Solo climber on Everest

[Laplacian]

In the late 1980s (circa 1987), I was part of a team that provided daily forecasts for a U.S. team of climbers on Mount Everest (they were from Wyoming, if I recall correctly). Ever since then, I've been fascinated by Everest.

Location of Everest: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... _pol90.jpg

The most common window for "safely" summiting Everest is early May...before the onset of the Southeast Asia monsoon and late enough for winds in the upper troposphere to subside (receding polar jet stream and a weakening subtropical jet stream). There's a secondary window in early October (end of the SE Asian monsoon and prior to the arrival/intensification of the polar and subtropical jets).

Right now, there is a solo Japanese climber on Everest who is taking an often fatal line to the summit.

Story: http://www.explorersweb.com/everest_k2/ ... p?id=21087

The 300-mb winds at 06Z today (link below) were pretty nasty for summiting...below is the link to the GFS 06Z model analysis of 300-mb heights (in decameters), winds, and isotachs (in knots).

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... wnd_ht.gif

As you can see, the confluence of the polar jet stream and the 300-mb footprint of the subtropical jet stream over China produced seasonably strong 300-mb winds in the confluence zone, with 70-knot+ winds hanging back westward over Everest (the light-blue-filled isotach).

The GFS predicts 300-mb wind speeds to ease next week (link to the 06Z GFS loop below), so maybe the Japanese climber will have a window. Either way, it takes a lot of courage to be on that mountain alone at this time of year, taking an often fatal summiting route. Caution: The loop has limited shelf life.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[brunota2003]

I see 80 knots just NE of Everest's location. Insane!

[Laplacian]

Agreed 100%. Man, climbing Everest alone on a known fatal trail with summit winds near hurricane-force (see how I got a tropical reference in there... )...he's either insane as you say, very, very confident, or, perhaps, he has a feeling that he's immortal.

[Laplacian]

The solo Japanese climber on Everest, Kuriki Nobukazu, is still in C3 (Camp3). He's planning to move to C4 (8000 meters =26000+ feet) tonight. Among mountaineers, 8000 meters marks the start of the "death zone," altitudes where there is not enough oxygen to support human life for extended periods of time. The fact that the Japanese mountaineer climbs without oxygen means that the clock starts ticking tonight at C4.

At 06Z today, it looks like Everest summit winds were in the neighborhood of 35-45 knots. Not a picnic, that's for sure.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... d_ht_0.gif

I'm writing this in the comfort of my home, sitting at the kitchen table with a cup of hot coffee. It's very sobering for me to imagine this man huddled all alone in the rarefied chill of 7200 meters on the highest mountain in the world and about to enter the Death Zone on a path where the percentage ratio of deaths to summits is 180%. Very sobering indeed.

[Sanibel]

Well he can always turn back. I think the reason most do it in May is because of daylight and an improving season instead of deteriorating. Also, I think the monsoon shows up at that altitude as snow, so you are at the tail-end of snow-season. (Avalanche) You can get sudden improvement windows on Everest just as much as you can get sudden storms.

[Laplacian]

Well he can always turn back. I think the reason most do it in May is because of daylight and an improving season instead of deteriorating. Also, I think the monsoon shows up at that altitude as snow, so you are at the tail-end of snow-season. (Avalanche) You can get sudden improvement windows on Everest just as much as you can get sudden storms.

I don't believe you know what you're talking about.

The May window must come before the onset of the monsoon, not during the monsoon as you speculate...so your claim about the monsoon is incorrect. That's because weather "deteriorates" during late spring and summer, not winter.

Regarding your notion that May is the "tail-end of snow season"... No, it's pretty much the opposite of what you say. Most of Everest's precipitation falls during the monsoon season, not during winter (yes, there are winter storms, but snow during the monsoon accounts for the lion's share of Everest's precipitation).

May also marks the time when jet stream winds relax from the breakneck speeds of winter (below is the May climatological 300-mb winds in meters per second).

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... .16.14.png

The bottom line is that most climb Everest during May, before the onset of the monsoon and after jet-stream winds relax.

If you want to learn more about the May window for climbing Everest, check this out:

http://www.explorersweb.com/adventureweather/monsoon/

Hope this helps.

