Texas Fall 2012

[weatherdude1108]

Looking at the long-range, I can pretty much gamble money on that we will have the big goose-egg for precip at our house for November. I cannot remember EVER having a dry November without a drop of rain To prove it I looked at the Lavon Dam Climatology records back to 1950. November 1950 had .06" so it looks like we are less than that.

Nothing at my house either, or the Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom weather stations either so far in the month of November. The fact that we have not received enough rain in November to even measure a TRACE, is truly unbelievable, and a little concerning IMO!

[Portastorm]

Looking at the long-range, I can pretty much gamble money on that we will have the big goose-egg for precip at our house for November. I cannot remember EVER having a dry November without a drop of rain To prove it I looked at the Lavon Dam Climatology records back to 1950. November 1950 had .06" so it looks like we are less than that.

Nothing at my house either, or the Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom weather stations either so far in the month of November. The fact that we have not received enough rain in November to even measure a TRACE, is truly unbelievable, and a little concerning IMO!

Actually, according to KVUE's Mark Murray, we're now in the longest stretch of consecutive days without any rainfall for the year!

[Rgv20]

Speaking of Rain, the GFS has been advertising wet weather for my area for the past couple of days Looks like Friday would be the best chance for rain in my area.


12zGFS 120hr Forecast Total Rainfall ending Sunday Morning.



12zCMC 120hr Forecast Total Rainfall ending Sunday Morning....12zECMWF Rainfall forecast is close to the CMC's.

[Rgv20]

This is just for viewing pleasure This is just one run of the individual 12zGFS Ensemble Members.

[Ntxw]

I see nothing new from the models. Don't worry too much about the surface looks, the upcoming pattern is set up perfectly to deliver a long period of arctic air. 0z GFS at the 5h level is no different with blocking. It's changing around every run regarding vorticity and storms so not worth bother taking any for gospel until a few days out with such amplified pattern filled with complexities!

I think PWC should put out a news conference after Thanksgiving

[HockeyTx82]

From the NWS in Ft. Worth, TX

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2012/
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST AND ANY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AND
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE A COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS OFF FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM. BY
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE RIDGING PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...A
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO WILL APPROACH NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE THIS WILL SPREAD WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...STRONG CAPPING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL HELP SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES ARE A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP THINGS CAPPED...WHILE STRONGEST FORCING
WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM NORTH TEXAS. THIS ARGUES FOR LOW POPS
BEING THAT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE
FRONT ITSELF. HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND AND WILL ONLY MENTION 20
POPS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IF IT APPEARS STRONGER FORCING
WILL COME INTO PLAY THEN WE MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS A BIT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH LOW 60S ON SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL WARM UP INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER INTERESTING WITH NORTH TEXAS POTENTIALLY
BEING AFFECTED BY A COUPLE OF SHOTS OF COLDER AIR. THE FIRST WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY BUT UNFORTUNATELY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG RAIN MAKER. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD
BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THIS
AND IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

DUNN

[Portastorm]

The GFS operational runs are just way too inconsistent about next week. One run shows blowtorch and the next doesn't. I'm putting my two pesos on King Euro and namely, the king's ensembles.

Below is from the 0z Euro, the ensemble run which shows a major full latitude trough over the nation's midsection, including the southern Plains and Texas, and high pressure on the West Coast poking up into Alaska. That will bring down whatever air Capt. Sig and the F/V Northwestern are breathing right now!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Eyeballing Houston....and working HARD on fixing those fans!!!! We've had it all today and lots of it.....we will be EVER SO HAPPY, in the spirit of Christmas , to give it ALL to you folks (and the temps that come with it ).

rain
freezing rain
graupel
hail
big fat snowflakes

[Tireman4]

Eyeballing Houston....and working HARD on fixing those fans!!!! We've had it all today and lots of it.....we will be EVER SO HAPPY, in the spirit of Christmas , to give it ALL to you folks (and the temps that come with it ).

rain
freezing rain
graupel
hail
big fat snowflakes

Bring it Screamer, bring it. Dadgum it. LOL.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose mentioned the neutral ENSO and negative PDO typically means a dry Texas.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

a whole lotta Scrooges and Miss Virginia's (Yes Virginia there most certainly is a Santa Claus) live in Texas.

