Texas Fall 2012

[Terri]

Fun tidbit for the day. Overall global snow cover is equaling 2009 for the month, 1976 is not that far ahead. More importantly, the prairies of Canada are covered unlike last year when they remained snow free pretty much the entire winter. This should allow more cold to build and less modification as they come down this year when the pattern allows it.

we need a larger smile icon - we don't have one. Therefore, I will use two.

[gpsnowman]

Ho-hum pattern we have here for the next several days. Mid 80's this week for North Texas. Yuck. I hope mid November comes in with a bang and keeps us cold. Ntwx mentioned mid month. That is an enternity for cold weather people! Bring it!!!

[Ntxw]

Ho-hum pattern we have here for the next several days. Mid 80's this week for North Texas. Yuck. I hope mid November comes in with a bang and keeps us cold. Ntwx mentioned mid month. That is an enternity for cold weather people! Bring it!!!

Yeah, unfortunately there will be several unseasonably mild days this week. But this time of year warm spells don't last long as a series of seasonable fronts will clear way this weekend and next week. Keep track of the EPO and Alaska, a powerful storm there currently will likely send a strong system into the lower 48 in a couple of weeks, starting to get interesting.

Happy Halloween! Should be a beautiful night tonight for the trick or treaters!

[Portastorm]

The 0z and 6z GFS runs along with the 0z Euro suggest a major-league cold shot coming down into the Southern Plains and Texas some 11-15 days out from now. I still like our chances of a mid-month cold outbreak. Stay tuned!

[ndale]

I heard a tidbit on a San Antonio radio station today about someone who watches El Nino saying that El Nino is disappearing and we may not have as wet a winter as first thought and by summer La Nina will be back and we will have a hot and dry summer. I know several on here watches El Nino forecasts also. Do you have thoughts on this.

[Ntxw]

I heard a tidbit on a San Antonio radio station today about someone who watches El Nino saying that El Nino is disappearing and we may not have as wet a winter as first thought and by summer La Nina will be back and we will have a hot and dry summer. I know several on here watches El Nino forecasts also. Do you have thoughts on this.

The El Nino went on hiatus early Oct. It's making a comeback right now but how long it persists is anyone's guess. If we get an official declaration of at least weak El Nino before spring, we'll likely see a very wet spring and summer like in 2004 and 2007, if not another hot summer is likely at hand as the cold PDO persists.

[ndale]

I heard a tidbit on a San Antonio radio station today about someone who watches El Nino saying that El Nino is disappearing and we may not have as wet a winter as first thought and by summer La Nina will be back and we will have a hot and dry summer. I know several on here watches El Nino forecasts also. Do you have thoughts on this.

The El Nino went on hiatus early Oct. It's making a comeback right now but how long it persists is anyone's guess. If we get an official declaration of at least weak El Nino before spring, we'll likely see a very wet spring and summer like in 2004 and 2007, if not another hot summer is likely at hand as the cold PDO persists.

Thanks for the explanation.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

at hr 216, Ryan Maue is showing a 1050 Arctic high over the North Pole

[Portastorm]

Interesting little snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO EWX:

JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND (NOV 10TH AND 11TH)...
THE MODELS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL BE OUR
NEXT RAIN MAKER. THERE IS CURRENT DISAGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

[Terri]

Interesting little snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO EWX:

JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND (NOV 10TH AND 11TH)...
THE MODELS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL BE OUR
NEXT RAIN MAKER. THERE IS CURRENT DISAGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

faster pplease.

Uh, yeah, it's hot...

[weatherdude1108]

I heard a tidbit on a San Antonio radio station today about someone who watches El Nino saying that El Nino is disappearing and we may not have as wet a winter as first thought and by summer La Nina will be back and we will have a hot and dry summer. I know several on here watches El Nino forecasts also. Do you have thoughts on this.

The El Nino went on hiatus early Oct. It's making a comeback right now but how long it persists is anyone's guess. If we get an official declaration of at least weak El Nino before spring, we'll likely see a very wet spring and summer like in 2004 and 2007, if not another hot summer is likely at hand as the cold PDO persists.

Thanks for the explanation.

I do not like cold PDOs.

C'mon weak El Nino!

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting little snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO EWX:

JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND (NOV 10TH AND 11TH)...
THE MODELS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL BE OUR
NEXT RAIN MAKER. THERE IS CURRENT DISAGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

faster pplease.

Uh, yeah, it's hot...

I echo that one!

[horselattitudesfarm]

Interesting little snippet from this afternoon's AFD out of NWSFO EWX:

JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND (NOV 10TH AND 11TH)...
THE MODELS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL BE OUR
NEXT RAIN MAKER. THERE IS CURRENT DISAGREEMENT ON THESE FEATURES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

Uh? Rain?........what is that?

