ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Latest flare is pretty much right over the LLC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 230645.jpg

[wxman57]

It's still fighting wind shear from that upper low near western Cuba, something the SHIPS guidance appears to miss with its current indication of low shear. Latest NHC track is close to model consensus, taking Sandy to the north-central Bahamas about 250 miles east of Miami by mid morning Friday followed by a turn to the NE. This is quite similar to the latest GFS runs and not TOO far east of the Canadian track, but it's a good bit east of the Euro. GFS has proven to be the best all season long. Question is - is it STILL the best? I think there's a good chance this storm could hook NW into southern New England as a large extratropical system on Monday/Tuesday.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting recon report.. convective comma at fl level center. its very likely we will soon see a center reformation in that area and given the satellite appearance and data we see some pretty explosive strengthening over the next day..

[canes04]

West shift continues. This may be to close for comfort!
Could be a nasty weekend in SFL.

[Bocadude85]

West shift continues. This may be to close for comfort!
Could be a nasty weekend in SFL.

I do not think we will see any direct effects from Sandy. Any nasty weather we get at the end of the week would most likely be indirect results of Sandy. Just my opinion of course.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm surprised how small the windfield is. I haven't seen this much continuous intense convection in ages:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

All it would take are a couple small west shifts for SEFL to get a TS watch. No need for anyone to panic yet, but just keep an eye out.

[adam0983]

How does a slower moving Sandy affect how far west Sandy will travel before the trough takes Sandy out to sea?

[Aric Dunn]

I'm surprised how small the windfield is. I haven't seen this much continuous intense convection in ages:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

All it would take are a couple small west shifts for SEFL to get a TS watch. No need for anyone to panic yet, but just keep an eye out.

they are already forecasting sustained 35 to 40 with gusts to 45 all the way up to central florida. I bet they put watches up its probably going to be close enough .

[CrazyC83]

I'm surprised how small the windfield is. I haven't seen this much continuous intense convection in ages:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

All it would take are a couple small west shifts for SEFL to get a TS watch. No need for anyone to panic yet, but just keep an eye out.

they are already forecasting sustained 35 to 40 with gusts to 45 all the way up to central florida. I bet they put watches up its probably going to be close enough .

A forecast of sustained 40 would be a High Wind Warning, but they might hold off on a TS watch if it is not directly due to Sandy and more due to pressure gradients.

[storm4u]

ugh we will see

[quote="wxman57"]It's still fighting wind shear from that upper low near western Cuba, something the SHIPS guidance appears to miss with its current indication of low shear. Latest NHC track is close to model consensus, taking Sandy to the north-central Bahamas about 250 miles east of Miami by mid morning Friday followed by a turn to the NE. This is quite similar to the latest GFS runs and not TOO far east of the Canadian track, but it's a good bit east of the Euro. GFS has proven to be the best all season long. Question is - is it STILL the best? I think there's a good chance this storm could hook NW into southern New England as a large extratropical system on Monday/Tuesday.[/quote]

[floridasun78]

look wave off miami beach http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/mia ... iamibeach1

[GCANE]

Looks to be picking up now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/18LP.GIF

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/18L.GIF


Hot towers did the trick again.

[cycloneye]

Those who want to see what is going on in Jamaica,there are a few web cams that you can look at. They are posted on the first post of the Caribbean-Central America Weather thread. Scroll down and you will find them.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[StormingB81]

What about here on the coast of NC

[cycloneye]

Discussion from Dr Jeff Masters.

Tropical Storm Sandy is on the move northwards towards Jamaica, and is slowly intensifying. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds near 50 mph in the storm's northeast quadrant at 9 am EDT. The latest center fix, taken at 10:20 am EDT, found that Sandy's pressure had fallen 2 mb since early this morning, to 995 mb. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 0.82" of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. and Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in an unusually moist environment with relative humidities above 80%, and is experiencing light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms have increased in areal extent, intensity, and organization this morning, as seen on satellite loops.


Sandy a potential threat to New England

Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Thursday morning. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicted a 62% chance that Sandy's winds would increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. However, the Hurricane Hunters found this morning that the center at 5,000 feet was displaced 7 miles from the surface center, and there was no indication that Sandy was building an eyewall, so I expect that the earliest Sandy could become a hurricane is Wednesday morning. The 5 am EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 49% chance that Sandy would be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday and the storm will have to cross the rugged terrain of Cuba, which should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph. By Friday, Sandy should be over warm waters in the Central Bahamas, but only modest re-intensification by 10 - 20 mph should occur, due to high wind shear. At that point, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast. The trough may steer Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models. However, an alternative solution, shown by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for the trough to inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits New England early next week with a central pressure of 948 mb and winds near hurricane-force. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are off by a full day in their predictions of when the storm would arrive, with the 06Z NOGAPS model predicting Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Sunday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model forecast predicts that Sandy will arrive in New England on Monday night. Stay tuned.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

New update to my 10 point scale, using the 11 am advisory. Also, I modified the surge point scale, there is no more 0 in that scale.

Tropical Storm Sandy
Advisory #5 11 am EDT October 24
Winds: 80 mph (3 - 70 to 85 mph)
Surge: 1 to 3 feet (2 - 3 to 6 feet)
Waves: 16 to 21 feet* (4 - 20 to 25 feet)
Rainfall: 6 to 12 inches, isolated amounts up to 16 iches (4 - 10.0 to 12.5 inches)
Inland Flooding: Flash flooding and mudslides possible (4 - Medium: Smaller rivers may flood, nuisance flooding likely. Some evacuations possible.)

Overall threat assessment:
On a scale of 0 to 10: 3.4

*Wave height taken from the Offshore Waters forecast.

[floridasun78]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

New update to my 10 point scale, using the 11 am advisory. Also, I modified the surge point scale, there is no more 0 in that scale.

Tropical Storm Sandy
Advisory #5 11 am EDT October 24
Winds: 80 mph (3 - 70 to 85 mph)
Surge: 1 to 3 feet (2 - 3 to 6 feet)
Waves: 16 to 21 feet* (4 - 20 to 25 feet)
Rainfall: 6 to 12 inches, isolated amounts up to 16 iches (4 - 10.0 to 12.5 inches)
Inland Flooding: Flash flooding and mudslides possible (4 - Medium: Smaller rivers may flood, nuisance flooding likely. Some evacuations possible.)


Overall threat assessment:
On a scale of 0 to 10: 3.4

*Wave height taken from the Offshore Waters forecast.

what area that for?

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. <snip>

what area that for?

That is for the Jamaica area. I used the information found in the public advisory for the surge, rainfall and flooding threats. Wind came from the peak winds prior to landfall in the forecast discussion (currently they have the system peaking at 70 knots, or 80 mph). And waves came from the Offshore Waters forecast, which includes the Caribbean.

[Caribwxgirl]

It's been raining all morning and has gotten heavier. I can no longer see the hills in the distance and Sandy's not even here yet.

[Bocadude85]

The NWS Miami is now calling for tropical storm conditions here.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=26.371622474420025&lon=-80.06848406372069