Texas Winter 2012-2013

[somethingfunny]

I'm entertaining myself by reading last year's thread. The lead-up to the snow event just northwest of DFW on December 3/4, 2011 begins here: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=111042&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=300

It's pretty fun to look back at which models sniffed out what first, and what we all thought about them, and how the WFOs analyzed things as the forecast evolved.

[Cyclenall]

Hopfully this is the pattern we see through early March. As much as we all hope for some winter weather I'm just hoping for any type, we need the rain so bad as the drought has returned thanks to the driest Sept-Nov on record and the warmest November on record. I think this ENSO neutral will transition to a El Nino pattern before spring.

Put your disappointed helmet on now I recommend .

It is sad to see the 80s leaving us, possibly for the rest of 2012...

Don't think like that, must think positive that the 80s will not be leaving you guys for the reminder of 2012!

3. Lastly it is a full pattern change, so don't let the warm mongering crew bring you down! Follow the guidance of good ole palpatine down in scenic southwest Austin!

Not sure about the full pattern change as this is stated a lot but being pro-warmth is not necessarily a downer for winter, your furnace will thank you (do those things even exist in Texas?).

Lol, what an odd 18z GFS run. lost the system almost entirely

Maybe next winter.

A little off topic (with regards to the early week system) but the GFS has been consistent on building up some really cold air in Western Canada/Alaska in the long range 10+ days out

12zGFS Ensemble Temperature Departure forecast valid for Sunday December 16....Up to -21F below normal! *Image Cut*

What's neat is more than not actually show warmer than colder for not only Texas but here in southern Ontario but its more split for us here. That traditional tongue of arctic air spilling out from Alaska and other regions pattern would give Texas more cold anomalies then Ontario for example but mainly the east. That can mean only one thing, more snow in Texas then in southern Ontario during those phases .

[CaptinCrunch]

Hopfully this is the pattern we see through early March. As much as we all hope for some winter weather I'm just hoping for any type, we need the rain so bad as the drought has returned thanks to the driest Sept-Nov on record and the warmest November on record. I think this ENSO neutral will transition to a El Nino pattern before spring.

Put your disappointed helmet on now I recommend .

Well my rain bubble just busted, looks more like a cold dry passage now

THE BIG STORY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE CANADIAN FRONT
THAT WILL COME SCREAMING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT TONIGHT IS FASTER WITH AN ARRIVAL NOW ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS
AND GEM AND WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS/GEM FOR NOW AS THESE FRONTS
TYPICALLY DO ARRIVE FASTER. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL BE REACHED EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR ANY HOPE OF DECENT RAIN WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY WITH PWATS BELOW AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE PWATS ARE 1-1.25 INCHES. HAVE
POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA...THEN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. AFTER THAT...A RAPID DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE
ECMWF IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH POST- FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BEHIND THE
FRONT DUE TO THE QUICK DRYING TREND ADVERTISED BY THE OTHER
MODELS. IF THERE WAS TO BE SOME POST- FRONTAL PRECIP...THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS IT WOULD BE A COLD RAIN IN OUR AREA. HOPEFULLY WE WILL
REACH SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PRECIP BY
THE WEEKEND BUT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE CHANCE FOR
BENEFICIAL RAIN LOOKS PRETTY BLEAK.

[gboudx]

Well my rain bubble just busted, looks more like a cold dry passage now

Leprechauns, unicorns and pot o'gold.

[Portastorm]

Heh, wxman57 is absolutely going to hate this 12z GFS operational run.

At the 10-15 day period, all I have to say is bbrrrrrrr!



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[Ntxw]

Geez, last winter must've taken quite a toll, if one didn't know they'd think winter is never coming back and we'll be on the verge of a planetary meltdown to the year 3000 and H2O has all but evaporated into space based on doubts here . Starting next week (As Portastorm's posts above says) bears watching!

I can't imagine what this board would be like back in the 30s and 50s

______________________________________________________
Edit: Some numbers for next Monday's front from the GFS.

DFW - Frontal passage Sunday evening, temps fall to freezing overnight and warms to the mid 40s Monday. A hard freeze is likely for all areas except immediate urban counties.

Austin - Frontal passage Sunday night, temps fall to the mid 30s and may warm up to 50. May get a freeze Tuesday morning here.

Houston - Frontal passage Monday morning likely before sunrise, here too will struggle to get above 50. Mid 30s for the urban areas and the usual cold spots in the northern tier may freeze

If clouds linger you can chop a couple of degrees on the highs, if clears faster take a few from the lows.

[amawea]

Heh, wxman57 is absolutely going to hate this 12z GFS operational run.

At the 10-15 day period, all I have to say is bbrrrrrrr!

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/3506/12zgfs1115day850mbtempa.gif

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Here in lies the problem with the gfs "10-15 day period". It's always the 10 to 15 day range, then pow! At days 4 or 5 everything does a 180. Wasn't it just 3 or 4 days ago that the Tuesday of next week time frame was supposed to be brining cold and even snow to the Panhandle and possibly north Texas? Flip flop, flip flop! That's all it's good for in this pattern. Like I said before, all this amounts to is the movie Ground Hog Day.

