ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[stephen23]

Yes but thats is calculating for a hurricane 8am wed morning. Say this haooens by mid day tues would that cause even more of a west shift staying on left side of cone?

[floridasun78]

Yes but thats is calculating for a hurricane 8am wed morning. Say this haooens by mid day tues would that cause even more of a west shift staying on left side of cone?

we need see if nhc keep same or move it near sf coast line it depend when start moving and other weather system Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

Yes but thats is calculating for a hurricane 8am wed morning. Say this haooens by mid day tues would that cause even more of a west shift staying on left side of cone?

I don't see anything that indicates intensification would bring the storm to South Florida, or even bring it close enough to give anything more than some windy conditions Friday/Saturday. Even if the cone were to creep closer to the coast that is simply the error cone and not a prediction that the storm would head NNW.

[boca]

I don't think it's the strength of the storm but more of its movement would affect Sandy's path I think the NHC are on target this was never a Florida storm lets hope the GFS verifies to stay offshore the east coast.if this storm sits and spins then the path will change

[Sanibel]

Water Vapor shows a pretty big hurricane-blocking trough bellied down into the Gulf.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is a 10 point scale I designed, incorporating each major threat in it's own way (minus tornadoes, as they are too hard to predict from one TC to another), and then averaging the 5 together to get an "overall" threat assessment (OTA).

It is hard to get anything over a 6.0, for overall, on this scale (Katrina rated a 6.0 overall on August 28 with the 5 pm advisory). The reason is that you have to have a storm with very high winds, very high surge, very high waves, heavy rainfall with a high flooding potential...or a "perfect" storm, so to speak. What is interesting, though, is that using this technique, "minimum Category 1" Hurricane Issac (OTA 4.4) achieved a higher overall threat assessment than did "Category 2" Hurricane Isabel (OTA 3.8).

Tropical Storm Sandy
Advisory #3 11 pm EDT October 23 Landfall threats
Winds: 80 mph (3 - 70 to 85 mph)
Surge: None listed currently (0 - 0 to 3 feet)
Waves: At least 12 feet (2 - 10 to 15 feet)*
Rainfall: 5 to 10 inches, max 16 possible (3 - 7.5 to 10.0 inches)
Inland Flooding: Flash flooding and mudslides possible, Medium (4 - Medium: Smaller rivers may flood, nuisance flooding likely. Some evacuations possible.)

Overall threat assessment:
On a scale of 0.0 to 10.0: 2.4

*So far, it has been difficult to find anything related towards maximum wave size, even in the post storm reports. Anyone have any links to help with that?

Now, this is definitely a work in progress, and I may need to do some modifying as I get chances to use it in real-world tests. My main issue is that people may focus too much on the OTA. Katrina rated a 6.0 out of 10.0 overall, yet the wind threat was at 9.0 (10.0 is 175 mph + - an area I may edit some in the not too distant future), and the surge threat was at 7.0 (21 to 24 feet, though the advisory pointed out locally it could be as high as 28 feet, which would rate a 9.0).

I'll keep posting these every so often, as I have time to with the updated advisories. If you are interested, the current levels I'm using are in the thread in Talkin' Tropics about abandoning the Hurricane Scale. This is a cross between the HSI (Hurricane Severity Index) and IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) scales.

[northjaxpro]

Sandy now beginning its northward drift at the 5 a.m. advisory.

[Cyclenall]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TS Sandy is going to be the last chance for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season to produce something full of quality. It will either continue the mediocre poop or explode and do something new for once in the last few years. The funniest thing that can happen is it pulls a Wilma and becomes Hurricane Wilma 2.0. If it became the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed in the Atlantic, that would be the funniest thing ever.

What has caught my attention though is how fast this thing is getting going down there, I took a look yesterday (now 48 hours ago) and thought it looked messy and disorganized. I estimated that it would take 4 days for anything to happen. In 24 hours, it became TS Sandy and not only that but the genesis reminds me strongly of how Hurricane Wilma formed however I think its origins are different. The process is quite fast and the way its rotating and consolidating is something we have not seen this year in this basin, maybe in the Wpac and Epac. Its really in a perfect situation to intensify into a major whopper of a hurricane but will it just get to CAT1/2 or become the strongest this year? It does look like a rocket is about to take off and I don't say that lightly in such a crappy season.

REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING THAT SANDY SHOULD REMAIN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 5 KT...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT...OVER SSTS OF 29-30C...AND OVER
UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES GREATER THAN 70 UNITS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL
REFLECTS THIS WITH A 64 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INTENSITY
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The NHC knows what's coming. Basically, RI is going to happen and we all know it. It has sharp hot towers firing off and is very close to a hot eddy of TCHP values over 70 units. When you have everything that is mentioned and the SHIPS RI Index that high (BTW, I haven't seen it wrong more than a few times), you just know. Interesting to see subtropical forecasted at the end of the period, don't recall seeing that one yet.

