ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Leslie depresses me looking at its sad little disorganized structure.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
hurricanes1234 wrote:Leslie depresses me looking at its sad little disorganized structure.
You should laugh like I am doing. Leslie encapsulates everything that is wrong with this season.
...LESLIE HESITATES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
That's a new one .
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
No offense anyone...but why bother to issue an intermediate advisory when it is clear that Leslie isn't moving or changing in wind speed? This system has been at 75 mph since yesterday afternoon. Of course, the possibility remains for Leslie to strengthen, but I do not see it passing 90 mph, simply because it's stuck in one place and continues to upwell colder waters, without moving. Guys, if this stays here for only around 12-18 hours more, cold upwelling will most likely take Leslie over. In other words, expect slight weakening to about 65 mph. Leslie, Leslie, Leslie. What is she doing here, when there are thousands of miles right around her of warmer water?
Well, at least Michael became a major hurricane.
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Well, at least Michael became a major hurricane.
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Re:
yzerfan wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if it's NHC policy to always have intermediate advisories when there's an active watch or warning in place. Looks like the first intermediate was issued in the cycle after the government of Bermuda issued a TS watch.
you are indeed correct--watches/warnings prompt intermediates for people in the path to keep better tabs on it and also to allow the NHC to pass things along if things suddenly change
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Leslie could turn out to be the perfect hurricane. No landfall, minimum affects to Bermuda. Wonderful ride able 7 to 9 footers along the OBX (yes, the ocean today was beautiful here, only to get better). A far cry from the cat 3 possibility just to the west of Bermuda from the prediction issued the other day, and a possible borderline major into Canada. To be honest, I wouldn't mind not having any more threats this year.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Leslie is looking ragged..looking at satellite pics,it Leslie SEEMS to be moving ever so slowly west That doesn't mean that it wont follow NHC prediction,,just that at this moment appears to be moving west.
^^^THE PRECEDING FORECAST WAS MADE BY A MAN THAT HAS NO KNOWLEDGE AT ALL OF HURRICANE BEHAVIOR> PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA RADIO FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST@@@@@
^^^THE PRECEDING FORECAST WAS MADE BY A MAN THAT HAS NO KNOWLEDGE AT ALL OF HURRICANE BEHAVIOR> PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA RADIO FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST@@@@@
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
rainstorm wrote:is everyone sick to death of watching leslie sit and spin? its killing the chance of anything else to develop.
Im not. It will move eventually, I think you should be happy we are at M when we were not expected to get past 9 or 10 NS
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Florida1118 wrote:rainstorm wrote:is everyone sick to death of watching leslie sit and spin? its killing the chance of anything else to develop.
Im not. It will move eventually, I think you should be happy we are at M when we were not expected to get past 9 or 10 NS
not at all. id much, much rather wish we were having a 1985 type season with the G storm, gloria, still 3 weeks away.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
rainstorm wrote:not at all. id much, much rather wish we were having a 1985 type season with the G storm, gloria, still 3 weeks away.
I'm really scratching my head over this. For me this is a very interesting season with storms forming that were not expected to form in conditions we all knew were more unfavorable than last year. In addition all the reliable models are developing the next wave off of Africa, which will give us something else to watch, and hope it doesn't hit anyone.
May all the storms either stay weak or look great and curve harmlessly out to sea.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
tolakram wrote:rainstorm wrote:not at all. id much, much rather wish we were having a 1985 type season with the G storm, gloria, still 3 weeks away.
I'm really scratching my head over this. For me this is a very interesting season with storms forming that were not expected to form in conditions we all knew were more unfavorable than last year. In addition all the reliable models are developing the next wave off of Africa, which will give us something else to watch, and hope it doesn't hit anyone.
May all the storms either stay weak or look great and curve harmlessly out to sea.
thats cool. however, im like the winter enthusiast who lives , lets say, in NYC. they dont get all that excited by seeing a blizzard in butte montana. actualy, that analogy isnt good. lets say the winter lover lives (weatherwise) for 3 months a year, dec-feb but in NYC its 10 degrees above normal those 3 months and snowless, like last year. i doubt they would get excited if i told them about all the blizzards that occured in omsk, russia.
Last edited by rainstorm on Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
rainstorm wrote:tolakram wrote:rainstorm wrote:not at all. id much, much rather wish we were having a 1985 type season with the G storm, gloria, still 3 weeks away.
I'm really scratching my head over this. For me this is a very interesting season with storms forming that were not expected to form in conditions we all knew were more unfavorable than last year. In addition all the reliable models are developing the next wave off of Africa, which will give us something else to watch, and hope it doesn't hit anyone.
May all the storms either stay weak or look great and curve harmlessly out to sea.
thats cool. however, im like the winter enthusiast who lives , lets say, in NYC. they dont get all that excited by seeing a blizzard in butte montana.
Winter weather can certainly be hazardous, but rarely does it destroy homes and leave thousands in shelters wondering if anything is left of their belongings. I don't think wishing for a snow storm is quite the same as wishing for a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Recon certainly isn't finding any hurricane force winds. Leslie's been in the same spot too long - lots of cool water upwelling. Peak winds may be in the 60-65 mph range, though average winds are probably closer to 50-55 mph.
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I cannot post live Recon now due to classes, but the most recent VDM supports a 55 kt intensity:
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
URNT12 KWBC 071344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122012
A. 07/13:15:26Z
B. 26 deg 37 min N
062 deg 10 min W
C. NA
D. 52 kt
E. 050 deg 77 nm
F. 126 deg 67 kt
G. 046 deg 81 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 13 C / 2388 m
J. 17 C / 2524 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / NA
O. 1 / 1
P. NOAA2 0212A LESLIE OB 20
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 12:44:04Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 54 KT SW QUAD 13:28:47Z
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
URNT12 KWBC 071344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122012
A. 07/13:15:26Z
B. 26 deg 37 min N
062 deg 10 min W
C. NA
D. 52 kt
E. 050 deg 77 nm
F. 126 deg 67 kt
G. 046 deg 81 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 13 C / 2388 m
J. 17 C / 2524 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / NA
O. 1 / 1
P. NOAA2 0212A LESLIE OB 20
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 12:44:04Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 54 KT SW QUAD 13:28:47Z
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Recon certainly isn't finding any hurricane force winds. Leslie's been in the same spot too long - lots of cool water upwelling. Peak winds may be in the 60-65 mph range, though average winds are probably closer to 50-55 mph.
it has the hollowed out appearance of sitting in one spot way too long. it is also suffering from the helicopter effect. if a helicopter hovers in one spot too long it will fall out of the sky.
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