ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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HarryPotter
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#341 Postby HarryPotter » Thu Aug 30, 2012 5:55 pm

Yeah... I'm in Connecticut... I'm watching Leslie... The Euro has me concerned, but then again...10 days away, a lot can change. My bet is on a fish storm, but better prepared...
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#342 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:24 pm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Enough on this. Already showing Weatherbell subscribers why there could be hurricane threat on east coast based on pattern in 10 days. i assume he is referring to leslie.
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#343 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:33 pm

still NW to nnw at the buoy pressure still falling at 1005mb probably close to 1003 in the center maybe lower. Also still no turn. due west
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#344 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:33 pm

Looking very nice. Probably up to 50 mph/60 mph at 11pm EDT.

Image
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Re:

#345 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:46 pm

rainstorm wrote:Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Enough on this. Already showing Weatherbell subscribers why there could be hurricane threat on east coast based on pattern in 10 days. i assume he is referring to leslie.


Dont think he is thinking in terms of kirk or leslie but possibly the wave about to move of the african coast.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#346 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:46 pm

Just looking the the satellite frames...orginally was thinking, wow! Taking the turn, a fish! Then I carefully looked at the COC and it it obvious it is moving west or a few degrees north of west.
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#347 Postby alienstorm » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:54 pm

Joe Bastardi is referring to Issac and Leslie, Issac redeveloping off the mid-atlantic coast.
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#348 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:56 pm

ah, thats what he said on weatherbell?
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Re:

#349 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:56 pm

alienstorm wrote:Joe Bastardi is referring to Issac and Leslie, Issac redeveloping off the mid-atlantic coast.

So Leslie could hit the east coast...just curious and not being sarcastic...under what circumstances?
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#350 Postby alienstorm » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:57 pm

rainstorm wrote:ah, thats what he said on weatherbell?

Yes
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#351 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:59 pm

HarryPotter wrote:Yeah... I'm in Connecticut... I'm watching Leslie... The Euro has me concerned, but then again...10 days away, a lot can change. My bet is on a fish storm, but better prepared...

I'll be watching with you Harry Potter..afraid it it comes into the mid-Atlantic and New England, people may disregard its intensity, because Irene was originally forecasted to make landfall up here as a Cat2.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#352 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:03 pm

If this if upgraded to 50kts at 11...technically if it strengthens to 55 or 60kts by morning...it's RI.
Edit: I doubt it gets above 55kts...but you never know, and also making a point.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#353 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:13 pm

Cycloneye, do you see this moving WNW by morning...what are the chances it's moving below 280?
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Re: Re:

#354 Postby fasterdisaster » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:14 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:
alienstorm wrote:Joe Bastardi is referring to Issac and Leslie, Issac redeveloping off the mid-atlantic coast.

So Leslie could hit the east coast...just curious and not being sarcastic...under what circumstances?


I believe the thinking is that once Kirk heads north, the ridging will build back in 4-5 days out. Where Leslie goes from there is unclear.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#355 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:18 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Cycloneye, do you see this moving WNW by morning...what are the chances it's moving below 280?


Well,I am not a pro met. I am only guided by what the scientists at NHC tells us. I only can say that if Leslie reaches 50W and is south of 15N,then the extreme NE Leeward islands may get some weather from it in the form of some bands.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#356 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:35 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:If this if upgraded to 50kts at 11...technically if it strengthens to 55 or 60kts by morning...it's RI.
Edit: I doubt it gets above 55kts...but you never know, and also making a point.

Operationally, yes...but in the final analysis? Probably not...it probably was a TS before they named it, so that would mean it has intensified "less" than what operationally suggests.
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#357 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:37 pm

Fresh microwave:

Image
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#358 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:40 pm

Both the Euro and GFS now take Leslie to just south-East of my State, Maine, by the end of the Forecast run. You better believe this has my attention.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#359 Postby mulaman984 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:45 pm

What are the chances this thing does not turn and enters GOM? Is e NHC ever this wrong ?
Last edited by mulaman984 on Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#360 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:45 pm

00z Best Track

Up to 45kts.

AL, 12, 2012083100, , BEST, 0, 145N, 459W, 45, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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