Crownweather's discussion of 98L.
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http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557Invest 98L Located Just East Of The Windward Islands & Barbados:
Of more concern is Invest 98L which is located about 400 miles to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is fairly robust and continues to become better organized. Additionally, tropical storm force winds are occurring on the north side of the circulation and this system has a fairly good chance of becoming a tropical storm either today or at the latest on Friday. So, the Canadian model may have been on something a couple of days ago and I should have given it more weight.
Invest 98L is expected to track very near Barbados later this afternoon or this evening and then across the Windward Islands late tonight into Friday morning. Residents and vacationers on Barbados and in the Windward Islands should be prepared for tropical storm conditions with wind gusts to 50 mph, heavy rainfall and very rough seas from this afternoon through tonight and into Friday. Since this is a pretty large system, much of the Leeward Islands will also be affected by strong winds of up to 40 to 50 mph, heavy rainfall and very rough seas from this afternoon right into Friday.
Once Invest 98L is in the eastern Caribbean on Friday it is expected to turn sharply northwestward and track across while intensifying to a moderate to strong tropical storm. I think a track right over Puerto Rico seems plausible on Saturday with tropical storm conditions likely across Puerto Rico and the US/British Virgin Island on Friday night through Saturday.
Once this system is past Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands it is forecast to turn north and north-northeastward and potentially intensify into a hurricane and possibly impact Bermuda right around Tuesday.