On a minor side note, we are very close to tying the last 3 years at 19 named storms and being in a 5-way tie for 3rd busiest season recorded in the Atlantic using NS's as the gauge. My prediction in September for how many more named storms was something like 6 to bring us to 19 named storms at the end.

[somethingfunny]

But - where is the center???

[weatherwindow]

Here is this morning's Area Forecast Discussion from NWS/Miami

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[GCANE]

Massive Hot Tower firing for the last 4 hours SE of the LLC

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... bean.0.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 230115.jpg


Anti-cyclone to the SW of the LLC and small UL PV anomaly to the SE of the LLC

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF


AMSU not providing any close-to-RT core temp profiles at this time.

[GCANE]

I have a feeling this could end up being a huge system.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[jlauderdal]

I have a feeling this could end up being a huge system.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

no doubt there will be a substantial amount of energy coming together in the SW atlantic in a few days, be interesting to see if we end up with a tight system or one that is weaker and thus more expansive..there is a very short window for these types of scenarios within the hurricane season and they don't come along very often

[GCANE]

Nice hot tower popping to the NE and close-to the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 230315.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[GCANE]

Can see the very big overshooting top from the NE hot-tower on VIS

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

[sfwx]

NWS pretty confident that Sandy stays offshore.


000
FXUS62 KMLB 230812
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
412 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...TROPICAL STORM SANDY TO BRING INCREASING WINDS...WAVES AND
BEACH EROSION LATER THIS WEEK...

CURRENT...RADAR DETECTING SHOWERS IN THE WESTWARD MOVING STRATOCU
FIELD OVER THE ATLANTIC.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES RIDGES OVER
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. TROPICAL STORM SANDY
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF JAMAICA EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTHWARD
TODAY. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WAS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.



WED-THU...THE LATEST GFS INDICATES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA WED NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU NIGHT. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST. LOCALLY...THIS WILL KEEP A BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW
WED...WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THU REACHING 20-25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THU.



FRI-MON...00Z GFS TURNS TC SANDY PRETTY SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT
(E/NE) FRI ONCE IT CLEAR THE BAHAMAS BUT THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES
IT NORTHWARD ROUGHLY ALONG 76W LONGITUDE AND DOES NOT SHOW THE
SYSTEM RETROGRADING BACK TOWARD THE FL EAST COAST AS MUCH. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ON A N/NE
TRACK THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
AROUND 74W LONGITUDE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF CENT FL...JUST SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR OFFSHORE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH AND POPS WOULD
ACTUALLY BE QUITE LOW. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT)
POPS FRI AND SAT WITH DRIER AIR GETTING PULLED DOWN SUNDAY AS
"SANDY" PULLS AWAY.

EVEN WITH THE FARTHER OFFSHORE GFS SOLUTION...WINDS NEAR 30 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE INDICATED FRI/SAT ALONG THE COAST AS THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE STRENGTHENING. A CLOSER APPROACH...SIMILAR
TO THE 00Z ECMWF...COULD PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS.

THE EXPECTED NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION IS OPTIMAL FOR BEACH
EROSION ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. WITH THE DURATION
LASTING SEVERAL DAYS...WE MAY BE IN FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND SWELLS WILL
MAKE THE SURF ZONE VERY HAZARDOUS.



SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY

[gatorcane]

There is an upper-level low over Cuba right now that looks to be slowly west. I haven't seen any comments about the role this upper-level low will play as far as Sandy's track and intensity?

[blp]

Not as organized as it may appear.

000
URNT12 KNHC 231240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 23/11:51:40Z
B. 13 deg 22 min N
077 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1391 m
D. 22 kt
E. 307 deg 29 nm
F. 044 deg 24 kt
G. 307 deg 88 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 17 C / 1519 m
J. 20 C / 1519 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 0218A SANDY OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 12:18:30Z
Sfc cntr 340/12nm from flight level center. Flight level center up against convection

[Aric Dunn]

Everyone in florida should be watching this very closely. they are calling for winds of sustained TS over the florida peninsula all the way up to central florida. do to the angle of approach a wobble or reformation of the center as it leaves cuba could bring much stronger winds and rain over florida.

[Frank2]

Yes, but it's stopped it's SW movement of yesterday and after hours of being stationary is now moving slowly NNE - decades ago when in the tropical meteorology business I was taught that because the atmosphere is a fluid entity a tropical system will always favor a weakness (I'd have to chuckle at comments here about hurricanes "powering through highs"), so right now the weakness is towards the NE, and in the end it's movement might be more towards the eastward edge of the cone, if not further eastward, so for Florida residents it's just a wait and see situation...

Frank