Texas Fall 2012

[Ntxw]

The thrill is gone. Somebody out there give me give me some hope..... Halloween?

Don't worry it will come there are subtle signs of it. End of this month, and November could potentially be special if analogs and teleconnections prove right, I know we haven't had a decent cold nov in awhile and this year might make up for it. For now we have to endure an unfavorable pattern as the arctic/sub-arctic regions reload. Good things come to those who wait

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The biggest cold shot i remember was on thanksgiving 2009 i believe. Driving to UT for the UT-A&M game, temp dropped from 80, to the 40's in half an hour. Was in the 30's by game time and was fairly windy for the game. On my way back home that night, Houston was covered with continuous rain showers.

[weatherdude1108]

I was getting depressed myself looking at the extended yesterday. Then this morning, the Austin/San Antonio discussion mentioned enough upper air energy for strong or possibly isolated severe storms this weekend, and a blurb of the GFS hinting persistently at a cold front at the end of next week. "We'll see" :

4:08 am discussion this morning (10/11/12)
"AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
INLAND TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION IT
WILL OPEN UP TO A TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND DRAG A (PACIFIC) COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EXTREME NWRN CWA. THE BEST AREA-WIDE CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT DIPPING INTO OUR AREA TO WARRANT MENTION OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED SEVERE...LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK. MID/LONG RANGE MODELS
AREN`T IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FRONT...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY PERSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS SO HAVE INDICATED COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE TAIL-END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE`LL SEE."

[Portastorm]

I'm on board with Ntxw about a late month cold shot. The GFS has been consistent in showing a major cold front late in the month. While it is still in "la-la land," the model has been consistent enough for me to give me increasing confidence.

TeamPlayersBlue ... I remember that Thanksgiving. The one I remember more though was 1993 ... ice/sleet bowl at Cowboys Stadium (Leon Lett anyone?) and an icy Kyle Field for the big Texas-Texas A&M football game. Who knows, we could see something like that again this year. Wouldn't surprise me.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah that was a memorable Thanksgiving. The ice even went down to San Antonio before it was all said and done that night. A nice chill in the air is always welcome around the holidays. This year i may be in Ft. Lauderdale with family though. In 2010 I was there for Christmas and it was brutally cold. Dipped below freezing or was close to freezing more than once and wasnt very warm at all in between fronts.

[Longhornmaniac8]

The biggest cold shot i remember was on thanksgiving 2009 i believe. Driving to UT for the UT-A&M game, temp dropped from 80, to the 40's in half an hour. Was in the 30's by game time and was fairly windy for the game. On my way back home that night, Houston was covered with continuous rain showers.

That game caused me to join here!

[somethingfunny]

Try not to get ahead of ourselves too much. There's a risk of severe weather for North Texas on Saturday night.

[Ntxw]

Hopefully the linear mode look on the models hold true. Doesn't appear right now like a tornado outbreak, mostly straight line winds, heavy rain, and maybe small hail.

This isn't the only rain maker however, like the theme so far this early fall another shortwave/low will traverse the southern half of the state from the baja and generate a slug of rain early/mid next week as it passes through heading up the gulf coast to the eastern seaboard. Houston and Austin may get in position for rain/cool temps from that as well.

[Portastorm]

The Portastorm Weather Center has temporarily relocated for the weekend to Lubbock. I'm hoping to see some severe weather this evening and may even get to do a little chasing with some Texas Tech kids who do a lot of chasing. Out here this weekend to check on my investment (college freshman). Woot!

[Tireman4]

The Portastorm Weather Center has temporarily relocated for the weekend to Lubbock. I'm hoping to see some severe weather this evening and may even get to do a little chasing with some Texas Tech kids who do a lot of chasing. Out here this weekend to check on my investment (college freshman). Woot!

You lucky bunch of vodka swilling mets. Not fair. Your PWC BETTER bring back pictures before you all are too drunk to tell the difference between a tornado and a snowstorm. Ha ha

[Terri]

Yeah that was a memorable Thanksgiving. The ice even went down to San Antonio before it was all said and done that night. A nice chill in the air is always welcome around the holidays. This year i may be in Ft. Lauderdale with family though. In 2010 I was there for Christmas and it was brutally cold. Dipped below freezing or was close to freezing more than once and wasnt very warm at all in between fronts.

I remember that Thanksgiving myself. It was the Thanksgiving that I caught on fire cooking.... Luckily my husband saw it on my back and beat out the flames. I thought for a moment, he didn't like how the turkey was coming out.

[Rgv20]

This the 0zGFS in la la land.....It shows some very cold air for October standards coming down to Texas 10+ days out. Now it is just one run but the GFS is just reminding us that winter is just around the corner!


0zGFS Forecast for October 24...Look at that 1041 mb High!



At the same time frame as above it shows the 0c 850mb temperature line all the way down to Dallas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That would be a huge front. I'm not sure thats possible right now though. It's gone off of the 06z now. Looks like the models are trying to put something together for late in the month though.

[Ntxw]

The more important feature we should read from the runs is big high pressure shown from Alaska and descending PV from the arctic. Raised heights at 5h over western North America has been for many runs. That type of pattern gives credibility to the potential. If that pattern held true, origin would be possible cross-polar flow.

October is a strong month in terms of using it as an indicator for winter. This is where we stand the first ten days relative to average.



Closest analog for the first 10 days to our "surprise"



2009 was the next closest but a little too warm for TX. Even the other El Ninos came in warm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

great posts for the analogs. notice the blocking in '76 was a bit further south in the NE

[BlueIce]

How about a tornado watch for you guys today!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FROM NW TX INTO WRN OK...ALONG AND JUST E OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. A NARROW ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING TO THE W OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION FROM N TX INTO CENTRAL OK...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE OF A THREAT LATER AS STORMS POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A
MORE SOLID LINE CLOSER TO I-35 IN OK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[Ntxw]

Look at that cold air building in western Canada! And yet further upstream at that omega block in Alaska. And one more at what's flowing down from the Arctic. If you you do the math...you can see that our warm loving friend is quickly booking his flight

[Ntxw]

What to look forward to the rest of this month and into November (when wintry precip becomes possible month!). NAO and AO have both tanked. PNA is positive right now but is forecasted to head back negative. The EPO will return to very negative but not this week as we are still in zonal flow. So 2/3 signals point to colder air sliding down. I think the -PNA is likely due to split flow and cutoff lows hanging around the Pacific NW/W so it's not a strong influence (just my opinion it may be completely wrong).

1976 and 2009 are the two best fit analogs for the beginning of Oct.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Who else is being dominated by allergies for the last week. Killing me over here.

[Portastorm]

Who else is being dominated by allergies for the last week. Killing me over here.

Most of the Austin metropolitan area ...