ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

Buoy 41041 update
NNW winds sustained at 32mph
pressure 1008.5 and falling rapidly
winds have backed a little more to the N in the last hour...it may pass right over the buoy!

[ConvergenceZone]

.

I don't think the islands have a thing to worry about. WXMAN mentioned
for sure that they have Luis and company have nothing to worry about, and for him to say that shows how much confidence he and the NHC has regarding a recurve....
WXMAN wouldn't say that unless he was absolutely certain...
I don't think a question of it not recurving will even come up.....

None of this is my opinion, but it does show mucho how trust and respect I have in WXMAN and he's got great history in his credibility when it comes to forecasting recurves in the past.

.WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE. their not 100% sure of RECURVES

Yea, I think they need to say that though to cover themselves, kind of like
the health disclaimer you see on products, even if the chance is extremely small.

[cycloneye]

Buoy 41041 update
NNW winds sustained at 32mph
pressure 1008.5 and falling rapidly
winds have backed a little more to the N in the last hour...it may pass right over the buoy!

What is the exact location of the bouy? 18z Best Track has it at 14.2n-44.5w.

['CaneFreak]

If there is a half a degree latitude difference in positions based on two different sources, how in the world can you rely on models to initialize correctly and give you an accurate run?

Hey look at these numbers from SSD. Looks like Leslie is more south than previous position... and continues to race westard.

30/1745 UTC 13.7N 44.2W T2.5/2.5 LESLIE
30/1145 UTC 13.9N 42.5W T2.0/2.0 98L

18z Best Track up to 40kts

AL, 12, 2012083018, , BEST, 0, 142N, 445W, 40, 1004, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[x-y-no]

Buoy 41041 update
NNW winds sustained at 32mph
pressure 1008.5 and falling rapidly
winds have backed a little more to the N in the last hour...it may pass right over the buoy!

What is the exact location of the bouy? 18z Best Track has it at 14.2n-44.5w.

14.175 N 45.998 W (14°10'30" N 45°59'53" W)

We may get a direct hit ... fantastic luck if we do.

[jedsshed]

If Leslie is close to 15N when it gets to around 55W, I’m going to start worrying if “recurve” is still a topic of discussion!

[floridasun78]

alot poster from isaac in here now welcome aboard the train

[cycloneye]

LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 44.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 301846.txt

[SouthDadeFish]

As of 1850Z, our buoy says winds have swung back around to the N (350 degrees) and pressure is at 1008.4mb.

[Jimsot]

If Leslie is close to 15N when it gets to around 55W, I’m going to start worrying if “recurve” is still a topic of discussion!

That makes two of us.

[ozonepete]

As of 1850Z, our buoy says winds have swung back around to the N (350 degrees) and pressure is at 1008.4mb.

More evidence that the center is very likely going to go right over the buoy.

[drezee]

As of 1850Z, our buoy says winds have swung back around to the N (350 degrees) and pressure is at 1008.4mb.

1813z 1007.9 mb even lower..

[cpdaman]

i think in the last few hours the leslie has started WNW and has gotten even better organized. i think a few more hours of this motion and it will be clear. prolly on a 280-285 heading this evening (just a guess, and not an educated one at that)

[floridasun78]

so turn starting?

[jlauderdal]

we couldnt agree on a center location or direction when it was rounding key west and even yesterday when it was off new orleans..there sure isnt going to be agreement on this thing..

you have nothing to worry about

[Aric Dunn]

so turn starting?

no indications of that yet. the motion everyone sees is the convection building north. just have to look at the low level curvature and extrapolate.

['CaneFreak]

Correct. Which is why I always use RGB...follow the yellow clouds in the background...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

so turn starting?

no indications of that yet. the motion everyone sees is the convection building north. just have to look at the low level curvature and extrapolate.

[cpdaman]

so turn starting?

no indications of that yet. the motion everyone sees is the convection building north. just have to look at the low level curvature and extrapolate.

it is difficult to see the turn right when it starts
but i think it is even a tad more clear with the latest 1915 frame. but i'll wait to post more on this till we get the 1950 bouy reading just after 4pm .

[ozonepete]

Regardless of where this goes, it sure has incredible form now and looks to be intensifying really quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

so turn starting?

no indications of that yet. the motion everyone sees is the convection building north. just have to look at the low level curvature and extrapolate.

it is difficult to see the turn right when it starts
but i think it is even a tad more clear with the latest 1915 frame. but i'll wait to post more on this till we get the 1950 bouy reading just after 4pm .

I only see 265 to 270. thats just convection build north and wrapping around.