Tropical Wave Pouch P36L in East Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

How about the SAL ahead and during the possible trip of this twave/low? Could the SAL be an inhibitor factor? Any thoughts about that Cycloneye?Thanks for your input and welcomed comments always well appreciated in this forum.

Right now,the SAL is almost none where the wave is and ahead of it. There is plenty to the NE of the wave. Let's see how this factor plays a roll down the road.

Thanks to you. Conditions seems quite conducive if the SAL stays like that. We have and again to wait and see.

[cycloneye]

The 18z Surface Analysis made by TAFB has low well alive and going down in pressure a little bit it seems in 24 hours.

[Gustywind]

The 18z Surface Analysis made by TAFB has low well alive and going down in pressure a little bit it seems in 24 hours.

Yeah Cycloneye, and that's not a good sign to see a low pretty south for all of those who lived in the EC and NE Carib islands.

[Gustywind]

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/8623/trackall2012100712tcatl.png

Any link with this interresting graphic? Thanks

[cycloneye]

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/8623/trackall2012100712tcatl.png

Any link with this interresting graphic? Thanks

That graphic was posted on another forum without a link.

[Gustywind]

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/8623/trackall2012100712tcatl.png

Any link with this interresting graphic? Thanks

That graphic was posted on another forum without a link.

yeah but is explicit and that's a good news . By the way, when approximately the islands could could be eventually concerned if if if this thing developped ( should it verifies first!) or may approach the 60W? Any idea about that Cycloneye?

[cycloneye]

Gusty,too early yet to know for sure what may occur on both development (If any) and on the timeframe. By next Tuesday may be a good time to see how things are on the models,on how the wave is moving slow or fast and in what direction to have a better idea. Unless before that NHC starts to mention it at Tropical Weather Outlooks and a invest is up.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Gusty,too early yet on both development (If any) and on the timeframe. By next Tuesday may be a good time to see how things are on the models,on how the wave is moving slow or fast and in what direction to have a better idea. Unless before that NHC starts to mention it at Tropical Weather Outlooks and a invest is up.

Excellent analysis . Yeah 100% agree, wait and see.

[blp]

18z GFS takes an unusual path for October with the system entering the eastern carribean then getting north of Hispaniola and then heading due west into the western carribean and puts it an prime strengthening location south of Cuba.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP372.gif

[cycloneye]

18z GFS takes an unusual path for October with the system entering the eastern carribean then getting north of Hispaniola and then heading due west into the western carribean and puts it an prime strengthening location south of Cuba.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP372.gif

I have to tell you is an odd run with that track but who knows what mother nature has instored.

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion of wave.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N32W TO 9N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE WHERE A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
31W-33W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

[cycloneye]

Due to the satellite problems recently that we know,that part is in black but the Eumetsat has it covered well. Here is the wave on 00:00 UTC saved image.

[cycloneye]

Is now pouch P36L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2012/P36L.html

P36L
12N, 27W
850 hPa

ECMWF: Distinct pouch at all times. Tracks south of 12N for much of the time, but then gains latitude at the end. OW is fairly steady.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, but a bit faster.

UKMET: Gains more latitude and OW increases more than in ECMWF and GFS.

NOGAPS: Phase speed is slower, but the track and OW are similar to UKMET.

HWRF-GEN: Similar to GFS, with a fast phase speed.

[cycloneye]

New ASCAT pass made around 7:00 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS develops into a TD/Weak TS and tracks over Puerto Rico in 240 hours. Wow,it put the breaks and crawls thru the NE Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

10%.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE PRODUCING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[RL3AO]

Is now Invest 98L

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