ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
To let you know that the model run posted was at the 92L discussion thread so what I did was to turn the post into a thread of models for 92L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
First Model Plots
Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2059 UTC SAT SEP 15 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120915 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120915 1800 120916 0600 120916 1800 120917 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 53.0W 13.8N 54.9W 14.5N 56.5W 15.0N 58.0W
BAMD 13.0N 53.0W 13.7N 56.2W 14.4N 58.9W 15.0N 61.3W
BAMM 13.0N 53.0W 13.7N 55.5W 14.5N 57.6W 15.1N 59.6W
LBAR 13.0N 53.0W 13.7N 55.6W 14.7N 58.1W 15.5N 60.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120917 1800 120918 1800 120919 1800 120920 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.6N 59.9W 16.6N 64.1W 18.0N 68.5W 19.1N 72.9W
BAMD 15.4N 63.5W 16.0N 68.2W 16.8N 73.0W 18.0N 77.4W
BAMM 15.6N 61.6W 16.5N 66.2W 17.7N 71.2W 18.9N 76.3W
LBAR 16.5N 62.2W 17.6N 65.9W 18.9N 69.9W 21.0N 74.0W
SHIP 59KTS 78KTS 89KTS 96KTS
DSHP 59KTS 78KTS 89KTS 89KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 53.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 50.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
cycloneye wrote:To let you know that the model run posted was at the 92L discussion thread so what I did was to turn the post into a thread of models for 92L.
I understand .
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
NOGAPS is the only global model that so far develops 92L.
12z run.
12z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
The models are reallt anemic for this one, I do believe the models are underestimating this, but I also do think that this will be weaker than the SHIPS and LBAR have in their output
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
00z Models
Code: Select all
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120916 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120916 0000 120916 1200 120917 0000 120917 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 54.3W 13.9N 56.0W 14.5N 57.4W 14.9N 59.1W
BAMD 13.3N 54.3W 14.0N 57.3W 14.8N 60.0W 15.4N 62.4W
BAMM 13.3N 54.3W 14.0N 56.6W 14.7N 58.7W 15.3N 60.9W
LBAR 13.3N 54.3W 14.2N 56.8W 15.2N 59.1W 16.1N 61.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120918 0000 120919 0000 120920 0000 120921 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 60.9W 16.4N 65.5W 17.6N 70.4W 18.7N 75.2W
BAMD 15.9N 64.7W 16.9N 69.5W 18.4N 73.9W 19.9N 76.9W
BAMM 15.8N 63.1W 16.7N 67.9W 18.0N 73.0W 19.4N 77.1W
LBAR 17.1N 62.9W 18.6N 66.6W 20.2N 70.5W 21.6N 73.3W
SHIP 57KTS 77KTS 89KTS 97KTS
DSHP 57KTS 77KTS 89KTS 92KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 51.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 49.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Apparently some GFS ensembles want to develop it, but the operational run drops it after a day or so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
GFS Ensembles. Will the operational GFS come aboard?
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Take a look at intensity guidance if it gets into the W. Carribean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
blp wrote:Take a look at intensity guidance if it gets into the W. Carribean.
yep the SHIPS likes it a whole lot.....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
blp wrote:Take a look at intensity guidance if it gets into the W. Carribean.
A cyclone that deep will likely turn towards the north earlier with all that troughing in the SE US.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
12z Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 161302
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1302 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120916 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120916 1200 120917 0000 120917 1200 120918 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 54.9W 14.0N 56.5W 14.5N 58.2W 15.0N 60.1W
BAMD 13.3N 54.9W 13.8N 57.6W 14.1N 60.3W 14.4N 62.9W
BAMM 13.3N 54.9W 13.9N 57.0W 14.4N 59.2W 14.8N 61.3W
LBAR 13.3N 54.9W 13.9N 57.2W 14.6N 59.6W 15.2N 61.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120918 1200 120919 1200 120920 1200 120921 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 62.1W 16.5N 66.5W 17.5N 71.1W 18.1N 75.6W
BAMD 14.6N 65.5W 15.3N 70.6W 16.2N 75.0W 16.9N 78.9W
BAMM 15.1N 63.8W 15.7N 68.9W 16.6N 74.2W 17.5N 79.1W
LBAR 15.8N 64.2W 16.7N 69.0W 18.5N 73.6W 20.8N 78.3W
SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 80KTS 87KTS
DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 80KTS 87KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 54.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 50.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
floridasun78 wrote:so models dont want now make turn toward south fl ?
Well looking at the end of that run, it would appear as if 92L is slowing down some (which would make sense given the anticipated long wave & trough position). As quick ascent northward in the mid term would appear to shear the system apart. Looks like a set up that could add some precipitation to W. Cuba and South Florida while a sheared mess slides NNE along the decayed front.
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SHIPS seems to be on crack there IMO. The odds of this developing is low, forget turning into dangerous Hurricane Oscar (the Grouch).
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