ATL: LESLIE - Models
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Let's hope this whole east coast thing is just a quirky 12z trend...
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Yikes 2001,look at the Euro at 240 hours.
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- Riptide
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
It's a very real trend with major implications. All models are building a high pressure region northeast of Leslie. The main player is the strength of the upper-level trough in the Ohio Valley. Canada will likely be affected since Leslie is already too far west.
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- Extratropical94
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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
cycloneye wrote:Yikes 2001,look at the Euro at 240 hours.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif
Yeah that would be pretty bad for the Maritimes though I, being on the far western edge, would far far better than say Nova Scotia, including the largest city in the region Halifax, would.
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- meriland23
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Why is this shifting west now? Euro and cmc have it darn near NE states? Anyone find a NE hit plausable or does this seem ..fishy
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
The 0z GFS came 300 miles west of the 12z GFS, loving the consistency.
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- meriland23
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Riptide wrote:The 0z GFS came 300 miles west of the 12z GFS, loving the consistency.
Yup, saw that too.. NS hit darn near on this run. I am terrified of what the euro will show now. Euro loves its west trends. Scary thing is, Euro was right on Isaac way far out, we assumed it was too west at the time..
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Why is no one posting the model runs here?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Why is no one posting the model runs here?
0z GFS loop
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Thank you Meri and Rip. I don't know where to go and look for the runs elsewhere, so I can only rely on them being posted here.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Thank you Meri and Rip. I don't know where to go and look for the runs elsewhere, so I can only rely on them being posted here.
I use this website. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html
The latest (0z) GFS is pretty far east with Leslie, clipping Newfoundland on its' way towards the Arctic Circle.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Has the cutoff low over the OH valley been forecast on previous model runs?
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Wasn't paying a lot of attention, but I thought it was a trough before.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Wasn't paying a lot of attention, but I thought it was a trough before.
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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
GCANE wrote:Has the cutoff low over the OH valley been forecast on previous model runs?
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Wasn't paying a lot of attention, but I thought it was a trough before.
interesting local disco concerning that:
000
FXUS61 KCAR 041010
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012.....
.......LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE H5 TROUGH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
MAINE ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT ON THE DEPTH AND POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
TRAJECTORY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE LESLIE AND ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAY 7. REGARDLESS
OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF LESLIE...HEAVY SURF IS A DEFINITE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED RISKS TO
SAFETY FOR CITIZENS AND MARITIME PROPERTY......
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:GCANE wrote:Has the cutoff low over the OH valley been forecast on previous model runs?
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html
Wasn't paying a lot of attention, but I thought it was a trough before.
interesting local disco concerning that:
000
FXUS61 KCAR 041010
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2012.....
.......LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE H5 TROUGH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
MAINE ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT ON THE DEPTH AND POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL IMPACT THE
TRAJECTORY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE LESLIE AND ITS PROXIMITY TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAY 7. REGARDLESS
OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF LESLIE...HEAVY SURF IS A DEFINITE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED RISKS TO
SAFETY FOR CITIZENS AND MARITIME PROPERTY......
Thanks - it really caught my eye this morning since it looked close enough for the Fuji effect to kick in.
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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Some of the current model runs, such as the GFS & ECMWF, seem to be hinting at some type of interchange (perhaps even a trough phasing/merging) between Leslie and a cutoff low that forms along the coast. Looks like some interesting days ahead.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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