ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthernBreeze]

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 62.5W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

copied from NOAA.gov

[bermudashorts]

Well here in Bermuda we now have really large swells. The ocean looks absolutely beautiful - huge waves rolling in and and a fantastic aquamarine colour and almost bubbling like a huge boiling pan of water. Nature at its best and amazing to think that a storm system 500 miles away can create this power. Having said that it would be nice if that's as strong as it gets - may have to move out of our house at the weekend if she strengthens and comes close!

[cycloneye]

The 11 AM track.

[crimi481]

Looks like more w, or wnw jogs last few frames

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 03 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-107

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 05/1800Z FIX
MISSION INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 63.3W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

[cycloneye]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON SEPTEMBER 03 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-107

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 05/1800Z FIX
MISSION INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE NEAR 27.0N 63.3W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

That was Monday's TCPOD. This is todays one.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT TUE 04 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-108


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
AT 06/1800Z NEAR 27.0N 62.8W.

[cpdaman]

best swell energy with this one is pointing to the NNW of leslie's center.

over 1000 miles away bouys 50 miles SE of nantucket and bouy 170 miles E of capecod are 5.6 and 6.2 ft at 14 seconds, (respectfully) already!

what a fetch that is pointed NNW toward Eastern SNE and the arcadia national park area over to the maritimes. 6 ft @ 14 sec is a very powerful wave !

[DukeDevil91]

Beginnings of a little convection blow up right around the LLC showing up on satellite.

[CrazyC83]

I think the central pressure is quite a bit lower than the NHC has it, since large storms tend to have lower pressures for their intensity. If the intensity is 55 kt (hard to say for sure), I would think the pressure would be closer to about 982mb.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[christchurchguy]

I think the central pressure is quite a bit lower than the NHC has it, since large storms tend to have lower pressures for their intensity. If the intensity is 55 kt (hard to say for sure), I would think the pressure would be closer to about 982mb.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the central pressure is quite a bit lower than the NHC has it, since large storms tend to have lower pressures for their intensity. If the intensity is 55 kt (hard to say for sure), I would think the pressure would be closer to about 982mb.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the ambient environmental pressure around the storm may be a bit higher than usual?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

WOCN31 CWHX 041745
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:01 PM ADT TUESDAY
4 SEPTEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= ATLANTIC PROVINCES.

FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY.

EARLY DISCUSSION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AND POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE IN EASTERN CANADA.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL BE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE THIS WEEK. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING LESLIE TO ONLY TRAVEL 500 KILOMETRES
IN 4 DAYS WHICH IS BASICALLY A PERSON'S AVERAGE SPEED OF WALKING.
WITH SUCH A SLOW SPEED OF TRAVEL AND THE FACT THAT THE STORM IS STILL
IN ITS ORGANIZING STAGE, THERE IS MUCH (MORE THAN USUAL) UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PREDICTED PATH/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT LESLIE COULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH
THE LARGE 'BERMUDA HIGH' AND ACELLERATE TOWARD EASTERN CANADA WITH A
RANGE OF TRACK SCENARIOS FROM MAINE TO OFFSHORE NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE MIDDLE OF THESE TRACK FORECASTS IS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND - BUT EVEN
THAT 'AVERAGE' WILL LIKELY SHIFT BY HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS OVER TIME
WITH EACH NEW RUN OF SIMULATIONS. IF LESLIE MAKES IT TO EASTERN
CANADA, IT WOULD NOT LIKELY DO SO UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL UPDATE THIS BULLETIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IF LESLIE CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND WILL PROVIDE INTERPRETATION OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
AND DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY.

VISIT http://WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (ALL IN LOWER
CASE) FOR THE LATEST HURRICANE TRACK MAP.

END/FOGARTY

[cycloneye]

Still no change in intensity on the 18z Best Track (55kts)

AL, 12, 2012090418, , BEST, 0, 251N, 626W, 55, 994, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Hurricane_Luis]

Beginnings of a little convection blow up right around the LLC showing up on satellite.

[SouthDadeFish]

Microwave shows a great low-level structure:

[floridasun78]

it look like LESLIE moving west a bit last few frame

[Buck]

Maybe this signals the end of Leslie's span as a terribly unstacked system.

[tolakram]

Latest

[fci]

WOCN31 CWHX 041745
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:01 PM ADT TUESDAY
4 SEPTEMBER 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
=NEW= ATLANTIC PROVINCES.

FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY.

EARLY DISCUSSION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AND POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE IN EASTERN CANADA.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL BE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE THIS WEEK. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING LESLIE TO ONLY TRAVEL 500 KILOMETRES
IN 4 DAYS WHICH IS BASICALLY A PERSON'S AVERAGE SPEED OF WALKING.
WITH SUCH A SLOW SPEED OF TRAVEL AND THE FACT THAT THE STORM IS STILL
IN ITS ORGANIZING STAGE, THERE IS MUCH (MORE THAN USUAL) UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PREDICTED PATH/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT LESLIE COULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH
THE LARGE 'BERMUDA HIGH' AND ACELLERATE TOWARD EASTERN CANADA WITH A
RANGE OF TRACK SCENARIOS FROM MAINE TO OFFSHORE NEWFOUNDLAND.
THE MIDDLE OF THESE TRACK FORECASTS IS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND - BUT EVEN
THAT 'AVERAGE' WILL LIKELY SHIFT BY HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS OVER TIME
WITH EACH NEW RUN OF SIMULATIONS. IF LESLIE MAKES IT TO EASTERN
CANADA, IT WOULD NOT LIKELY DO SO UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WE WILL UPDATE THIS BULLETIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IF LESLIE CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND WILL PROVIDE INTERPRETATION OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
AND DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY.

VISIT http://WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (ALL IN LOWER
CASE) FOR THE LATEST HURRICANE TRACK MAP.

END/FOGARTY

Great sense of humor!

[cycloneye]

5 PM Track.

[galaxy401]

I noticed for the past 24 hours, they keep saying shear should weaken in 36 hours.