ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#181 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:45 pm

Recon just found pressure as low as 999.0mb at 12.28N and 78.10W

weatherwindow · #182 Postby **weatherwindow** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:55 pm

Have we seen a VDM as of yet?....Edit: must of missed it..Sandy at 500pm....40mph...999mb...12.5N 78.5W

WeatherGuesser · #183 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:57 pm

Apparently some folks in the upper East coast area are getting antsy. Should they?

#184 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:59 pm

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...

#185 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:00 pm

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 78.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

jaxfladude · #186 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:00 pm

Hello "Sandy". Hope she is not one of the nasty ones, at worst an annoying lady. Prayers to anyone that gets impacted by her in a bad way.

#187 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:05 pm

Happy 90L (td 19) didn't get my name!

#188 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:10 pm

#189 Postby **OuterBanker** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:13 pm

Apperently, a local met now says that all the models have shifted well offshore. Enjoy the week because it will be beautiful all week.
Good news, but maybe a bit premature.

#190 Postby **HurricaneBelle** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:19 pm

If the Canadian and some other models verify, I'm wondering if Springsteen will write a song titled "28th of October, Asbury Park (Sandy)".

artist · #191 Postby **artist** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:33 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Happy 90L (td 19) didn't get my name!

good to see you around! Miss your input. What are your thoughts on Sandy, your name sake?

#192 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:38 pm

[quote="artist"][quote="HURAKAN"]Happy 90L (td 19) didn't get my name![/quote]
good to see you around! Miss your input. What are your thoughts on Sandy, your name sake?[/quote]

Nice model consensus on its future path, becomes more uncertain in the 4-5 days timeframe, which is normal. The main threat will be the heavy rainfall it's likely to produce over Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and Bahamas.

#193 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:39 pm

artist wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Happy 90L (td 19) didn't get my name!

good to see you around! Miss your input. What are your thoughts on Sandy, your name sake?

I miss you rposts too, Sandy. Great to see you're a pro met now!

#194 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:41 pm

In 24 hours from this:

To this:

Just a wee bit of organization there.

#195 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:41 pm

[quote="ozonepete"][quote="artist"][quote="HURAKAN"]Happy 90L (td 19) didn't get my name![/quote]
good to see you around! Miss your input. What are your thoughts on Sandy, your name sake?[/quote]

I miss you rposts too, Sandy. Great to see you're a pro met now![/quote]

Thanks. I have been lurking around, busy with grad school at FIU and working on my thesis on the reanalysis of the 1955-1964 Atlantic hurricane seasons. Hope everyone is doing great!!

#196 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:52 pm

There's something about Sandy's convective structure that reminds me of Wilma... Both were large monsoonal systems in the W Carib in late October. Wilma also had that displaced band of convection off to the NE of the main burst over the center.

By no means am I saying Sandy will pull a Wilma.

Wilma as a weak TS:

Sandy now:

#197 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 5:03 pm

This is the late afternoon discussion by Dr Jeff Masters of Sandy and the place in history.

The Hurricane Hunters found a band of 40 mph winds on the southeast side of Tropical Depression Eighteen this afternoon, prompting NHC to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Sandy. Sandy is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and Sandy's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on satellite loops.

Forecast for Sandy

Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday afternoon. This should allow continued development of Sandy, and rapid development is possible. The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. The 5 pm EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gave a 25% chance that Sandy will be a hurricane by 2 pm EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should weaken Sandy. By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear. Heavy rains are the main threat from Sandy.

Sandy's place in history

Sandy is the eighteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1969 for seventh busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (18 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin.

#198 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 5:07 pm

>>>Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear

Not according to the 18Z GFS run. It goes bonkers with Sandy in the Bahamas.

#199 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 5:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:>>>Sandy is not a threat to be a hurricane at that time, due to very high wind shear

Not according to the 18Z GFS run. It goes bonkers with Sandy in the Bahamas.

That would be more due to baroclinic forcing I would think, as Sandy would be beginning extratropical transition.

#200 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 22, 2012 5:25 pm

Last visible image of this day. Even with the sun going down,it looks formidable.

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