ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_box
Leslie track inching towards the Hebert Box mark of 20/60. All Major SFL hurricanes, except for Andrew, that have landfalled in SFL from the east passed through the Hebert Box.
IMO, the day 4/5 points show uncertainity b/c of the weak steering and if that track begins to bend back west starting today Leslie could be a potential CONUS problem. If the Leslie track still shows recurve out to sea after today, then my confidence in a recurve is much higher. Todays model runs will be within 72 hours of the critical recurve or ridge building position, so we should get a higher confidence after today.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[rainstorm]

i think the big key in the end is where isaacs remains end up. models had shown a northern track for isaac and out to see off the NE coast. now they have it diving SE and off ga/fla.

[cycloneye]

Is moving along the NHC track this morning as the center is under the ball of convection that is to the NE of the other convection.

[LarryWx]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_box
Leslie track inching towards the Hebert Box mark of 20/60. All Major SFL hurricanes, except for Andrew, that have landfalled in SFL from the east passed through the Hebert Box.
IMO, the day 4/5 points show uncertainity b/c of the weak steering and if that track begins to bend back west starting today Leslie be a potential CONUS problem. If the Leslie track still shows recurve out to sea after today, then my confidence in a recurve is much higher. Todays model runs will be within 72 hours of the critical recurve or ridge building position, so we should get a higher confidence after today.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It is not at all realistic in my mind that FL, GA, or lower SC can be hit by Leslie. There's absolutely nothing projected to steer it that way. I'm giving it about a 20% chance to hit anywhere from fom the NC Outer Banks to mainly the NE US. I raised this from 5% in deference to the model runs that tease or hit New England. Regardless, I don't see any reason to worry about it at all if you live Charleston south to FL. Actually, it looks less threatening than average for early Sep. for the SE from CHS south.

[rainstorm]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_box
Leslie track inching towards the Hebert Box mark of 20/60. All Major SFL hurricanes, except for Andrew, that have landfalled in SFL from the east passed through the Hebert Box.
IMO, the day 4/5 points show uncertainity b/c of the weak steering and if that track begins to bend back west starting today Leslie be a potential CONUS problem. If the Leslie track still shows recurve out to sea after today, then my confidence in a recurve is much higher. Todays model runs will be within 72 hours of the critical recurve or ridge building position, so we should get a higher confidence after today.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It is not at all realistic in my mind that FL, GA, or lower SC can be hit by Leslie. There's absolutely nothing projected to steer it that way. I'm giving it about a 20% chance to hit anywhere from fom the NC Outer Banks to mainly the NE US. I raised this from 5% in deference to the model runs that tease or hit New England. Regardless, I don't see any reason to worry about it at all if you live Charleston south to FL. Actually, it looks less threatening than average for early Sep. for the SE from CHS south.

20% is pretty high for any storm at 15n50w. i think if it does hit it will be similar to an isabel type track, though maybe further north.

[rainstorm]

maybe this should be in a separate thread, but even if leslie recurves i wouldnt be surprised to see a storm off florida.

[wxman57]

One thing to remember about the "Hebert Box" is that it is not a predictor of where a hurricane may track (Florida). That is, just because a storm may move through the box doesn't mean a high chance of a Florida hit. However, if a storm DOES NOT move through the box then it does suggest a Florida hit is unlikely. Many storms track through the Hebert Box and never hit Florida, perhaps even a majority of them. In this case, Leslie may well clip the Hebert Box but there is nothing to suggest a Florida hit presently.

[LarryWx]

One thing to remember about the "Hebert Box" is that it is not a predictor of where a hurricane may track (Florida). That is, just because a storm may move through the box doesn't mean a high chance of a Florida hit. However, if a storm DOES NOT move through the box then it does suggest a Florida hit is unlikely. Many storms track through the Hebert Box and never hit Florida, perhaps even a majority of them. In this case, Leslie may well clip the Hebert Box but there is nothing to suggest a Florida hit presently.

Indeed. Last season, alone, there were FOUR that went through the Hebert Box and NONE of them hit FL or were even wihin 100 miles of FL. The closest was Emily, which missed by just over 100 miles. Irene missed by ~200, Maria missed by ~600, and Ophelia missed by ~1,000 miles. Leslie, which may barely travel through the extreme NE corner of the box, is looking like to be a big miss like Maria or even Ophelia.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I'm watching Leslie, if she curves at 75+W, I'm in Trouble. If she starts moving at 300 at 70W, I'm also in trouble.

[LarryWx]

One thing to remember about the "Hebert Box" is that it is not a predictor of where a hurricane may track (Florida). That is, just because a storm may move through the box doesn't mean a high chance of a Florida hit. However, if a storm DOES NOT move through the box then it does suggest a Florida hit is unlikely. Many storms track through the Hebert Box and never hit Florida, perhaps even a majority of them. In this case, Leslie may well clip the Hebert Box but there is nothing to suggest a Florida hit presently.