[Ntxw]

What to look forward to the rest of this month and into November (when wintry precip becomes possible month!). NAO and AO have both tanked. PNA is positive right now but is forecasted to head back negative. The EPO will return to very negative but not this week as we are still in zonal flow. So 2/3 signals point to colder air sliding down. I think the -PNA is likely due to split flow and cutoff lows hanging around the Pacific NW/W so it's not a strong influence (just my opinion it may be completely wrong).

1976 and 2009 are the two best fit analogs for the beginning of Oct.

This was a decent forecast, but I underestimated the power of the warmth mid-month. Oct 2012 did not match 2009 or 1976 when looking at relative to average and remained slightly below. However, the cold shots were intense enough to rival that of the cold shots in those two years, just that the warmth managed to cut into it. The month also remained quite dry (likely from the weakening of El Nino late Sept/early Oct).

For first half of November, it's going to start out mild (obviously-yuck) but the changes are already happening. Right now I think there will be two big storms to look at based on analogs and teleconnections one mid month 10th-20th, and one near Thanksgivings or just a little after. The PNA has been mostly negative so I see little reason to stray from that idea. What this means is look for a full-latitude type trough with said systems and anomalously cold air. EPO will likely remain negative as well.

In the past years we have seen Novembers trend warm so it's unwise to rule out these spells between systems. However this November has the potential to allow early barrages of wintry weather. When looking at weak warm enso states, they like to throw a wrench at us. Early and late season wintry precipitation seems to occur more often when this is the case and this year could be one of those. As for precipitation, it's getting harder to predict so I will stick with near normal or slightly below normal to compliment October.

[gboudx]

Uh? Rain?........what is that?

I've almost forgotten what getting regular rainfall is like.

[Terri]

Uh? Rain?........what is that?

I've almost forgotten what getting regular rainfall is like.

Yes, me too. I do not like having to water, but my trees and fruit trees need something soon. Looks like i need to start irrigation if something doesn't happen soon.

[somethingfunny]

I love Dennis Cavanaugh. So much.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...AND MVFR CIGS AT KACT.

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH HE METROPLEX AIRPORT AT
THIS HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN
MOVE THROUGH KACT LATE TONIGHT 9-10Z. SCATTERED SHRA HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM KT35/KHBN SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. AIR MASS
WILL BE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND COULD AFFECT KACT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND IF THEY DEVELOP...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD. SOME ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...AND HAVE VCSH TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH 19-03Z.

EXPECT CIGS TO FORM AROUND 5000 THIS EVENING ACROSS THE METROPLEX
AND LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. KACT WILL HAVE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING 12-15Z AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER
THE EVENT SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE METROPLEX WITH NORTH WINDS 5-9KTS.
75

&&

.UPDATE...
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FROM THE FORT HOOD AREA TO
SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY EASTWARD. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3
MILE VISIBILITIES WITH SOME 1/2 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES NOTED
FROM KILLEEN TO CORSICANA TO ATHENS AREA EASTWARD INTO EAST
TEXAS. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AS OF 1530Z...AND ALMOST ALL OF
THE FOG SHOULD BE DISPERSED BY 17Z. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN HAD EARLIER
EXPECTED. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A BONHAM...TO
DECATUR...TO ABILENE LINE AS OF 15Z. WITH 1.5 TO 3 MB 3-HOUR
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DFW
17-18Z BUT SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE PICKING UP SOME SPEED THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS FOR CURRENT TIMING. 58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012/

EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADARS DEPICTED A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED NO CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AS OF 06Z WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 00Z FWD
RAOB OBSERVED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF UNDER ONE HALF INCH. HOWEVER
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DID INDICATE THAT AT LEAST
SHALLOW MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH INTO NORTH TX
WITH LOWER 60S DEW POINTS OBSERVED AS FAR NORTH AS WACO AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN BUT CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES THAT THE NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
SPREADING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
MUCH OF NORTH TX OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO WORK NORTH THIS MORNING...THINK THAT WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL AID IN DEEPENING THE MOIST LAYER SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT...THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
INITIATION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
AROUND 21Z THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THAT TIME THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW
AIRPORT TO PARIS...SO WENT AHEAD AND MOVED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
30 POPS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING BEFORE 21Z WHEN THE
FRONT IS FURTHER NORTHWEST...OR WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT IN THE
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED 20 POPS FOR
THESE AREAS AWAY FROM THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL
CONTINUED TO PLACE BEST POPS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TX TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS...AT THIS TIME ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TX TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERALL LACK OF OBSERVED DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING
COMBINED WITH FORECAST MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SEEM TO FAVOR AN UNORGANIZED SINGLE CELL STORM MODE.
SINGLE CELL STORMS CAN STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SO THAT IS THE GENERAL
EXPECTATION OF THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ACROSS NORTH TX THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

