#4 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:39 am
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6N
162.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 161.2E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) LOCATED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
030119Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 022233Z ASCAT PASS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 10-15 KNOT LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT GRADIENT
INDUCED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH A
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL AND THE MOST RECENT
021700Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION SHOWS ONLY COLD-CORE CHARACTERISTICS.
STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ARE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE COLD-CORE CHARACTERISTICS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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