Texas Fall 2012

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Ntxw
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#301 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 11, 2012 9:40 pm

All very good points Horselatitudesfarm. But it's still too small a sample to say for certain a few years of it is truly "climate change." The early 2000s were very wet so were the 90s. And we have also experienced much worse dry periods such as the 30s and 50s. However the flip of the PDO is a more certain, proven conclusion as more La Ninas = drier. And most of the Texas cities have gone from lots of rain just before 07 and the sudden change with the PDO since.

Many of those scientist also said the extra ocean warmth would bring more El Nino's and as a result a wetter Texas. Well that hasn't been the case, as the ocean warmth has not been able to string any in the cold PDO. So as I'm trying to say it could be a combo of both, but the PDO is a clearer proven factor as compared to global warming.

Besides it's Texas :P Always feast or famine here wet, dry, cold, or hot. Rarely is it ever "average"! We live between two extreme weather geographical regions, the Chihuahuan/Sonoran deserts and the Gulf of Mexico so whichever wind pattern is dominant, well we can guess :P
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#302 Postby Portastorm » Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:59 am

First Freeze Warning of the season for south central Texas!


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
711 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY...

.A COOL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL SEASON IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO KENDALIA TO BASTROP TO GIDDINGS. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE FOR JUST A
FEW HOURS AND MAINLY OVER LOW LYING AREAS.

TXZ171>173-186-188>194-122200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FZ.W.0001.121113T0800Z-121113T1500Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
BASTROP-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
KERRVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...
AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS
711 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...EARLY MORNING LOWS OF 29 TO 32 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...A LIGHT FREEZE MAY DAMAGE OR KILL TENDER VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&
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#303 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:47 am

:uarrow:
I saw that! Thought I'd let you mention it first. :wink:

Does seem a little early to mention a freeze. I did see in the Austin/San Antonio office discussion that the only fly in the ointment would be mid/high-level clouds coming in from the tropical Pacific over Mexico, creating an "insulating" effect, keeping temperatures from plummeting too far -- maybe. (Wouldn't this tropical Pacific plume usually indicate an El Nino? Not anymore I guess.)

The dewpoints are very low. I saw the humidity was in the 50 and 60 percent range most of yesterday. Then in the mid-afternoon (about 4:00ish) with in an hour or so of the front moving through, it plummeted to 27% at Camp Mabry. :eek: VERY DRY air mass!

My irrigation system is set for once a week to keep the roots moist since we don't appear to be getting any rain, and the near/medium future doesn't look as promising in the moisture department, aside from a little advection/convection fog and a 20% chance here and there. :roll:

Anyway, at least this means my yard may stop growing for the rest of the year. No more trimming/mowing! Yea!! :P
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#304 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 12, 2012 1:42 pm

While there is yet a storm to be seen able to take advantage, there appears to be a vast moisture plume coming in from the Pacific resulting from the subtropical jet/Kelvin wave. Hopefully models will trend wetter later this week into next week with such feature.

Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-wv.html
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#305 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:29 pm

Bob Rose changed his tune today from last week. What else is new? :roll: For me it would be -- umm -- RAIN. That would be a NICE change! :rain:

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#306 Postby Portastorm » Tue Nov 13, 2012 4:16 pm

Interesting to note that we've "busted" colder on max temps two days in a row in Austin. Today, the high was forecasted to be in the low 60s and we are generally still in the mid 50s at mid afternoon. The straight grid numbers from the GFS yesterday appears to have verified. I guess the NWS forecasters saw cause to go higher than those numbers but it doesn't appear to have happened.
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#307 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Nov 13, 2012 4:34 pm

Only 58F here in Sugar Land. Cloud deck seems to be pretty thick.
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#308 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 13, 2012 5:46 pm

Yeah these mid to high level clouds were a result of the Pacific moisture and probably kept temps down a bit and may help keep temps above freezing in south Texas. Should be a pleasant week for any travel plans. Next week might be a different story for the east coast as well as midweek for Texas. May be wet but not certain yet. As of today's runs Thanksgiving day looks seasonable to mild and dry.
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#309 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Nov 13, 2012 8:15 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Only 58F here in Sugar Land. Cloud deck seems to be pretty thick.

