ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[somethingfunny]

It would be a rather unprecedented track for a storm to move NNW from Leslie's current position and hit New England. We've certainly got to keep our eyes on it because you never know when a storm finally will manage to do it, but while I've seen many storms try to hit New England from out near Bermuda, I've never seen one manage to do it.

Now, Canada... Canada has got to watch Leslie very closely because it could be a big storm impacting them.

[SouthernBreeze]

I know this is off-topic of Leslie, but on the above histtorical storm map, which storm was the one that skimmed up at Ct 3-4 along NC Coast? THANKS!

[ozonepete]

Center almost fully tucked into convection? Because that convection is pretty violent, once the center is embedded within it, it has a higher possibility of becoming a hurricane sooner than expected.

Nope. Most of the convection is still well southeast of the LLC. Shear still looks strong from the satellite loops and models seem to be handling it well, which means we probably should trust them that it will be another 24-36 hours before the shear truly eases off.

[jrfitz06]

I believe that was hurricane Helene in 1958

[brunota2003]

I believe that was hurricane Helene in 1958

Down to the letter:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19588.asp

[CrazyC83]

20120903 2345 24.0 62.9 T3.5/3.5 12L LESLIE

Highest in a while, supports 55 kt.

[ozonepete]

Does anyone else see a fair amount of westward drift with Leslie's LLC? If this continues the track will have to be shifted even further westward.

[cycloneye]

Crazy,00z Best Track stays at 50kts.

AL, 12, 2012090400, , BEST, 0, 240N, 631W, 50, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Riptide]

Does anyone else see a fair amount of westward drift with Leslie's LLC? If this continues the track will have to be shifted even further westward.

I can barely see it on the shortwave IR loop, it's definitely not moving east. Although convection is getting blown away again by shear.

[kat61]

I know this is off-topic of Leslie, but on the above histtorical storm map, which storm was the one that skimmed up at Ct 3-4 along NC Coast? THANKS!

Hazel ? 1954ish? I that that was a cat 3 aat lanfall?

[kat61]

I know this is off-topic of Leslie, but on the above histtorical storm map, which storm was the one that skimmed up at Ct 3-4 along NC Coast? THANKS!

Hazel ? 1954ish? I that that was a cat 3 aat lanfall?

sorry I THINK that was a cat 3 at landfall...

[SouthernBreeze]

Thanks Everyone - jrfitz06 & brunota2003 answered ithat Cat 4 NC storm correct as Helene in 1958 - THAT'S why I missed it - I was only 1 yr old then!

[OuterBanker]

Euro is rather nuts. Has Leslie as a rare New England hit. Could be, at least none of the models bring it back to 75 w. Euro does bring it to 70 before heading north though. It already will have an affect on the beaches along the east coast. Of course the more west it goes the more of an effect it will have. I have a sister in law named Leslie, I still can't figue her or her sister (my wife) out after 34 years of knowing them. So I won't even guess at this one

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quick Leslie forecast, landfall probs. Either Very Low, Low, Possible, or Likely.

CT or West: Very Low
RI/MA: Low
MA: Low
Canada: Possible
Bermuda: Likely [effects]

[HurrMark]

I don't see the Euro have a NE landfall...it has landfall in the Canadian Maritimes.

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

So if Leslie does in fact affect Canada, will it be extra tropical?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

So if Leslie does in fact affect Canada, will it be extra tropical?

It'll likely at least be transitioning, historically only 25% of tropical cyclones are still warm core systems when they leave this region. Still certain storm, like Hurricane Luis in 1995 which didn't become fully extratropical until off southern Greenland, have remained mainly tropical in characteristics while incredibly far north.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[greenkat]

So if Leslie does in fact affect Canada, will it be extra tropical?

Probably too early to tell, we'll need to wait to see what the models do when she stops stalling.
The only (major) difference between tropical systems and nontropical ones is that nontropical ones have reduced thunderstorm activity.

[cycloneye]

Fresh ASCAT shows an elongated center.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Fresh ASCAT shows an elongated center.

http://oi46.tinypic.com/qxkmqx.jpg

Does that mean it's weakening?