ATL: SANDY - Models

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#361 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:57 am

84 Hrs...Looking like Epic run here...

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#362 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:58 am

That kind of track would confirm what I posted from last night's Marine Weather Discussion. Significant coastal flooding, waves in coastal zones of 35 feet (or larger), a potentially historic event for the Bahamas and Florida.
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#363 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:59 am

What a way for the ECMWF to mend its reputation! :eek: The GFS solution presupposes a warm-seclusion event much like the 1991 Perfect Storm--off the Carolinas instead of New England (i.e., farther south initially).
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#364 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:59 am

90 Hrs

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#365 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:00 am

gfs loop nearly identical to the euro through 72 hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#366 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:00 am

96 Hrs

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#367 Postby Steve H. » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:01 am

GC, just got out of a meeting - is this further east than the 0Z run?
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Re:

#368 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:01 am

brunota2003 wrote:That kind of track would confirm what I posted from last night's Marine Weather Discussion. Significant coastal flooding, waves in coastal zones of 35 feet (or larger), a potentially historic event for the Bahamas and Florida.


yeah it would even be an issues here in central florida where we dont see much coast flooding from hurricanes / systems becasue the water off sure is soo deep. but at 35+ feet that will have no problems.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#369 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:02 am

102 hr...Looks like the Left hook is coming this time..

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#370 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:02 am

Steve H. wrote:GC, just got out of a meeting - is this further east than the 0Z run?


No it's further WEST. More in line with the other models showing a Direct Hit on the East Coast.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#371 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:02 am

Steve H. wrote:GC, just got out of a meeting - is this further east than the 0Z run?


no west very close to euro wobble nw to wnw as it leaves the bahamas gets quite close to central fl.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#372 Postby ROCK » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:04 am

Man, I am going to have to take some of this Mayan calendar stuff seriously if these runs verify.... :eek:
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#373 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:05 am

Looks like it will still move out to sea or go east of the US thru 102 hours...haven't seen much of a hook. It is further west, though...starting to catch up to the other models.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#374 Postby Steve H. » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:05 am

Ok, thanks! I think.......
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#375 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:07 am

120 Hrs...957 O-o

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#376 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:09 am

nogaps almost identical to previous run and euro again. so far

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re:

#377 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:12 am

Aric Dunn wrote:nogaps almost identical to previous run and euro again. so far

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


Through 36 hours it's actually a little east of the 06z run.

EDIT: Still landfalls on Florida though at 48 hours.
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#378 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:12 am

Image

My Unofficial/Amateur Observations of the 12z GFS as Sandy passes by Florida:
Sandy moves NNW from hours 48-60.
Strongest winds along east/central Florida of any GFS run so far.
Sandy's closer to Florida on this run compared to any GFS run over past few days.
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#379 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:13 am

GFS looks like it will go safely out to sea with minimal coastal impact...
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Re: Re:

#380 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:13 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:nogaps almost identical to previous run and euro again. so far

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


Through 36 hours it's actually a little east of the 06z run.

EDIT: Still landfalls on Florida though at 48 hours.


yeah looks like about 30 to 50 miles. not to big of a change
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