[Sanibel]

No, you misunderstood me. I meant the October climbing season window was at the tail-end of the snow-depositing monsoon. I used to read Outside magazine. The reason most do it in May is daylight and the tail-end of dry season. I meant improving in the form of daylight and warmth, so I guess I understand your confusion. I meant it in the context that after the narrow October window conditions deteriorate with the onset of the wicked Himalayan winter.

I hope they find Mallory's camera...

[Ptarmigan]

That is really hard core right there!

[Laplacian]

No, you misunderstood me. I meant the October climbing season window was at the tail-end of the snow-depositing monsoon. I used to read Outside magazine. The reason most do it in May is daylight and the tail-end of dry season. I meant improving in the form of daylight and warmth, so I guess I understand your confusion. I meant it in the context that after the narrow October window conditions deteriorate with the onset of the wicked Himalayan winter.

I hope they find Mallory's camera...

Understood. Thanks.

Here's the latest on the Japanese climber:

http://www.explorersweb.com/everest_k2/ ... p?id=21098

Imagine, one wrong move (turn an ankle, for example), and you're dead. No rescue. I mean this is off the charts. I hope he makes it.

[Sanibel]

Canceled summit push due to gusts.

[Laplacian]

Thanks for the update. As I suspected, winds were going to be the issue. Really dangerous stuff at 29000+ feet.

[Laplacian]

300-mb winds as strong as 80 knots in the vicinity of Everest at 06Z today (06Z GFS model analysis below).

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... d_ht_1.gif

[Laplacian]

Here's a summary regarding the fate of the Japanese climber:

Times listed are Nepal Time Zone. BC = Base Camp, C2 = Camp 2, etc.

10/7 ~ 10/8 BC
10/9 BC -> C2
10/10 ~ 10/11 C2
10/12 C2
10/13 C2 -> C3 @7,200m
10/14 C3
10/15 C3
10/16 C3.5 @ 7,500m
10/17 C3.5
* start ascending (19:15)
* arrived at the base of Hornbein(23:00)

10/18 * start retreating (06:00)
the elevation or location
not announced yet.
* returned to C.3.5 (17:30)

10/19 * called rescue,
* Sherpa arrived at C3.5 (night),
and immediately begun descending.

10/20 arrived C2 (06:00)

It seems like he had some sort of Sherpa support even above C3. He has been above 7,200m almost 1 week. Cannot imagine one can bring up that much food, gas, and tent, etc.

[brunota2003]

So he didn't make it to the top, and had to call in the rescue crew to get him down?

[Laplacian]

Yes, that's my take.

Sometimes there's a fine line between courage and stupidity. I'm glad he had enough sense to turn back.

Here's a comment from the Everest Web site I referenced:

"On Sunday he was air lifted at C2 and now in a hospital at Katmandu. He posts a photograph of himself on his twitter.

https://twitter.com/kurikiyama

Wish he get well soon."

[Laplacian]

So he didn't make it to the top, and had to call in the rescue crew to get him down?

My friend (brunota2003),

I was rummaging through the upper-air data this morning over Asia, and I saw a very nice example showing how the subtropical jet stream is not rooted in deep tropospheric temperature gradients (unlike the polar jet stream).

Here's the 06Z GFS model analysis of 200 mb isotachs (200 mb is a representative pressure altitude for the STJ). Wind speeds are designated in knots.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... 1_2012.gif

Annotated version:

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... otated.png

Now look at wind speeds at 300 mb, 400 mb, and 500 mb (hyperlinks listed below). The STJ really doesn't have a footprint at 500 mb. That's because the STJ is driven primarily by the conservation of angular momentum in the upper branch of the Hadley Cell.

06Z GFS model analysis at 300 mb: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... 1_2012.gif (300 mb is a typical level to observe the polar jet stream...you can clearly see its footprint and how it merges with the 300-mb footprint of the STJ off the east coast of Asia)

06Z GFS model analysis at 400 mb: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... 1_2012.gif (STJ going...going...)

06Z GFS model analysis at 00 mb: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... 1_2012.gif (...gone)

Anyway, I thought it was a classic example of the relatively shallow layer in which the vertical structure of the subtropical jet can be discerned...typically a relatively shallow layer between 400 mb and 150 mb.

[brunota2003]

Did you see the photo of himself? He's most likely going to loose at least some of his fingers. All of them are black!

[Laplacian]

Did you see the photo of himself? He's most likely going to loose at least some of his fingers. All of them are black!

Yes! There is indeed a fine line between courage and stupidity.