ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#781 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:06 pm

It would be a rather unprecedented track for a storm to move NNW from Leslie's current position and hit New England. We've certainly got to keep our eyes on it because you never know when a storm finally will manage to do it, but while I've seen many storms try to hit New England from out near Bermuda, I've never seen one manage to do it.

Now, Canada... Canada has got to watch Leslie very closely because it could be a big storm impacting them.

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#782 Postby SouthernBreeze » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:15 pm

I know this is off-topic of Leslie, but on the above histtorical storm map, which storm was the one that skimmed up at Ct 3-4 along NC Coast? THANKS!
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#783 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:28 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Center almost fully tucked into convection? Because that convection is pretty violent, once the center is embedded within it, it has a higher possibility of becoming a hurricane sooner than expected.


Nope. Most of the convection is still well southeast of the LLC. Shear still looks strong from the satellite loops and models seem to be handling it well, which means we probably should trust them that it will be another 24-36 hours before the shear truly eases off.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#784 Postby jrfitz06 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:30 pm

I believe that was hurricane Helene in 1958
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#785 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:35 pm

jrfitz06 wrote:I believe that was hurricane Helene in 1958


Down to the letter:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19588.asp
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#786 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:41 pm

20120903 2345 24.0 62.9 T3.5/3.5 12L LESLIE

Highest in a while, supports 55 kt.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#787 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:46 pm

Does anyone else see a fair amount of westward drift with Leslie's LLC? If this continues the track will have to be shifted even further westward.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#788 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:47 pm

Crazy,00z Best Track stays at 50kts.

AL, 12, 2012090400, , BEST, 0, 240N, 631W, 50, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#789 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:55 pm

ozonepete wrote:Does anyone else see a fair amount of westward drift with Leslie's LLC? If this continues the track will have to be shifted even further westward.

I can barely see it on the shortwave IR loop, it's definitely not moving east. Although convection is getting blown away again by shear.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#790 Postby kat61 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:16 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:I know this is off-topic of Leslie, but on the above histtorical storm map, which storm was the one that skimmed up at Ct 3-4 along NC Coast? THANKS!



Hazel ? 1954ish? I that that was a cat 3 aat lanfall?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#791 Postby kat61 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:20 pm

kat61 wrote:
SouthernBreeze wrote:I know this is off-topic of Leslie, but on the above histtorical storm map, which storm was the one that skimmed up at Ct 3-4 along NC Coast? THANKS!



Hazel ? 1954ish? I that that was a cat 3 aat lanfall?

sorry I THINK that was a cat 3 at landfall...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#792 Postby SouthernBreeze » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:31 pm

Thanks Everyone - jrfitz06 & brunota2003 answered ithat Cat 4 NC storm correct as Helene in 1958 - THAT'S why I missed it - I was only 1 yr old then! :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#793 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:34 pm

Euro is rather nuts. Has Leslie as a rare New England hit. Could be, at least none of the models bring it back to 75 w. Euro does bring it to 70 before heading north though. It already will have an affect on the beaches along the east coast. Of course the more west it goes the more of an effect it will have. I have a sister in law named Leslie, I still can't figue her or her sister (my wife) out after 34 years of knowing them. So I won't even guess at this one
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#794 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:45 pm

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Quick Leslie forecast, landfall probs. Either Very Low, Low, Possible, or Likely.

CT or West: Very Low
RI/MA: Low
MA: Low
Canada: Possible
Bermuda: Likely [effects]
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#795 Postby HurrMark » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:46 pm

I don't see the Euro have a NE landfall...it has landfall in the Canadian Maritimes.
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#796 Postby OzCycloneChaserTrav » Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:50 pm

So if Leslie does in fact affect Canada, will it be extra tropical?
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Re:

#797 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:02 pm

OzCycloneChaserTrav wrote:So if Leslie does in fact affect Canada, will it be extra tropical?


It'll likely at least be transitioning, historically only 25% of tropical cyclones are still warm core systems when they leave this region. Still certain storm, like Hurricane Luis in 1995 which didn't become fully extratropical until off southern Greenland, have remained mainly tropical in characteristics while incredibly far north.

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Re:

#798 Postby greenkat » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:23 pm

OzCycloneChaserTrav wrote:So if Leslie does in fact affect Canada, will it be extra tropical?


Probably too early to tell, we'll need to wait to see what the models do when she stops stalling.
The only (major) difference between tropical systems and nontropical ones is that nontropical ones have reduced thunderstorm activity.
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Hope this helped ;)

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#799 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:39 pm

Fresh ASCAT shows an elongated center.

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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#800 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Fresh ASCAT shows an elongated center.

http://oi46.tinypic.com/qxkmqx.jpg


Does that mean it's weakening?
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