/THIS BLOCK OF DISCUSSION WILL DESCRIBE THE VERY TINY CHANCES FOR
LANDSPOUT TORNADOES TODAY NEAR THE FRONT AT 21Z. TO RETURN TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...PLEASE SKIP BELOW A FEW
PARAGRAPHS./

WHILE THE CHANCES ARE VERY SMALL (LESS THAN 1 PERCENT)...IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LANDSPOUT TORNADOES
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. THE KEY
INGREDIENTS FOR LANDSPOUT TORNADOES IN GENERAL ARE A GOOD SOURCE
OF VERTICAL VORTICITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY
SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT INDEPENDENT OF ONE ANOTHER...THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF IS THE BIG SOURCE OF VERTICAL VORTICITY...SO THE PRIMARY
FACTOR TO LOOK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH NORTH TX.

THE 03/00Z NAM INDICATES THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO IN THESE REGARDS
BECAUSE THE NAM ESSENTIALLY STALLS THE FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CWA AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING THE FRONT MORE QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. IF THE FRONT DOES STOP...OR SLOWS DOWN
TO A VERY SLOW SPEED...IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ISOLATED
CELLS THAT TRY TO DEVELOP RIGHT ON TOP OF THE BOUNDARY. IF AN
UPDRAFT BEGINS VERY NEAR THE BOUNDARY IT CAN STRETCH VERTICAL
VORTICITY CAUSING A RAPID INCREASE IN ROTATIONAL VELOCITY WHILE
REMAINING ATTACHED TO THE CLOUD BASE OF THE DEVELOPING STORM. IF
THIS HAPPENS IT WOULD RESULT IN A LANDSPOUT TORNADO. IF THE STORM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY OR IF THE BOUNDARY KEEPS
MOVING...THIS PROCESS IS INTERRUPTED RESULTING IN A BENIGN RAIN
SHOWER OR VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...IF CLOUDS HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE DAMPENED
ONCE AGAIN INTERRUPTING THE LANDSPOUT CREATION PROCESS.

AT THIS TIME...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL
KEEP MOVING SOUTHEAST FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY LANDSPOUT
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER EVEN IF THE FRONT STALLS...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
A LANDSPOUT IS EXTREMELY LIMITED BECAUSE EVEN THE NAM FORECASTS
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY FOR ONLY A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT PROBABILITIES FOR LANDSPOUTS
REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANYTHING BUT THE AFD HERE. IT IS
MENTIONED HERE FOR GENERAL INTEREST AND JUST AS A HEADS UP FOR
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PEOPLE LIKELY TO BE OUTDOORS ENJOYING THE WEEKEND.

/END OF LANDSPOUT DISCUSSION/

FOR SUNDAY...KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF WACO AS THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NORTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION
SUNDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND
OWING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
PLACE...MOST PRECIPITATION MAY END UP BEING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH HIGHS HOLDING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE THAT A POWERFUL
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS EXPECTED TO SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THIS WEEKENDS FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA. AFTER THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. IF THIS SYSTEM IMPACTS NORTH TX IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
AFTER SUNDAY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE. REGARDLESS...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME THIS SYSTEM IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOVING
FORWARD BECAUSE THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO KNOW IF IT WILL
IMPACT NORTH TX OR NOT THIS FAR OUT. CAVANAUGH

[horselattitudesfarm]

Storms tonight a total bust north of I-20 (where I live). I don't care who gets rain now....I just want some over my house! . Another drier than normal month: October came up over 2" short in our area. Seems like ever since I got married in 1995 the weather has hit the _hitter in the rain department....a few good stretches of rainy weather, but mostly loooong dry stretches.

[vbhoutex]

We had one good downpour/thunderstorm here in W Houston this afternoon. Probably about 0.25" or so. We only had 1 inch in October. Glad I don't have fruit trees and such to worry about, but if we don't get some more rains I am going to have to consider watering too even though everything is heading into hibernation flora wise.

[Terri]

We had one good downpour/thunderstorm here in W Houston this afternoon. Probably about 0.25" or so. We only had 1 inch in October. Glad I don't have fruit trees and such to worry about, but if we don't get some more rains I am going to have to consider watering too even though everything is heading into hibernation flora wise.

Have to get those roots good, strong and steady to head into the winter on the fruit trees this time of year. I was very hopeful on the initial rainfall outlook with El Nino. But, alas, reality is raising its dry, ugly head.