95 knots...
WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 34.2N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 38.5N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 43.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 128.0E.
TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH OF BUSAN,
SOUTH KOREA HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH OF
BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHT EAST-WEST ELONGATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 22 NM RAGGED EYE. A 160017Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS AN EYE AS WELL AS TWO OUTER BANDS OF
CONVECTION APPROXIMATELY 120 NM TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE STORM
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OF TAIWAN. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST, DRIER AIR IS RESULTING IN DECREASED CONVECTION IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES AS 17W
REMAINS LINKED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MODERATE
(10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF 17W WHILE 30-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR IS BEGINNING
TO IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF JAPAN REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY AFTER TAU 2. AS TY SANBA TRACKS NORTHWARD, INCREASING
VWS, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (<26 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN DECREASING INTENSITIES. TYPHOON
SANBA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF USAN, SOUTH KOREA BETWEEN
TAUS 24 AND 36 AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. 17W WILL TRANSITION TO A FULL
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 48 AFTER IT BRIEFLY CROSSES THE SEA OF
JAPAN AND MAKES A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL NEAR THE NORTH
KOREA/RUSSIA BORDER. DUE TO THE STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, 17W MAY BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH SOME DIVERGENCE AFTER TAU 24. WBAR HAS
NOW MOVED CLOSER TO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A MORE EASTWARD
SOLUTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT AND AHEAD OF CONSENSUS BASED ON KNOWN MODEL
BIASES.//
NNNN
