ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

i think to early to know if Bermuda going see LESLIE

[jedsshed]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hey Jimsot....My guess is that we'll get wet around Monday, but that should be about it.

[ozonepete]

Looks to be intensifying rapidly again. Not necessarily RI, but clearly the shear died out again and there's a huge burst of convection right over the center. Nice banding and good outflow developing.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 311615.jpg

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... 311615.jpg

I have to disagree, it looks like the center is about to be exposed shortly

Yeah, I see what you're saying now. Looked like center was tucking under but you can still see a good part of the LLC on the NE side of the convection.

[redneck51]

I have a question.
do you guys agree with these models?
or do you think the Northern islands could be in more of a threat area?
I am concerned that maybe Leslie won't recurve as as NHC says
any comments would be most helpful.
Thanks

Listen to professionals with a proven track record like Wxman57 and of course the NHC pros. They say Leslie will stay away from the NE islands.

[ozonepete]

Hi - am new to this site and first time poster on this forum. Has anyone any opinions on how close Leslie will pass to Bermuda and also when the closest point will be. Fully appreciate that at this stage it's early to make accurate predictions.

It's just too early. It's forecast to slow down hundreds of miles before Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday. The computer models can't be relied on to tell accurately what it will do beyond that time. You just have to check back periodically. By Sunday they should have a better handle on it.

Oh, and WELCOME!

[Frank2]

Uh-oh - per the TWC it seems Leslie is doing things that were not expected (despite the recent burst of convection) - similar to Isaac, it might defy the forecasts and become one of those erratic systems that are very hard to predict...

Interestingly, the current and forecast track are similar to Andrew (1992)...

Frank

[bermudashorts]

Thanks for the replies and welcome - will keep checking

[Annie Oakley]

Thanks for the replies and welcome - will keep checking

Hi Bermudashorts-I have to say I LOVE your name lol!

[edurican]

Where is this system's center? Is it possible that Leslie might shift even more to the west? Been checking out the forums for a long time now, finally decided to register

[TheBurn]

17:00 UTC RGB / Natural Color
Leslie kind of has some decent size to her, doesn't she?

[otowntiger]

Uh-oh - per the TWC it seems Leslie is doing things that were not expected (despite the recent burst of convection) - similar to Isaac, it might defy the forecasts and become one of those erratic systems that are very hard to predict...

Interestingly, the current and forecast track are similar to Andrew (1992)...

Frank

When you say the forecast track are similar to Andrew I assume you mean that at this point Andrew was also forecast to re-curve in a similar manner or are you saying the forecast currently for leslie has her doing what Andrew ultimately did? Thanks! I've always appreciated your frank (no pun intended) observations on this board.

[ozonepete]

Where is this system's center? Is it possible that Leslie might shift even more to the west? Been checking out the forums for a long time now, finally decided to register

Hi! Welcome! Leslie has moved west of its 11AM location. The NHC will update it at 5PM later today, and someone here will be posting that, plus possibly intermediate location estimates before then.

Current info from the NHC is located here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[ozonepete]

Looks like the center is elongated SW to NE and there are two LLCs, one under the convective flareup and the other on the northeastern edge of it. In other words, we have another disorganized system again.

[SFLcane]

Uh-oh - per the TWC it seems Leslie is doing things that were not expected (despite the recent burst of convection) - similar to Isaac, it might defy the forecasts and become one of those erratic systems that are very hard to predict...

Interestingly, the current and forecast track are similar to Andrew (1992)...
Frank

Again anything is possible in the world of weather but there remains a unanimous agreement by models for a sharp recurve near or around 60W for this thing. In terms of threat if i were in bermuda i'd be watching this one closely. Just dont see anything that would drive this on westerly course towards florida.

[edurican]

Where is this system's center? Is it possible that Leslie might shift even more to the west? Been checking out the forums for a long time now, finally decided to register

Hi! Welcome! Leslie has moved west of its 11AM location. The NHC will update it at 5PM later today, and someone here will be posting that, plus possibly intermediate location estimates before then.

Current info from the NHC is located here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Thanks! I've been looking at the projected paths during the past days and the storm keeps taking a westward movement. I guess the question is not if, but when it will shift to a northwestern direction. As someone from PR, I see this extremely close to us!

[ozonepete]

Where is this system's center? Is it possible that Leslie might shift even more to the west? Been checking out the forums for a long time now, finally decided to register

Hi! Welcome! Leslie has moved west of its 11AM location. The NHC will update it at 5PM later today, and someone here will be posting that, plus possibly intermediate location estimates before then.

Current info from the NHC is located here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Thanks! I've been looking at the projected paths during the past days and the storm keeps taking a westward movement. I guess the question is not if, but when it will shift to a northwestern direction. As someone from PR, I see this extremely close to us!

You're welcome! Supposed to be a gradual turn to the northwest and the official forecast as of 11AM still really doesn't take it very close to PR from what I can see. But it's early still to be sure of anything with the track. Keep watching.

[JamesCaneTracker]

Uh-oh - per the TWC it seems Leslie is doing things that were not expected (despite the recent burst of convection) - similar to Isaac, it might defy the forecasts and become one of those erratic systems that are very hard to predict...

Interestingly, the current and forecast track are similar to Andrew (1992)...
Frank

Again anything is possible in the world of weather but there remains a unanimous agreement by models for a sharp recurve near or around 60W for this thing. In terms of threat if i were in bermuda i'd be watching this one closely. Just dont see anything that would drive this on westerly course towards florida.

Only 5 of the Early Cycle Models show a clear Recurve... All the others send it back west to varying degrees... This is far from a clear recurve setup. Timing, strength, and speed (which plays in with Timing) will all dictate the future of Leslie.

[Annie Oakley]

17:00 UTC RGB / Natural Color
Leslie kind of has some decent size to her, doesn't she?

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/1323/euzlk6f7gbffd.jpg

Spectacular The Burn.....

and today is a 'Blue Moon'....for Neil Armstrong.


*edited by southerngale to remove the IMG tags from quote

[Airboy]

Will a slower speed mean that it could move more west?

[sandyb]

I know its to early to tell but everyone keeps talking about Florida what about NC anyones thoughts on what you think of it getting into our coast or close?