We managed a steaming 59f in the Spring Branch area with a low of 42f this morning. Definitely a much thicker cloud deck than I expected.
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#310 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:17 pm

I was in Corinth tonight and around 7ish PM there was a very brief storm that rolled in. It was like very small hail pellets but almost like sleet as it was soft. It came down at a good clip. Very odd. We were in a room that had a metal roof and could hear it. I ran outside and it was coming down at a good clip. Not sure what to call it but it was the first frozen precip of the season. Anyone else experience this? I swear I am not crazy.
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#311 Postby iorange55 » Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:41 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:I was in Corinth tonight and around 7ish PM there was a very brief storm that rolled in. It was like very small hail pellets but almost like sleet as it was soft. It came down at a good clip. Very odd. We were in a room that had a metal roof and could hear it. I ran outside and it was coming down at a good clip. Not sure what to call it but it was the first frozen precip of the season. Anyone else experience this? I swear I am not crazy.


Looks like there was/is some light radar returns floating around in that area. Strange that it was some sort of frozen pellets....hm. I believe you, though.

Graupel, perhaps?
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#312 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:46 pm

iorange55 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I was in Corinth tonight and around 7ish PM there was a very brief storm that rolled in. It was like very small hail pellets but almost like sleet as it was soft. It came down at a good clip. Very odd. We were in a room that had a metal roof and could hear it. I ran outside and it was coming down at a good clip. Not sure what to call it but it was the first frozen precip of the season. Anyone else experience this? I swear I am not crazy.


Looks like there was/is some light radar returns floating around in that area. Strange that it was some sort of frozen pellets....hm. I believe you, though.

Graupel, perhaps?


Certainly possible with the 12z skew-t's out of FW. Very low dewpoints and dry air so anything that managed to fall could've been cold hail or graupel of some sorts.
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#313 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:
iorange55 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I was in Corinth tonight and around 7ish PM there was a very brief storm that rolled in. It was like very small hail pellets but almost like sleet as it was soft. It came down at a good clip. Very odd. We were in a room that had a metal roof and could hear it. I ran outside and it was coming down at a good clip. Not sure what to call it but it was the first frozen precip of the season. Anyone else experience this? I swear I am not crazy.


Looks like there was/is some light radar returns floating around in that area. Strange that it was some sort of frozen pellets....hm. I believe you, though.

Graupel, perhaps?


Certainly possible with the 12z skew-t's out of FW. Very low dewpoints and dry air so anything that managed to fall could've been cold hail or graupel of some sorts.


Graupel, that what I was trying to say. It was softer then hail. It was very fluffy. Very cool indeed. Well, sure hope that is not the extent of our "winter weather" for the rest of fall and winter. Hahaha.......... The posts of late have me worried. :-(
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#314 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:31 am

Ive seen Graupel fall while the temp was in the 50's in Sugar Land once when i was young. It was really weird. It was like a shower of it for about 3 minutes.
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#315 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:26 am

I saw some sprinkles in Mesquite around 8:45pm and was irritated that they weren't frozen, because it sure seemed like a perfect setup if it were just a few degrees colder! :x
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#316 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 14, 2012 3:08 pm

Man, we are getting ZERO help from the PNA, stubborn. Without it, it's constant dry SW or NW flow. At least the EPO has been somewhat favorable for chilly air every now and then and AO will head back negative but without the +PNA hard to find any belief in modelling for rain.

Image
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#317 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:05 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ive seen Graupel fall while the temp was in the 50's in Sugar Land once when i was young. It was really weird. It was like a shower of it for about 3 minutes.

I remember that happening here in Houston in the late 90s. I think the temp was 52f and that is when I learned what graupel was.
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#318 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:14 pm

I get these updates. Water wars are here for the long haul I have a gut feeling.

Of course, one flood in the right place can change things -- LITERALLY overnight.

We just need RAIN -- regular rains, period.

Hmmm :roll:

http://www.lcra.org/newsstory/2012/requ ... state.html
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Re: Re:

#319 Postby Agua » Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:53 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ive seen Graupel fall while the temp was in the 50's in Sugar Land once when i was young. It was really weird. It was like a shower of it for about 3 minutes.

I remember that happening here in Houston in the late 90s. I think the temp was 52f and that is when I learned what graupel was.


Oh my lord. That MAY be what I thought to be large clumps of snow back in March or April of around 88 or so. Temp was in the 50s and fluffy half dollar sized clumps of frozen precip fell for about 20 minutes. Covered the ground. I always thought it was a freaky, freaky snow event.
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#320 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:42 am

Doesn't anybody have any long range 384hr la la land model maps we can drool over? I mean something that shows an enormous frozen blob sitting over DFW. Don't me wrong, the recent weather has been just about perfect. Just about. Patience young grasshopper. It will come. :ggreen:
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