ATL: SANDY - Models

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stephen23
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#441 Postby stephen23 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:22 pm

Oh wow. Look at the 120hr Euro!
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#442 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:22 pm

Are models picking up on ridging or is the influence of an upper-level low that is sitting over the Western tip of Cuba....with SE to NW upper-level flow North of Cuba and over the Bahamas?

It's clearly seen spinning in this loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
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#443 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:24 pm

12Z ECMWF 120hr shows a powerful, 934-mb extratropical low making landfall on southern Maryland, just northeast of Virginia Beach, VA:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif
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Re:

#444 Postby adam0983 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:26 pm

Based on the recent Euro and GFS run does anyone see any big track changes at the 5pm advisory?
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Re:

#445 Postby stephen23 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:27 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:12Z ECMWF 120hr shows a powerful, 934-mb extratropical low making landfall on southern Maryland, just northeast of Virginia Beach, VA:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif



Also showing 100kt 850mb winds on coast correct?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#446 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:27 pm

Regardless how close it gets to FL just the pressure gradient between Sandy and the big high pressure will mean very windy and rough water conditions for eastern FL, beach erosion will be a big problem, IMO.
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#447 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:29 pm

Well this would be something else ... DC area?

Image
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#448 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:30 pm

Does it hit the Carolina coast first?
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Re:

#449 Postby adam0983 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:30 pm

Wow could be a repeat of Hurricane Irene last year.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#450 Postby crimi481 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:31 pm

Models do not factor in how Sandy may "skip"around, when first hits S. Cuba coast (x factor)
Could get interesting for Keys/ S. Fl
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#451 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:33 pm

144 hours:

Image
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Re: Re:

#452 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:35 pm

adam0983 wrote:Based on the recent Euro and GFS run does anyone see any big track changes at the 5pm advisory?


Possible..maybe a slight shift to the left.

Hopefully these adjustments stop though. :(
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Re:

#453 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:40 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Does it hit the Carolina coast first?


No.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#454 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:49 pm

Looks like another westward shift maybe forthcoming..

Image
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#455 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:14 pm

12Z GFS showing the transition to extra-trop just north of the Bahamas around 28N

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase1.png
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#456 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:32 pm

Image
12Z Euro showing possible hurricane gusts near east/central Florida coast.
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#457 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:37 pm

12Z FIM model bends NW:

Image
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#458 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:44 pm

It's interesting to note that the more intense part of the storm is being predicted to be on the west side of the storm. Do we have any verificiation on how models do with predicting the intensity of different parts of storms?
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#459 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:44 pm

Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.
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Re:

#460 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:46 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.



Can you post? :D
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