ATL: SANDY - Models

[CrazyC83]

The most intense forecasts give me winds near the 850 level of about 80 kt. What would that mean for actual winds at the surface? I live somewhere that a funneling effect can take place.

[ROCK]

All but three ensemble members showing east coast as well. Earlier today it was 12 east coast, 8 out to sea

when it doubt long range follow the EURO... its a good bet...JMO

[Hurricaneman]

It seems the last few runs of the GFS the operational run has been an eastern outlier compared to its ensemble means and individual ensemble runs

[stephen23]

What time does the 00z Euro come out? 1am or 2am central time

[Evil Jeremy]

What time does the 00z Euro come out? 1am or 2am central time

3am central time I believe.

[stephen23]

Euro is rolling now

[somethingfunny]

For reference, here's last night's 00z at the same timeframe:

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the Euro is headed for the NEUS and still has rediculously low pressure which Im sure isn't going to verify, as odd as this may sound the NOGAPS may win in the end it has basically the same track as the Euro and a more reasonable pressure

[stephen23]

Looks like the Euro is headed for the NEUS and still has rediculously low pressure which Im sure isn't going to verify, as odd as this may sound the NOGAPS may win in the end it has basically the same track as the Euro and a more reasonable pressure

Yes. Euro goes in right at NYC this time. Only difference is a almost due west landfall then heading to Pa. I saw 933 mb and 86kt winds.

[stephen23]

Wow if the intensity on that model was to verify it would be crazy. Showing 70kt wind from North Carolina to main and as far west as 80w. From what I also saw in that run is mid to high tropical storm force winds up entire east coast all the way starting at florida on its way north?

[fci]

What am I missing?
I see models, or at least the interpretations of the models; showing a threat to the Northeast Coast. But the NHC has the storm curving NE.
So are they totally discounting the bend back?
I mean, I know it is a bend back but to threaten the East Coast we are talking about a radical turn from where the NHC has the storm in 5 days.
I know I must be missing something here.

[xironman]

The Euro pressures are not that unreasonable when you look at how much it has been baroclinically enhance and is transitioning to a powerful northeaster being pushed back in by the block to the northeast, typical for a northeaster. Per Euro as she passes the Delmarva there is a half a foot of snow on DC's doorstep.

[weatherwindow]

The most intense forecasts give me winds near the 850 level of about 80 kt. What would that mean for actual winds at the surface? I live somewhere that a funneling effect can take place.

Reduction from 850mb(roughly 1500ft), assuming a steady state storm, is .8 = 64kts(If in a weakening system, reduction would be .75. If strengthening, .9). However, ground friction unless you have an open ocean exposure, would further reduce the wind speed but on the other hand funnelling may increase it...Cheers, Rich

[somethingfunny]

What am I missing?
I see models, or at least the interpretations of the models; showing a threat to the Northeast Coast. But the NHC has the storm curving NE.
So are they totally discounting the bend back?
I mean, I know it is a bend back but to threaten the East Coast we are talking about a radical turn from where the NHC has the storm in 5 days.
I know I must be missing something here.

All of the models have it staying well offshore of North Carolina. The Euro/CMC/Nogaps track is along the western side of the NHC cone at the end of the forecast period, but the NHC isn't discounting them at all. From the west side of this cone, it bends due north in the phasing scenarios.

[GCANE]

A good number of the latest GFS ensemble members are showing a recurve into New England

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif

[wjs3]

So far the 6Z GFS (48 hours) has a path just a smidge to the west of the NHC 5 AM. Rounding error, really--Between Andros and the Exumas instead of over Exuma, west of Eleuthera instead of over it. Nothing major so far.

[Blown Away]

Only gonna take a few more smidges to reach SFL!

[GCANE]

ECMWF after landfall, 850-mb temps quite low as air ingested into circulation.

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2609 ... 40/photo/1

[angelwing]

I am so thankful I don't work an hour from the NJ shore anymore

[Cyclenall]

My interest in Sandy is now rapidly skyrocketing after viewing yesterday and this morning's model runs. This is beyond nuts, 933 mb from the Euro into New England?!? Lets pretend for a moment that actually happens, what would actually take place in such a scenario? My guess is it would be the most destructive natural disaster since the March 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami. Historic, Storm of the Century, Mother of all October windstorms, Octobomb, Weather Bomb, Storm O' Doom, HalloDoomsday Storm/Bomb, and The Great Halloween Pumpkin ( ) are all names that could be assigned to the solution. This very well could be what jolts me out of my weather slumber because the last few months weather-wise have been boring, this could be a nice wake-up.

What has been puzzling is why people are still talking about the future of Sandy as if it will continue to be tropical in nature if it reaches the EC? Folks, this is not going to be tropical by the time it gets there!! Seriously, that's funny. I don't see much discussion like that here but mulling around other areas I found this to be the case.