ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Anthysteg00]

Since the storm is fairly well inland now can I get some input on a thought I had....


I saw a fair bit of frustration and ill opinion of the NHC concerning Isaac last night when he stalled and wobbled around a bit. Can we now safely agree that the GFS and NAM were a bit off, and that the NHC deserved a fair bit more credit than they were given? The NHC nailed the general WNW-NW motion overall and did an absolutely fantastic job with this storm.

Although this is just an opinion, I think perhaps with amateur eyes we don't see long term concepts that the NHC picks up on, and we are too quick to judge their decisions. Yet again, NHC proved the amateurs wrong and showed exactly why they are the pros! I give them my tax money happily.


Anywho, back to isaac.

[wxwatcher1999]

Is it possible Isaac heads back south if he is blocked to the north?

[gboudx]

Who said Isaac is blocked to the north? I keep reading that here and I don't understand where it's coming from. The NHC said this in the last update:

ISAAC CONTINUES TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 310/5
KT...BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SLIDELL AND FT. POLK
LOUISIANA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
EVENTALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BY DAY 3 WHEN THE REMNANT CYCLONE IS
OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST.

I think some folks need to trust the pro's on this.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, it almost looks stalled in that radar loop...The flooding in New Orleans MAY potentially be historic when all is said and done...

Not likely. There's no flooding in New Orleans right now, or at least no widespread flooding. Katrina was historic, so if that's the comparison, this is not in the same ballpark.

perhaps I should have just said LA in General and not New Orleans..... Tons of flooding pictures all over the net I've been seeing, not Katrina size, but probably more extensive, and covering a larger area because the flooding is just getting starting according to the news due to the slow moving system.

[tolakram]

For those unfamiliar with it, take a ride on the track snake.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/gr ... p_5W.shtml

As you step through you can see the NHC accuracy is pretty typical, with landfall location being identified 3 days out, and the various direction changes being pretty well predicted a day before landfall.

[gboudx]

perhaps I should have just said LA in General and not New Orleans..... Tons of flooding pictures all over the net I've been seeing, not Katrina size, but probably more extensive, and covering a larger area because the flooding is just getting starting according to the news due to the slow moving system.

Ah, if New Orleans proper is excepted, then yes maybe. A lot of the same areas that are flooding now, also flooded for Ike. So that may be a good comparison to use. Juan from the 80's would be a good comparison as well.

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow, it almost looks stalled in that radar loop...The flooding in New Orleans MAY potentially be historic when all is said and done...

Not likely. There's no flooding in New Orleans right now, or at least no widespread flooding. Katrina was historic, so if that's the comparison, this is not in the same ballpark.

perhaps I should have just said LA in General and not New Orleans..... Tons of flooding pictures all over the net I've been seeing, not Katrina size, but probably more extensive, and covering a larger area because the flooding is just getting starting according to the news due to the slow moving system.

I agree. I've been listening all morning and looking at pictures. Many people are saying this was much worse for them (flood wise) than katrina, especially in Plaqerman's Parish. Even Billy Nungesser. Just depends on what part of the state you live in I guess.

[fasterdisaster]

I can't help but think some people got way more than they bargained for with a Category 1.

[Meteorcane]

Wow Arabi Louisiana (very close to where I lived for a time before Katrina) has gotten an unofficial report of 22.5 inches of rain. Also Shell Beach in Far East St.Bernard has had sustained tropical storm force winds for over 24 consecutive hours now.

[wxwatcher1999]

I don't know the educated words for it but can someone post the current upper air steering currents for Isaac please?

[cigtyme]

Is it possible Isaac heads back south if he is blocked to the north?


So you are asking if it is possible for me to put up with this for longer?

[thetraveler]

Who said Isaac is blocked to the north? I keep reading that here and I don't understand where it's coming from. The NHC said this in the last update:

ISAAC CONTINUES TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 310/5
KT...BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SLIDELL AND FT. POLK
LOUISIANA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
EVENTALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BY DAY 3 WHEN THE REMNANT CYCLONE IS
OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST.

I think some folks need to trust the pro's on this.

But GB, what would they then talk about? LOL.

[Incoming!]

I've never seen anything quite like this. What's the distance between where the eye made first land fall and where the center is now located?

[Hurricane_Luis]

I've never seen anything quite like this. What's the distance between where the eye made first land fall and where the center is now located?

On Google earth its 58 miles (93 Km), The center is at 30° 2'37.97"N, 90°58'7.36"W

[crimi481]

Unfortunately - I nailed this scary forecast track (I think)
Isaac making u-turn at the light?
Last few frames in this cool WV Loop - shows nicely the bulge in high pressure - n.w (and west) of storm
Isaac may go E. or N.E, or S.E.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

This post in this forum is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[dazie]

Unfortunately - I nailed this scary forecast track (I think)
Isaac making u-turn at the light?
Last few frames in this cool WV Loop - shows nicely the bulge in high pressure - n.w (and west) of storm
Isaac may go E. or N.E, or S.E.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

This post in this forum is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

Can you explain (in a weather for dummies type of way) why you believe this? And does anyone else think this??
South Mississippi here, and I am ready to be done with Isaac.

[mvtrucking]

Who said Isaac is blocked to the north? I keep reading that here and I don't understand where it's coming from. The NHC said this in the last update:

ISAAC CONTINUES TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 310/5
KT...BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SLIDELL AND FT. POLK
LOUISIANA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND
EVENTALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BY DAY 3 WHEN THE REMNANT CYCLONE IS
OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST.

I think some folks need to trust the pro's on this.

Absolutely. We have been watching the rain progress from the south & east(moving west) towards Monroe
and it is almost upon us. It has taken all day to get here but it is definitely moving northwest

[HeeBGBz]

Strongest winds I've seen so far and the heaviest rains. Sure doesn't seem to be winding down at all here in Biloxi.

[SunnyThoughts]

We feel so lucky here in the Fla Panhandle I can't even tell ya. I hope all of you guys affected are able to clean up and put this all behind you as soon as possible. Sending some sunny thoughts your way.

[underthwx]

yall be safe in the impact zone...hope Mr. Sun finds a way back soon...