Indeed. Last season, alone, there were FOUR that went through the Hebert Box and NONE of them hit FL or were even wihin 100 miles of FL. The closest was Emily, which missed by just over 100 miles. Irene missed by ~200, Maria missed by ~600, and Ophelia missed by ~1,000 miles. Leslie, which may barely travel through the extreme NE corner of the box, is looking like to be a big miss like Maria or even Ophelia.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

To further make 57's point, I had to go all the way back to 2004 to find the last TC traversing the Hebert Box that then hit FL: Frances and Jeanne. From 2005 through 2011, 15 did just that and didn't hit FL: 4 in 2011, 4 in 2010, 2 in 2009, 1 in 2008 (although this one, Omar, was moving NE), 3 in 2007, and 1 in 2006. So, of the last 17, only 2 (12%) hit FL.

[Blown Away]

One thing to remember about the "Hebert Box" is that it is not a predictor of where a hurricane may track (Florida). That is, just because a storm may move through the box doesn't mean a high chance of a Florida hit. However, if a storm DOES NOT move through the box then it does suggest a Florida hit is unlikely. Many storms track through the Hebert Box and never hit Florida, perhaps even a majority of them. In this case, Leslie may well clip the Hebert Box but there is nothing to suggest a Florida hit presently.

Indeed. Last season, alone, there were FOUR that went through the Hebert Box and NONE of them hit FL or were even wihin 100 miles of FL. The closest was Emily, which missed by just over 100 miles. Irene missed by ~200, Maria missed by ~600, and Ophelia missed by ~1,000 miles. Leslie, which may barely travel through the extreme NE corner of the box, is looking like to be a big miss like Maria or even Ophelia.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I did say all major hurricanes that landfalled in SFL from the east, except for Andrew, passed through the box. Most storms that pass through the Hebert box never hit the CONUS, but if a major hurricane landfalls in SFL, very likely it will have passed through the box.

[Blown Away]

All classified storms within 50 miles of Leslie's current location. WOW, many very significant impacts on the CONUS from this position.

[LarryWx]

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/2323/leslie3.jpg

All classified storms within 50 miles of Leslie's current location. WOW, many very significant impacts on the CONUS from this position.

The vast majority of those that tracked to the SE US would have had at least some semblance of a Bermudaish or western Atlantic high that would impart a decent westerly component of motion below it to get it to the SE US from the current Leslie position. There's nothing like that even projected for anytime soon. It is almost the opposite situation, which is pretty unusual and a bummer if you want more SE excitement coming in from the east. For those that want more excitement, put the guns down. I'm just a messenger.

[wxman57]

I did say all major hurricanes that landfalled in SFL from the east, except for Andrew, passed through the box. Most storms that pass through the Hebert box never hit the CONUS, but if a major hurricane landfalls in SFL, very likely it will have passed through the box.

That's the correct way to interpret it.

[Blown Away]

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/2323/leslie3.jpg[/img]

All classified storms within 50 miles of Leslie's current location. WOW, many very significant impacts on the CONUS from this position.

The vast majority of those that tracked to the SE US would have had at least some semblance of a Bermudaish or western Atlantic high that would impart a decent westerly component of motion below it to get it to the SE US from the current Leslie position. There's nothing like that even projected for anytime soon. It is almost the opposite situation, which is pretty unusual and a bummer if you want more SE excitement coming in from the east. For those that want more excitement, put the guns down. I'm just a messenger.

I agree that vast majority of hurricanes in the open Atlantic never hit the CONUS, so the odds are always going to favor no CONUS landfall for a system in the open Atlantic. Leslie's current location is a spot that produced many more CONUS strikes than other locations east of 60W. The odds are still very low for a CONUS strike, but a little higher for Leslie's location based on historical tracks only. The NHC is showing recurve and that is the likely track for Leslie.

[tolakram]

Latest

[expat2carib]

Tracking Leslie from an island within the Hebert box I would appreciate it if we could stick to Leslie. As you can see on the spaghetti picture above. Even when they didn't hit FL/CONUS/Bermuda/ they had an impact on the lesser Antilles .

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Per the Euro and GFS there will be a very deep trough coming off the east coast of the U.S. at about 200 hours that will almost certainly take Leslie out to the north and northeast no matter where she is. Whether it is a threat to any east coast areas or Bermuda would depend on where Leslie ends up in the rather weak steering enviorment that will exist in the proceeding days.

Just the opinion of an amateur.

[Blown Away]

Tracking Leslie from an island within the Hebert box I would appreciate it if we could stick to Leslie. As you can see on the spaghetti picture above. Even when they didn't hit FL/CONUS/Bermuda/ they had an impact on the lesser Antilles .

Nothing in my comments suggests the islands are being ignored and even w/ the spaghetti plot the vast majority of those plots never touched land, including the islands!

[expat2carib]

Tracking Leslie from an island within the Hebert box I would appreciate it if we could stick to Leslie. As you can see on the spaghetti picture above. Even when they didn't hit FL/CONUS/Bermuda/ they had an impact on the lesser Antilles .

Nothing in my comments suggests the islands are being ignored and even w/ the spaghetti plot the vast majority of those plots never touched land, including the islands!

No offence I should have said some kind of impact (swells outer bands and more..... ) I wish we could make a roundabout there were the traffic jam is on the spaghetti picture above

Back to Leslie..... 15 degrees north of due west is is not that much north......