only parameter involved but it has a lot to do with it when you get this far South with cold temperatures.

Nice to see you're coming around to my way of thinking, vbhoutex. Unfortunately, with so much cold air already building in western Canada, I know that the pattern, including the snow line, across the U.S. can change very quickly in the weeks to come.

[Portastorm]

I'm so disappointed to see my colleague -- vbhoutex -- has joined the dark side. I guess too many months of drought and last year's lack of winter have turned his wintry optimism into a drizzle of depression.

Meanwhile with all of this chatter here about the GFS flip flopping, let's be clear. It hasn't flip-flopped much, if at all, about the temperatures next week. What it has been changeable on is what to do with the low pressure center(s) and any attendant moisture. The just issued 12z GFS operational run is back to what it suggested yesterday and shows a chance of a flurry or two in north Texas and Oklahoma. Also looks deeper (again) with the trough. We shall see.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 12Z GFS appears to be a tiny bit more favorable for light snow/flurries for parts of Oklahoma and northwestern Texas. Low & mid level moisture in the post frontal airmass appears to be better! Anybody else seeing this? Also, this is my opinion and shouldn't be considered official.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I'm so disappointed to see my colleague -- vbhoutex -- has joined the dark side. I guess too many months of drought and last year's lack of winter have turned his wintry optimism into a drizzle of depression.

Meanwhile with all of this chatter here about the GFS flip flopping, let's be clear. It hasn't flip-flopped much, if at all, about the temperatures next week. What it has been changeable on is what to do with the low pressure center(s) and any attendant moisture. The just issued 12z GFS operational run is back to what it suggested yesterday and shows a chance of a flurry or two in north Texas and Oklahoma. Also looks deeper (again) with the trough. We shall see.

Nice, I just said something about this too! We can only hope