[Portastorm]

Uh ... actually, no. I'm not sure I understand what you're talking about. The GFS and Euro have consistently shown a Canadian front next week for Texas. The question of precipitation has been a item which has wavered some per the model guidance but the below normal temperatures for several days have not. Furthermore, many pro mets have suggested that next week ushers in a pattern change for the CONUS. They have indicated that the latter half of the month will be stormier and colder for much of the US.

Also, the models still suggest the possibility of snow for the Texas Panhandle early next week. I do not recall any models which showed snow for north Texas. And when I say "north Texas," I mean areas like Wichita Falls or Denton or Sherman or the DFW Metroplex. So again, not sure what you were looking at or why you're thinking there has been "flip flopping."

[horselattitudesfarm]

Its pretty sad when the snowpack from last year is beating this years:


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Let's hope this winter starts getting its act together.

[Ntxw]

Let's hope this winter starts getting its act together.

By this time next week this year will make last year a joke as the northern and central plains will be covered. More importantly Canada beats last year by a mile being source region of cold.

[Portastorm]

Let's hope this winter starts getting its act together.

By this time next week this year will make last year a joke as the northern and central plains will be covered. More importantly Canada beats last year by a mile being source region of cold.

Absolutely, Ntxw. I couldn't agree more with you. This next system is going to lay down a very healthy swath of snow in the Rockies and Plains.

Extra shipments of Grey Goose are being ordered today by the vodka-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center. They're expecting some very chilly weather during the last half of December!

[South Texas Storms]

But Porta, we can't have any winter "fun" here if we can't get any moisture to mix with the colder temperatures!
It's been so dry for the past few months now. We need that to change soon!

[orangeblood]

Let's hope this winter starts getting its act together.

By this time next week this year will make last year a joke as the northern and central plains will be covered. More importantly Canada beats last year by a mile being source region of cold.

Right on Ntxw....the source region, particularly this one being directly to our North as opposed to Alaska, being buried in snow is much more important for establishing cold than sporadic areas of snow cover further south across the US. The EC and GFS ensembles are now catching on to extreme cold building in the 8-10 day range....some places 35 F below normal across southern Canada!!

I would expect a heck of a fight between this extreme warmth and cold to begin early next week and continuing over the next few weeks. This should advance that glacier/snow field further south across the US with time....winter is back

[somethingfunny]

Yep. Last winter got started rather early; we had a big cold snap in early December and that snowfall on the 3rd/4th. Even the Rio Grande Valley had its' first freeze in late November. There was an upper-level low that dropped snow on parts of Mississippi and Tennessee in November too. As you might recall, it didn't mean much for the rest of that winter.

I'd much rather have this pattern change occur in mid-December, rather than waste the best 500mb setups of the season on November and early December, before we even hit the Winter Solstice. I think things are pointing in a good direction for January.

[wxman57]

Its pretty sad when the snowpack from last year is beating this years:
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/3625/snowdepth2011.jpg

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http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/9719/snowdepth2012.jpg

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Let's hope this winter starts getting its act together.

Interesting comparison. Yeah, really sad...

[Portastorm]

I know wxman57 ... that lack of snow cover breaks your heart, doesn't it?!

One other item of interest to mention since orangeblood brought forth the comment about very cold and warm airmasses clashing next week ... that ought to increase the baroclinity of any low pressure systems which run through the trough. That, in turn, should increase QPF amounts for those lucky enough to get precipitation (be it snow or rain).

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I know wxman57 ... that lack of snow cover breaks your heart, doesn't it?!

One other item of interest to mention since orangeblood brought forth the comment about very cold and warm airmasses clashing next week ... that ought to increase the baroclinity of any low pressure systems which run through the trough. That, in turn, should increase QPF amounts for those lucky enough to get precipitation (be it snow or rain).

Is this true for Oklahoma?

[Portastorm]

I know wxman57 ... that lack of snow cover breaks your heart, doesn't it?!

One other item of interest to mention since orangeblood brought forth the comment about very cold and warm airmasses clashing next week ... that ought to increase the baroclinity of any low pressure systems which run through the trough. That, in turn, should increase QPF amounts for those lucky enough to get precipitation (be it snow or rain).

Is this true for Oklahoma?

I think you're going to be a lot closer to the storm track next week, graysonco.wx, than most of the rest of us will be. After that ... hard to say. And by that I mean any surface wave or low along the front which would move west to east. Most progs should this front blasting into the Gulf which would supress the jet pretty far south. I know the Euro operational run was holding back some energy to the west of Texas with some suggestion of a cold, overrunning rain for us in the southern half of the state on Wednesday. Also, we often see surface low formation in the western Gulf when upper level energy traverses west to east and gets sheared out and then a surface low forms in the Gulf.

We shall see.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

[quote="Portastorm"][quote="GRAYSONCO.WX"][quote="Portastorm"]I know wxman57 ... that lack of snow cover breaks your heart, doesn't it?!

Thank you for the feedback. I noticed that the ECMWF has energy traversing across parts of Oklahoma & Texas Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. It will be interesting to see if there's enough lift and moisture for precipitation. If anything does occur here at OU, I'll post some pictures

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

To warm your snow lovin' hearts: https://twitter.com/weathernetwork/status/276437830593544192/photo/1 Edmonton (and what is falling just North of here).

Now for having to live through the temps that will send the above South of the International border I want to see some really good snowmen from you folks when it gets down there!!!