![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img528/3866/wp1912.gif)
45 knots...
WTPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 23.7N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 139.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.8N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 28.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.5N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 34.4N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 39.3N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 45.8N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 139.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
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WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY
DISPLACED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, DESPITE THE VWS,
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED, PRIMARILY FUELED BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 7 DEGREES
NORTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST THAT IS CAUSING THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 19W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL REGAIN A MORE
POLEWARD STORM MOTION AS THE STR REBUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS THE STRONG OUTFLOW PERSISTS AND THE VWS RELAXES SLIGHTLY
AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES MORE IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 19W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR AGAIN WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SYSTEM
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 12O. INCREASING VWS AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER WILL ALSO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN ALL TAUS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. //
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