#4 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:32 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
156.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST
OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY DISORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF A BROAD AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030247
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A VERY ILL DEFINED LLCC WITH
VERY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF STRONG
(25-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TUTT CELL HAS
FORMED OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SECOND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING WEST OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD, BUT THE
CURRENT DISTURBANCE IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THAT
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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