SANDY - Probs/Obs/Reports - Mid-Atlantic/Northeast/E Canada

[CrazyC83]

I fear everywhere that some underestimating is going on. We shouldn't over-react but we need to be clear and on the point about the risk.

[cycloneye]

This is in Carolina Beach NC.

[cycloneye]

The latest statement by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

WOCN31 CWHX 271334 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT CORRECTED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 10:34 AM ADT SATURDAY 27 OCTOBER 2012
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NOVA SCOTIA
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
NEW BRUNSWICK
SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

FOR HURRICANE SANDY.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

BASED ON RECENT RECONNAISSANCE INFORMATION SANDY HAS REGAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH. SANDY WILL BE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. A WIDE RANGE OF IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CANADA.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 28.8NORTH 76.8WEST ABOUT 350 KILOMETRES NORTHEAST OF
FREEPORT BAHAMAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/H.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH 17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 MB

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY HAVE
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT REMAIN WELL IN EXCESS OF 100
KM/H. DURING THE WEEKEND SANDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD WHILE REMAINING AT HURRICANE STRENGTH. SANDY
WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ON MONDAY SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SANDY WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
INLAND ON THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST LATE MONDAY AS A VERY LARGE
AND POWERFUL STORM. THERE ARE VARIOUS FACTORS INFLUENCING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM. AS A RESULT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE IMPACTS OF THE STORM.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN QUEBEC ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS BY TUESDAY EVENING POSSIBLY REACHING THE
50 TO 100 MILLIMETRE RANGE WHICH WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR POST-TROPICAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE
MARITIMES. THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX WITH OR TURN INTO SNOW OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO AND EXTREME WESTERN QUEBEC AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM.
MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE SUBJECT TO STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 100 KM/H POSSIBLE. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN QUEBEC. GUSTY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE
MARITIMES. PEOPLE LIVING IN THESE AREAS ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO MESSAGES FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE AND LOCAL
WEATHER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE FUTURE WARNINGS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO CANADIAN WATERS WELL IN
ADVANCE OF SANDY REACHING THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE LATER ON
MONDAY. GALES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES, THE ST
LAWRENCE SEAWAY AND WESTERN MARITIMES MARINE WATERS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/HATT/ROBICHAUD/COUTURIER

[CrazyC83]

One big mistake IMO: the offices in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast are NOT issuing (at least now) normal Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings. I fear that a "High Wind Warning" will not get the attention necessary.

[KBBOCA]

Agree with you Crazy. I am very surprised that there are no hurricane warnings up the East Coast.

Here's a good beach cam link for Cape Hatteras. Surf's up!
http://www.surfchex.com/hatteras-web-cam.php

On the comments thread of another blog, I saw links to a wave model which were predicting insane wave heights (27 feet!) for parts of New England. Sorry, can't seem to find the link to that...

[CrazyC83]

For me it looks like about 16-20 hours of tropical storm winds (at least in frequent gusts) from Monday afternoon until the direction shift on Tuesday, when it shifts to the south and the wind is usually much weaker in that direction and I doubt 60 kt winds just above will get to the surface much. There appears to be about a 6 to 8 hour period overnight Monday into Tuesday where I could get very strong winds - perhaps gusts to 80 mph as an east wind with 85 kt winds at 925 (a bit down from earlier runs) should mix down much easier due to topography.

[cycloneye]

Latest statement by Enviromental Canada.

WOCN11 CWTO 271531
Special weather statement
Updated by Environment Canada
At 11:31 AM EDT Saturday 27 October 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Wet, windy and wild weather likely beginning late Monday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==

The remnants of hurricane Sandy will probably arrive late Monday as a
large and powerful post tropical fall storm over Southern Ontario.
It will likely track from the Atlantic ocean across the mid Atlantic
states then take an unusual path towards the Lower Great Lakes.

If the storm curves towards the Eastern Seaboard, which a consensus
of numerous computer weather models suggests, there is little doubt
the Northeastern United States will take the brunt of the storm.
But there is also the potential for significant impacts in Southern
and Eastern Ontario too. Significant rainfall appears likely late
Monday into Tuesday. Strong and gusty winds will also accompany this
storm if it takes this path. The storm will likely weaken later
Tuesday and on Halloween, but it will remain cool, damp and may
Still be somewhat windy for the trick or treaters.

A narrow band of wet snow is possible over the Haliburton Highlands
and the higher ground southwest of Georgian Bay. It may be the first
measurable snowfall of the season if temperatures flirt with the
freezing mark, but it doesn'T appear to be significant at this time.

A complicating factor is the presence of a stalled front now over
Southern Ontario. Post-tropical storms interacting with fronts can
produce significant rainfall. Persistent rain is forecast near this
front for the two or three days leading up to the arrival of Sandy.
It may amount to 20 to 30 mm or more over this period, especially
across Niagara, southcentral Ontario and north to Georgian Bay.
An additional 30 to 50 mm is possible with Sandy with excessive
amounts of 50 to 100 mm not out of the question. The forecast track
would also produce widespread 50 to 70 km/h strong winds likely
across Southern Ontario beginning later Monday. Occasional severe
gusts to 100 km/h are also likely, as well as storm force winds on
the Great Lakes. The combination of sodden ground, strong winds and
some residual leaves on trees will likely lead to areas of power
outages due to fallen limbs and some downed trees on snapped wires.

It is important to put this storm in perspective. The main reason it
is getting considerable press is the forecast intensity by various
weather models, as well as the heavily-populated Northeastern United
States that would feel its greatest impact. Most weather models are
forecasting the storm achieving an unprecedented low central pressure
as it comes ashore late Monday. Generally speaking, the lower the
pressure: the more intense the winds and rain around the storm.
It's possible the models are overdoing the storm strength. But even
if that is true, it may still be a significant and memorable
Fall storm to reckon with.