Will still try my best for the one who believes (eh Tireman).

[vbhoutex]

Eyeballing Houston....and working HARD on fixing those fans!!!! We've had it all today and lots of it.....we will be EVER SO HAPPY, in the spirit of Christmas , to give it ALL to you folks (and the temps that come with it ).

rain
freezing rain
graupel
hail
big fat snowflakes

Bring it Screamer, bring it. Dadgum it. LOL.

I'm voting with Tireman on this one!! Do we need to send some mechanics screamer? Currently 77F and my Granddaughters are swimming at their other Grandparents house!!

[Terri]

So, I decide to vacate Central Texas for Turkey Day this year, traveling to my hometown of Port Arthur in search for what some (me) might describe as the best cooking in Texas. My search was not confined to just good cookin', but perhaps a glimpse of those little things that fall out of the sky called raindrops. After all, I grew up here and when fall is fully set in and winter is on the way, it was ALWAYS raining. One word describes what I found - DRY! Even here, where everything (including me) grew green algae and mold on it surface. The food was as expected; fantastic, but the weather - dry, dry, dry - save for a little fog. (Fog the culprit of a huge pile-up on IH10 yesterday - extremely devasting for many, many families.) My mom is even having troubles keeping her well going.

[Portastorm]

Sadly it appears that any major transport of cold Canadian (maybe a bit of Arctic air) into the southern Plains and Texas is now off the table for next week. The GFS, which has been highly variable, in its operational and ensemble runs has lost it and so has King Euro. The flow appears more zonal and transient. Polar vortex stays well north in Canada and the ridge on the West Coast isn't nearly as sharp as progged.

And yes, it would be great to see some rain wouldn't it?! Things are getting real dry again.

[Ntxw]

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!

It does appear that the unrelenting -PNA will win again, thus following the trend this fall of digging troughs along/off the east coast (think Sandy). At least the high latitude blocking should remain, so if/when the PNA ever decides to connect maybe we have a chance. If not well, dry dry dry.

[amawea]

Well, this past month or so has reminded me of the movie Groundhog day in regards to the weather. First the models say cold then they say mild. I get all wound up about a possible shot of cold and snow then get the air let out when reality comes along. It's looking like a dry winter right now, but who knows, maybe the PNA will go positive yet.

[gboudx]

Meanwhile, my bell peppers, poblanos and Roma tomatoes continue producing quite a harvest with more new flowers blooming. I didn't think I'd still be tending to this garden any longer, but it looks like it'll keep going into December. Good thing it grows decently with chlorinated city water.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Eyeballing Houston....and working HARD on fixing those fans!!!! We've had it all today and lots of it.....we will be EVER SO HAPPY, in the spirit of Christmas , to give it ALL to you folks (and the temps that come with it ).

rain
freezing rain
graupel
hail
big fat snowflakes

Bring it Screamer, bring it. Dadgum it. LOL.

I'm voting with Tireman on this one!! Do we need to send some mechanics screamer? Currently 77F and my Granddaughters are swimming at their other Grandparents house!!

re Portastorm's most recent posting. Would sure love to send it on. Send those mechanics up here (but bundle them well first..... popsicle Texans won't be a pretty sight)!!! Saw on CBC (our National broadcast station) that horrendous accident. We've had a few here with our change in weather but nothing like that.

Would love the temps that allow swimming outside (from our upstairs windows I can admire two neighbours swimming pools and my water lily pond that are now probably covered with 3 inches of ice..and growing).

[Rgv20]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
850 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2012

TXC215-427-240345-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FA.Y.0093.121124T0250Z-121124T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HIDALGO-STARR-
850 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
EASTERN STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 945 PM CST

* AT 850 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
INDICATED RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR FROM A
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ADVISED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RAPID RISING STREAMS OR ARROYOS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY UP TO 1
FOOT. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF NEARBY LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND.

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&


Glorious Rain!

[vbhoutex]

How much rain did you get yesterday? Looks like a great soaking, which is something we aren't seeing here in Houston. We are quickly heading back into moderate drought with no end in sight.