Texas Winter 2012-2013

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wher can we get an update on the MJO? Any help there for us?

[Ntxw]

Wher can we get an update on the MJO? Any help there for us?

MJO is incoherent at this time as is the case without El Nino or La Nina. The drivers appears to be the global wind oscillations, which is currently in high amplitude mode (bigger ridges and troughs aka blocking).

MJO forecasts here
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thank you very much sir!

80F here, my run was exhausting.

[Portastorm]

Wher can we get an update on the MJO? Any help there for us?

MJO is incoherent at this time as is the case without El Nino or La Nina. The drivers appears to be the global wind oscillations, which is currently in high amplitude mode (bigger ridges and troughs aka blocking).

MJO forecasts here
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

The strength of the MJO pulse matters and the stronger the pulse, the more likely one sees pronounced impacts on given areas per the eight cycles. And as Ntxw said, even though the MJO is in favorable cycles (or I believe they may be called octants) for rainfall for us, the strength of the pulse is nominal.

[weatherguy425]

Well it is a little encouraging that the ECMWF has trended ever-so-slightly deeper with Sunday/Monday's system. However, ensembles of both major globals aren't all that supportive of a closed system. Add to this the fact that today's runs have already begun backing off on a positive PNA slightly, and I'm just not sure when we will see our first significant winter system on the South Plains.

[Ntxw]

Latest GFS is still supporting a powerful storm to effect the southern plains with heavy rain on the warm end and frozen precipitation on the nw side of the system one week from today.

[weatherdude1108]

This is more encouraging from Bob Rose than his blog last Friday!

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Rgv20]

0zGFS continues to forecast some mighty cold air in Western Canada....It is still ways off in the long range tho.


0zGFS 850mb Temperature Anomalies forecast valid for Sunday 12/16/12.

[gboudx]

Relevant "Winter" part of jeff's email:

Long Range:

After weeks warmth…some record…across much of the nation, the upper air pattern looks to finally break down from its fast progressive west to east flow to more amplification of a ridge of high pressure off the western US coast. This newly developing upper air pattern will shut off the parade of storm system into the W coast and direct the development of a downstream trough over the western US and plains. Cold air which has been bottled up in NW Canada will be unleashed into the US by this weekend and spread rapidly down the plains and into TX by early next week. Long range global models are having a hard time resolving the timing of this strong old front and how cold the post frontal air mass might be. Given past history with shallow cold air masses, will take the faster and colder solutions and expect a strong front to push into SE TX sometime early Monday and sweep off the coast during the day. Highs will be prior to the front with rapidly falling temperatures behind the boundary into the 40’s and 50’s under strong cold air advection. Some degree of energy does look to lag back in the base of the trough over the SW US post front which may keep clouds around behind the front and temper the temperature rise during the day. Still plenty of time to fine tune the affects of this pattern change and eventual air mass change…but finally some longer lasting cold air looks to be headed this way.

[Portastorm]

Interesting differences between the operational runs of 0z GFS and 0z Euro for next week's front.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[iorange55]

All in all...things are looking up! Colder weather is a safe bet next week, and rain chances appear to be decent. It doesn't look like (right now) North Texas will get any wintry precip fun this time, but hopefully this is a sign of things to come!

I'm just glad I'll be able to actually enjoy some hot chocolate next week.

[orangeblood]

With the NAO forecast to tank, you would think this southern plains storm has the potential to take more of a southerly route across the country. Rather then the Oklahoma to Detroit route that the EC shows.

[vbhoutex]

Interesting differences between the operational runs of 0z GFS and 0z Euro for next week's front.

http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/2622/00zgfs500mbhghtna168.gif

http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/9224/00zeuro500mbhghtna168.gif

I am much more inclined to believe the first map considering lack of same type of progression as the second one so far this year. Also expect modification at all levels since there is a lack of snow cover all the way to the Canadian border or at least Northern tier of states.

[weatherdude1108]

It is raining BIG drops at work in North Austin!

Granted it is not snow or ice (since we are in a Winter thread), but it is moisture none-the-less! Haven't seen this in over a MONTH, so I have forgotten what it looks like.

[Portastorm]

Interesting differences between the operational runs of 0z GFS and 0z Euro for next week's front.

http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/2622/00zgfs500mbhghtna168.gif

http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/9224/00zeuro500mbhghtna168.gif

I am much more inclined to believe the first map considering lack of same type of progression as the second one so far this year. Also expect modification at all levels since there is a lack of snow cover all the way to the Canadian border or at least Northern tier of states.

True but this system should be laying down a fair spread of snowcover to the north and northwest of the state. That *could* temper significant moderation.

Highs in the 40s for North Texas and 50s for south central Texas in a week is a distinct possibility and far from a reach based on guidance at the moment.

[CaptinCrunch]

This morning AFD from NWS FTW

EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OFFERED
BY THE GFS THE LAST TWO DAYS. IT APPEARS A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND HELP SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SPILL SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE FRONT LIKELY ARRIVING HERE EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS TIMING STILL LOOKS TOO SLOW...AND WE CONTINUE TO
PREFER THE FASTER ECMWF. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING AND
HANGING BACK...THIS INCREASES OUR RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THIS PATTERN WOULD CREATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL
KEEPS POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW...AND ADDITIONAL CONSISTENCY
IN MODEL RUNS WILL ADD MORE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
WINTER PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR CWA. RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE THE
COLUMN COOLS BELOW FREEZING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING
AND WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY...SO THE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
50S ARE A BIT MISLEADING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR
FREEZING. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S DESPITE CLEARING
SKIES...AND NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT MAY FEATURE TEMPS IN THE 20S.

Hopfully this is the pattern we see through early March. As much as we all hope for some winter weather I'm just hoping for any type, we need the rain so bad as the drought has returned thanks to the driest Sept-Nov on record and the warmest November on record. I think this ENSO neutral will transition to a El Nino pattern before spring.

[weatherguy425]

The track of this potentially closed low is going to be vital for my Lubbock location. Northern track would likely dry slot us, while a southern track could give my area a decent snow and severe weather for eastern Texas. Thoughts? Liking the 00z ECMWF , hopefully it keeps it up.

[Portastorm]

The track of this potentially closed low is going to be vital for my Lubbock location. Northern track would likely dry slot us, while a southern track could give my area a decent snow and severe weather for eastern Texas. Thoughts? Liking the 00z ECMWF , hopefully it keeps it up.

For your sake (and for my Tech freshman son's sake), I'd like to see y'all get some wintry weather. But I'm kinda in agreement with vbhoutex in that we haven't seen energy dig that far south this fall. What the 0z Euro is showing would be unusual (at least for this year). The trend has been for the vorticity in these systems to stay on a track north of Texas. In this case, a "Panhandle Hooker" may be in the works but that still would leave LBB on the wrong end for wintry weather.

Let's see how things develop the next few days with the ops runs as well as the ensembles.

[weatherguy425]

Not saying that these projections will come true, but prior to this models would have already lost the system, before even getting into the medium range. Hopefully models will come into agreement and the system does take a southern route.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is pretty much in line with the 00Z Euro as far as the timing of the front across TX on Monday. It indicates maybe a few snow flurries in the panhandle (maybe more so with secondary disturbance on Tuesday) but that's about it. It is sad to see the 80s leaving us, possibly for the rest of 2012...