ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good Evening everyone,

I don't post that often but do have a question. Once Sandy gets north of Key Largo and the winds come in from the north west. Should I be concerned about rising water up in to the canal from the bay and black water sound?

Absolutely. You will have to wait for the advisories, watches and warnings to come in but pay close attention to what the local weather office and officials tell you. If you don't usually read the local AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) they are great for getting an early heads up. Your local one would be here: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 80.449&e=1

Just scroll to near the bottom where it says ADDITIONAL FORECASTS and INFORMATION and click on the Forecast Discussion. You can see what your local weather experts are thinking about coming effects, often before they actually issue warnings. Good luck!

Thanks ozone

[WYNweather]

Coastal Broward County
Tropical Weather Statement in effect

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MIGHT BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE  AREA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY

WINDS

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY  NOT IN EFFECT. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO REMAIN  CLOSE TO BUT BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. AT THIS TIME

REMAIN  CALM AND STAY INFORMED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST

A  TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR  WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

[floridasun78]

here hurr statement for dade and key west http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 0statement

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SANDY IS STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 77.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[chaser1]

Good Evening everyone,

I don't post that often but do have a question. Once Sandy gets north of Key Largo and the winds come in from the north west. Should I be concerned about rising water up in to the canal from the bay and black water sound?

Hey there, how's it going?! I saw your post/question regarding Black Water Sound. My father in law has a trailer in Key Largo Villiage there so fairly familier with the area. Assuming that all goes to plan, than you should be ok. That said, I do believe that you will see a tidal rise at some point, especially when Sandy might make its closest pass to our East. Fortunately, (and assuming that the storm passes at least 100 miles or more to our east), you're not dealing with the astronomical tides from last week AND the increased pile up of water caused by the Northwest winds. I think you should be fine, barring that 2 events do not occur - 1) assuming that Sandy does not significantly deepen and come off the Cuban coast and quickly intensify perhaps to a Cat. 2 hurricane........ and 2) assuming that Sandy does not park herself right off our S.E. coastline and decide that she likes the Cafe con Leche and hang for 24-36 hr.s. That could prove problematic.

All in all, I'd say your probably fine but I do still think there is a real risk of a temporary stall either prior too, or right after departing the Cuban coast. I see a real risk of a 24 hour or so "bend-back" where Sandy could slide NW slowly, before resuming her North/NNE motion. Bottom line, get the boat on davits or bring it mainland on Thurs. early in the event that things look that close. If Sandy is moving at a good clip to the North (or NNE) coming off the Cuban coast, and appears to be well east of Andros island, I think you'll be fine.
Good luck!

[brunota2003]

The Marine Weather Discussion paints a very, very bad picture for Florida's east coast (and other areas).

VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO IS DEVELOPING WITH SANDY AS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW MOVEMENT...PRE EXISTING HIGH SEAS...VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND ONSHORE FLOW DURING HIGH LUNAR TIDES COULD SPELL EXTREME COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION FOR FLORIDA AND CERTAINLY BAHAMAS WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WW3 FORECASTING 12 FT SEAS TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY 18Z THU WITH SEAS BUILDING 20-35 FT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z FRI. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A HISTORICAL EVENT AND FO'S ARE ENCOURAGED TO ADVERTISE THIS EVENT VERY HARD. NELY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FLORIDA AND SE COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGER PERIOD SWELL INDUCING SUSTAINED RUNUP.

[JamesCaneTracker]

lol inspite of the fact that the GFS seems to be coming on board with a northEast impact the NHC seems to be refusing to bite on this happening... Or would it be after 5 days that it would bend back to the west and impact us?

[AdamFirst]

lol inspite of the fact that the GFS seems to be coming on board with a northEast impact the NHC seems to be refusing to bite on this happening... Or would it be after 5 days that it would bend back to the west and impact us?

Any potential northeast impact is beyond the current 5 day forecast for the NHC. And after the system goes into post-tropical transition the NHC would hand it off to the NWS.

[AdamFirst]

The Marine Weather Discussion paints a very, very bad picture for Florida's east coast (and other areas).

VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO IS DEVELOPING WITH SANDY AS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW MOVEMENT...PRE EXISTING HIGH SEAS...VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND ONSHORE FLOW DURING HIGH LUNAR TIDES COULD SPELL EXTREME COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION FOR FLORIDA AND CERTAINLY BAHAMAS WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WW3 FORECASTING 12 FT SEAS TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY 18Z THU WITH SEAS BUILDING 20-35 FT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z FRI. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A HISTORICAL EVENT AND FO'S ARE ENCOURAGED TO ADVERTISE THIS EVENT VERY HARD. NELY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FLORIDA AND SE COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGER PERIOD SWELL INDUCING SUSTAINED RUNUP.

That's a bit hair-raising to read.

A little snippet from the end of the 11 PM discussion:

THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

[JamesCaneTracker]

lol inspite of the fact that the GFS seems to be coming on board with a northEast impact the NHC seems to be refusing to bite on this happening... Or would it be after 5 days that it would bend back to the west and impact us?

Any potential northeast impact is beyond the current 5 day forecast for the NHC. And after the system goes into post-tropical transition the NHC would hand it off to the NWS.

Yes I've been reading alot of people saying it would be Post-Tropical but then Bryan Norcross was making it sound like it could still be a Hurricane here in the Northeast...

[SouthDadeFish]

Borderline cyan ring of doom on 37 GHz color:



For those that don't know, if that cyan ring around the center gets a little thicker, that is a very STRONG indicator of RI when combined with favorable conditions.

[bahamaswx]

I am ready!

[AdamFirst]

Yes I've been reading alot of people saying it would be Post-Tropical but then Bryan Norcross was making it sound like it could still be a Hurricane here in the Northeast...

It's a very delicate situation to handle. An unprecedented weather event like this, if it did verify, would probably require multiple agencies for exposure. The NHC may continue to track it, if the situation is dire enough, but if we were to play strictly by the weather rules then it would be the sole responsibility of the NWS (and other sub agencies like the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, which is the main agency for severe winter weather)

[artist]

I am ready!

stay safe bahamas! Check in when you can.

[cycloneye]

For those who live in the New England area, there is a thread at the winter forum for that area for you to discuss about any effects of still a tropical entity at that point? Or it will make the transition to a nor'easter type? Is still early to know but already the NWS offices up there are talking about it.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=113752&p=2282423#p2282423

[CrazyC83]

For those who live in the New England area, there is a thread at the winter forum for that area for you to discuss about any effects of may be still a tropical entity at that point? Or it will make the transition to a nor'easter type? Is still early to know but already the NWS offices up there are talking about it.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=113752&p=2282423#p2282423

That should eventually move here since exposure is greatest here.

[ozonepete]

lol inspite of the fact that the GFS seems to be coming on board with a northEast impact the NHC seems to be refusing to bite on this happening... Or would it be after 5 days that it would bend back to the west and impact us?

Any potential northeast impact is beyond the current 5 day forecast for the NHC. And after the system goes into post-tropical transition the NHC would hand it off to the NWS.

Yes I've been reading alot of people saying it would be Post-Tropical but then Bryan Norcross was making it sound like it could still be a Hurricane here in the Northeast...

It will be interesting to say the least. Hybrid storms are very difficult to predict and to handle for the NHC and weather services interacting with each other and emergency management. Sometimes they keep the name for continuity's sake and so the public knows it's serious, IF the storm still has tropical characteristics. Even if this is a hybrid there's the possibility that the NHC will continue advisories if it's a serious threat to the northeast. If it becomes completely post-tropical they will hand it off to the local offices. It's way too early to tell but the NHC discussions will probably talk about this plenty after Sandy passes over the Bahamas. Until then the only indications as to how long Sandy will have tropical characteristics will come from the model runs and I wouldn't trust them for impacts on the Northeast until at least Thursday late or Friday.

[CrazyC83]

If Sandy moves inland, would it weaken slowly or rapidly?

[SouthDadeFish]

VDM gave 60 knots as the estimated surface winds with 68 knot flight level winds. At least 55 knots at the surface now. Surface pressure is probably 988mb since the dropsonde measured 989 with 9 knots of wind. That would be a 3mb drop since recon was out there. Check out all the deep convection firing:



All the yellows are <-80C

[cycloneye]

Good radar to look as Sandy moves thru.