More information can be found in the WOCN31 CWHX tropical cyclone
information statement updated by the Canadian Hurricane Centre of
Environment Canada.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

END/ASHTON/KUHN/OSPC

[KBBOCA]

This briefing from the Mount Holly, NJ bureau of the NWS (8 a.m. Sat) is EXCELLENT.

Very clear, succinct and conveys serious threat without hype.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/pa ... iefing.pdf

Kudos to them. They are in the bullseye currently, along with the NY Metro area. May they find ways to get the info to all who need it.

[anarchiver19]

The first rain bands have started here in Virginia Beach and the winds are picking up-mostly just gusts. I just got back from the beach and the surf is really starting to kick up. I took some pictures but not sure how to post them from my phone...if I do I will post them. Stay safe all!

[Tstormwatcher]

Reporting from just southeast of New Bern. It has been raining since about 10am and so far we have had only .21 inches. Winds are out of the northeast at 10 to 15 with gust up to maybe 25. Barometer is down to 29.64 and is falling.

[KBBOCA]

Here are the current "action" and "alert" areas shown in a recent graphic from the Weather Channel. Looks pretty accurate based on all I've been reading.



Disclaimer: I'm an AMATEUR! Pay attention to official forecasts and warnings, not me.

[KBBOCA]

NOAA's storm surge maps from the Meterorolgical Development Laboratory:

Southeast: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ind ... &region=se

Mid-Atlantic: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ind ... &region=me

Northeast: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ind ... &region=ne

[cycloneye]

Here are a bunch of web cams from New York City. If any member knows of cams in other places along the Mid Atlantic and NE post them here.

http://www.easy2surf.com/cams/nylvcam.htm

Time Square only cams.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/

[KBBOCA]

new york city coastal flooding evacuation zones. It looks like Mayor Bloomberg is warning all those in orange that evacuation may be needed.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/p ... nglish.pdf

[KBBOCA]

Good for Connecticut. they've set up a special website to easily get emergency & preparedness info for Sandy

http://www.ct.gov/sandy

[CrazyC83]

Here are the current "action" and "alert" areas shown in a recent graphic from the Weather Channel. Looks pretty accurate based on all I've been reading.



Disclaimer: I'm an AMATEUR! Pay attention to official forecasts and warnings, not me.

I'm just outside the "Action" area, although with local wind enhancement, you could argue I should be in it.

[anarchiver19]

Here is a link to a webcam near the southern end of the Virginia Beach boardwalk:

http://www.vbbound.com/webcam/watermans-boardwalk-cam/

The wind is really starting to gust-maybe 25/30 mph, but not much rain so far.

[brunota2003]

Portions of NC in the above map should be in the ACTION zone, but aren't?

Spotter reports state surge is 3 feet above normal on Clubfoot Creek and 2 feet on Back Creek, off of Adams Creek, in Craven and Carteret County already. These are off of the Neuse River, which on the map, is the bottom river on the coast that looks like a smiley face...which is in the "alert" area.

[brunota2003]

Under a High Wind Watch now, up here at Drum:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
409 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-280415-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0003.121029T1600Z-121030T2100Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
409 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

* TIMING...MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH.
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE
AND POSSIBLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THESE SPEEDS AND FROM THIS DIRECTION COMBINED
WITH A SATURATED GROUND FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING A RISK OF
DOWNED TREES WHICH CAN BLOCK ROADWAYS AND TAKE OUT POWERLINES.
TREE ROOT SYSTEMS ACROSS OUR REGION ARE BUILT FOR A PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WIND. WITH THIS IN MIND...NORTHERLY WINDS CAN PRODUCE
MORE TREE DAMAGE THAN SIMILAR WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
235 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SANDY AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE TOO MUCH FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SANDY AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NE. A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT PCPN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND
VORT MAX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AND BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 00Z MON...BEGINNING
TO INTERACT WITH SANDY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A REX BLOCK
SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE BLOCKING OF THE TROUGH AND APPROACHING
SANDY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AS SANDY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUND
THE TROUGH...KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS PCPN FROM SANDY MOVES NORTH
AS WELL LATER SUNDAY.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
EASTERLY FLOW...ESP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THIS TREND WILL
THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. CONTINUED TO
USE A BLEND OF NAM/MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SANDY. GENERAL OPERATION
MODELS ARE LINING UP BETTER WITH TIMING...BRINGING THE STORM IN
AROUND 00Z TUES...THOUGH WITH DISCREPANCIES OF ACTUAL LOCATION
BEING FROM DELMARVA UP TO LI. LATEST NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
TREND BRINGING THE STORM IN AROUND THE DELMARVA REGION...SO KEPT
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THIS THINKING.
THE STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A TRANSITION INTO POST
TROPICAL PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IT HAS TO BE EMPHASIZED...THAT
ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL
BEFORE LANDFALL...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS STORM FOR THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC.

BASED ON ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE REGION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT
URBAN...SMALL STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING...HIGH WINDS CAUSING
WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...AND SIGNIFICANT
SHORELINE IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

THE WINDOW FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SANDY AND INTERACTION WITH
INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTIONS FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. AS FOR
WINDS...THEY INCREASE FROM THE E/NE ON SUNDAY BETWEEN SANDY AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 30S ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST
APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF SANDY...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUE...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS OF 40-50G70-80MPH...SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
ELEVATED LOCATIONS. IF THESE WINDS ARE REALIZED...THE COMBINATION
OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO FULL
FOLIAGE TREES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER
LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL AREA...CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS AS UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND
DEGREE OF IMPACT DUE TO THE STILL WIDE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE
LANDFALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS.