Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

Great post Rgv20! It depicts the potential for rex blocking very well. I'd like to see the Euro ensembles join in too. I think we have one more storm to flush out of the GOA next week and the WPAC jet will kick in the block.

Actually, what we're seeing in the latest GFS ensembles and the operational runs, to some extent, is a split-flow regime coming by mid December. That certainly should pique the interest of Texas winter weather fans, because that's the kind of pattern you want to see to make that happen.

[Ntxw]

Actually, what we're seeing in the latest GFS ensembles and the operational runs, to some extent, is a split-flow regime coming by mid December. That certainly should pique the interest of Texas winter weather fans, because that's the kind of pattern you want to see to make that happen.

I like how the GFS/GEFS, and Canadian tonight are agreeing on the stout +PNA change. Euro is popping it up too, nice trending by them towards each other. Question for you Porta, isn't a rex block and split flow the same thing? I always thought split flow was a bit different as arctic air is kept away but an active jet cuts underneath.
GGEM


ECMWF


Looks like we may have some late night model watching coming.

[AggieSpirit]

Ladies and Gentlemen: Winter 2012/2013 has been cancelled. We are going to stick with quasi-fall weather through next March. Enjoy many 75+ degree days to come!

[weatherdude1108]

It's SPRINKLING!!!

[wxman57]

Ladies and Gentlemen: Winter 2012/2013 has been cancelled. We are going to stick with quasi-fall weather through next March. Enjoy many 75+ degree days to come!

My kind of post! A record 83 deg in Houston yesterday made for great biking weather (45 miles). We were still a little cool at the start (only 77 deg). Perhaps it'll be a bit warmer today. Latest GFS backed off on the cold front Tuesday. Just a weak shot of semi-cool air now.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

((((((Texan Snow Lovers)))))

Heat Misers

btw I just don't get how the heat misers down there LIKE drought????????????

[wxman57]

((((((Texan Snow Lovers)))))

Heat Misers

btw I just don't get how the heat misers down there LIKE drought????????????

I've measured almost 59" of rain so far this year, which is already greater the yearly average rainfall for my area. It's been a little dry the past 2 months, but nothing like 2011 when I measured less than 30" of rain. And I never said I like drought, though I don't like to bike in the rain.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I can tell there weren't any farmers/ranchers in your family Wxman.

Strange how your area of Houston has done so well and other areas haven't.

[weatherdude1108]

That's what I thought.

Must be nice for him.

[Portastorm]

Ladies and Gentlemen: Winter 2012/2013 has been cancelled. We are going to stick with quasi-fall weather through next March. Enjoy many 75+ degree days to come!

Alright, we have our first "winter=cancel" post! I knew it was only a matter of time.

Let's see if you're holding on to this school of thought come later this month. I'm fairly confident you'll be singing a different tune.

Meanwhile, the 0z Euro operational run shows a stout cold front around Dec. 7-8. Everything looks "on" for the pattern change ahead.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I should mention as a daughter/grand daughter (of god knows how many generations of farmers...who also had other professions) that here we would never ever dare complain about rain (unless we are getting too much which, until recently, was practically unknown). I've made the mistake of complaining about rain ruining some outdoor event (one learns never ever to do that when farmers are present).

Not to dump on Wxman (because I know his profession and pay isn't dependent on rain falling on his land) but those thoughts always come to those of us who are more connected to farming.

I know he doesn't wish drought on his State (just on his bike riding times .

[Portastorm]

For those of you who are on the ledge and ready to jump ... slowly back away, take a breath and read pro met Larry Cosgrove's thoughts here:

http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-december-1-2012-at-6-30-p-m-ct-part-2

[Ntxw]

Does this not scream pattern change or what?

FW AFD this morning

MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE MODELS FINALLY INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE
ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA BECOMING DISLODGED. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN
A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE MAP WITH RESPECT TO THE PARTICULARS IN
THE FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE...A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...BUT TODAY THE CANADIAN HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE UKMET/GFS IS WEAKER AND STALLS IT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BY
MONDAY THE GFS UNLEASHES ARCTIC AIR INTO THE PLAINS...BUT THE
ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS SURGE AND HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT UPPER
PATTERN FORECAST. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE FORECAST BEYOND
5 DAYS IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...AND THERE IS LITTLE CHOICE BUT
TO TREND TEMPERATURES TOWARD CLIMO FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SO WHILE THE TEMP FORECAST SHOWS COOLING...THIS IS REALLY AN
ARTIFACT CAUSED BY TRYING TO FORECAST WITHOUT A RELIABLE SIGNAL IN
THE MODELS. WILL ENTERTAIN THE IDEA THAT A WEAK FRONT MAY AFFECT
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY AND KEEP 20 POPS IN
FORECAST. AGAIN THIS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE...AND IF POPS WERE NOT
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY THEY WOULD HAVE PROBABLY
BEEN LEFT OUT.

[Portastorm]

The good, ol' mets out of the NWSFO Fort Worth ... always providing a dose of meteorological sanity to the mix. Excellent!

Nice add, Ntxw!

Perhaps when some here see today's 12z GFS operational run they might take a little more heart. It has the 0-degree 850mb isotherm bi-secting the state at 216 hours.



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[iorange55]

I guess it's time for me to come out of a timeout and apologize to the family for being a negative Nancy.

Negative Nancy is moving out and Positive Pete is moving in! Positive Pete is liking the (possible) upcoming pattern change.

[Ntxw]

Euro is giving in away from the GOA troughiness. At the end of it's run for several days now it's been trying to spill the motherlode of cold into North America.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

nasty nasty nasty nasty weather up here now (Saskatchewan is now either getting snow or freezing rain) which will probably bode well for the United States.

[vbhoutex]

The good, ol' mets out of the NWSFO Fort Worth ... always providing a dose of meteorological sanity to the mix. Excellent!

Nice add, Ntxw!

Perhaps when some here see today's 12z GFS operational run they might take a little more heart. It has the 0-degree 850mb isotherm bi-secting the state at 216 hours.



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Negative Nancy checking in here. I'll believe it when I see it. Currently 81f after a high of 83f. Don't know if we officially tied the record or not, but that is the record for today.

[Rgv20]

The ECMWF for the past couple of runs has been consistent on building up some cold weather up in Alaska by days 9-10.

12zECMWF Forecast 850mb Temperature Anomalies day 9


12zECMWF Forecast 850mb Temperature Anomalies day 10...As much as -20C below normal showing up!




12zECMWF Forecast 500mb Heights day 10......Blocking pattern setting up nicely

[Ntxw]

This is for entertainment purposes only. First time this season (Frankly since two winters ago) we've see such a system in good resolution on the models.