ATL: LESLIE - Models
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
[/quote]....steering might be in place to push Leslie on a more westward track and quite potentially impact any point from Florida to the Carolina Outer Banks. Should Leslie gain more latitude during the next 48-72 hours only to be caught or stuck in a COL a bit farther north, than I would assume the storm to eventually recurve ahead of the next eventual short wave[/quote]
As an afterthought, it would seem that if greater weight were attributed to the historically accurate EURO model, than there would seem to be much less of a threat to the U.S. Seaboard given the higher latitude that Leslie is forecasted to be at. On the other hand, the GFS has seemingly been more accurate this season and I would be that much more unsettled if tonights 0Z GFS indicates any south and west shift in Leslie's near term forecast.
As an afterthought, it would seem that if greater weight were attributed to the historically accurate EURO model, than there would seem to be much less of a threat to the U.S. Seaboard given the higher latitude that Leslie is forecasted to be at. On the other hand, the GFS has seemingly been more accurate this season and I would be that much more unsettled if tonights 0Z GFS indicates any south and west shift in Leslie's near term forecast.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
....steering might be in place to push Leslie on a more westward track and quite potentially impact any point from Florida to the Carolina Outer Banks. Should Leslie gain more latitude during the next 48-72 hours only to be caught or stuck in a COL a bit farther north, than I would assume the storm to eventually recurve ahead of the next eventual short wave[/quote]chaser1 wrote:
As an afterthought, it would seem that if greater weight were attributed to the historically accurate EURO model, than there would seem to be much less of a threat to the U.S. Seaboard given the higher latitude that Leslie is forecasted to be at. On the other hand, the GFS has seemingly been more accurate this season and I would be that much more unsettled if tonights 0Z GFS indicates any south and west shift in Leslie's near term forecast.[/quote]
What would this mean for the Lesser Antilles/ Puerto Rico?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
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Well, in all likelihood I would imagine that either way impacts to Puerto Rico would be minimal. The north coast will likely experience some significant swells generated by the northerly flow from Leslie when the storm is north of the island. My only concern is that a somewhat more westward track might cause the storm to be just west enough ( and below 24N ) to potentially be south of a building mid level ridge that might push the storm towards the U.S. Eastern seaboard. The only circumstances where I could see a greater impact to Puerto Rico would neccessite a significant weakening of the storm overnight and tomm. caused by upper level shear and thus allowing the storm to move more westward in the short term. Right now Leslie appears to be slowly getting more organized and has recently appeared to "stairstep" a bit more to the north. Looks like Leslie is starting to get a bit more with the program and starting to follow NHC's track
I think Puerto Rico will come out fine with this storm and not likely be affected. .
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Well, in all likelihood I would imagine that either way impacts to Puerto Rico would be minimal. The north coast will likely experience some significant swells generated by the northerly flow from Leslie when the storm is north of the island. My only concern is that a somewhat more westward track might cause the storm to be just west enough ( and below 24N ) to potentially be south of a building mid level ridge that might push the storm towards the U.S. Eastern seaboard. The only circumstances where I could see a greater impact to Puerto Rico would neccessite a significant weakening of the storm overnight and tomm. caused by upper level shear and thus allowing the storm to move more westward in the short term. Right now Leslie appears to be slowly getting more organized and has recently appeared to "stairstep" a bit more to the north. Looks like Leslie is starting to get a bit more with the program and starting to follow NHC's track
I think Puerto Rico will come out fine with this storm and not likely be affected. .
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added disclaimer
Reason: added disclaimer
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
chaser1 wrote:Therefore the way I see it, depending on the timing of things.... should Leslie continue to fight shear in the near term and thus be less impacted by the existing weakness to her north and perhaps maintain an increased forward speed and continue a 285 (or less) heading for the next 48-72 hours, than I believe the steering might be in place to push Leslie on a more westward track and quite potentially impact any point from Florida to the Carolina Outer Banks. [/color]
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Taking model runs as well as climo into account, I'm going with only about a 3% chance for a SC hit and a mere 1% for a GA or FL hit since there's no ridge progged that would impart enough westward steering to get it to those three states. These numbers are based on climo and my study of hundreds of actual tracks. Compare this to last years's Irene, which was progged on every GFS run from twelve days and every Euro run from eight days out to hit the U.S.
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Aug 31, 2012 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Reason: added disclaimer
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Hey folks,
the disclaimer is not optional when making a prediction, please remember to add it. You can also put the disclaimer in your signature so you won't have to worry about forgetting.
Thanks.
the disclaimer is not optional when making a prediction, please remember to add it. You can also put the disclaimer in your signature so you won't have to worry about forgetting.
Thanks.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Jevo wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:What is that moving over Florida shown on the GFS?
Heh... reminants of Isaac? I didnt see this run shoot it out yet like the past runs have
Seems like several runs have Isaac, or what's left of him; making a return engagement to Florida. Didn't Ivan do that several years ago?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
fci wrote:Jevo wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:What is that moving over Florida shown on the GFS?
Heh... reminants of Isaac? I didnt see this run shoot it out yet like the past runs have
Seems like several runs have Isaac, or what's left of him; making a return engagement to Florida. Didn't Ivan do that several years ago?
Yes in 2004 right between Frances and Jeanne!
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0z GFS Initialized
0z GFS +24
0z GFS +48
0z GFS +24
0z GFS +48
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
0z GFS +72
0z GFS +96
0z GFS +120
0z GFS +96
0z GFS +120
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
0z GFS +144
0z GFS +168
0z GFS +168
Last edited by Jevo on Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
The GFS is creating phantom lows again, this run will not threaten any land areas.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
fci wrote:Jevo wrote:Bocadude85 wrote:What is that moving over Florida shown on the GFS?
Heh... reminants of Isaac? I didnt see this run shoot it out yet like the past runs have
Seems like several runs have Isaac, or what's left of him; making a return engagement to Florida. Didn't Ivan do that several years ago?
Yeah it was the ghost of Ivan...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
0z GFS +192
0z GFS +216
0z GFS +216
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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0z GFS +240
0z GFS +264
0z GFS +288
0z GFS +264
0z GFS +288
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
tolakram wrote:Hey folks,
the disclaimer is not optional when making a prediction, please remember to add it. You can also put the disclaimer in your signature so you won't have to worry about forgetting.
Thanks.
This is a test.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
I'm almost certain I saw another admin state that putting the disclaimer in your signature won't do (or words to that effect) because it must precede the post. Plus its text states (in part) "The following ..." which wouldn't make any sense in a signature. I've seen lots of members putting the unedited disclaimer either in their signature or just at the end of their posts.tolakram wrote:Hey folks,
the disclaimer is not optional when making a prediction, please remember to add it. You can also put the disclaimer in your signature so you won't have to worry about forgetting.
Thanks.
EDIT: My bad. I just realized that the disclaimer doesn't state what I thought it did.
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Re:
rainstorm wrote:season may be ending early based on the models
Check the "Global Models Runs Discussion thread" at Talking Tropics forum.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&p=2272987#p2272987
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