ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pwrdog]

There is no doubt it's moving WNW since 7 pm and just north of due west in the last 2 hours..... It's been a while since it moved NW..

That's only going off the what the hurricane hunters have found..

[boomstyk]

Did TWC go off the air for everyone, or just me on Dish Network?

Off air at moment too...probably getting flogged for the "wobbling" comments...j/k. Radar def suggests W or even W/SW movement at moment.

LMAO

[Anthysteg00]

Not buying it...and i've seen storms do things like this before, wobble watching IMO. RECON proves it wobbled sure, but it also proved after the wobble it began the same general NW track the NHC expected it would do and instead of Isaac being slightly east of the forecast track, now it is slightly west. For the people of NOLA this is honestly just as bad if not worse because the east quad of the storm is likely the worst part.


You can't say it's "not a wobble" with any certainty with more RECON obs to confirm that, presently RECON appears to disagree with that notion, and evidence points more towards it being just a cyclonic loop that after correction, Isaac begins moving back towards the NW. Even assuming it does anything loop, Isaac will just loop himself into SE/Central LA. Just my honest opinion here folks.

[Texashawk]

OK, thanks everyone. I didn't think I was stupid, or it was a 'radar azimuth trick' either. I can read a radar!! Gold star for Steve!

[windnrain]

This has now become a trend.

Isaac is moving west.

This will be a coast hugger. Terrible.

[DukeDevil91]

So if this thing continues west or even wsw (direction in my opinion), is it possible it gets passed Houma longitudinally and sits in that area of water south of Lafayette for a few more hours?

[Texashawk]

I know they're quite busy right now, but I'd really love to hear a pro met opinion right about now.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah, SW movement again...and center becoming more circular...again.

[PauleinHouston]

[quote="tolakram"]Good grief, SW again.

No doubt...if it keeps that up, it will pull offshore nicely...hmmmmm

[WxGuy1]

Just as a note regarding the apparent SW motion of Isaac... I think some of that is just perception caused by the opening of the southern part of the eyewall. Notice that the precipitation just south of the center of circulation is decreasing, in turn making it look like the eye is becoming larger. This is making it look like the center is moving SWward, since the "center" of the gap in precipitation indeed is moving southward. However, I'm not sure that's anything more than a visual oddity.

The north edge of the eye is holding steady in terms of any N/S movement. I suspect the storm is wobbling westward +/- 5 degrees.

[wxsouth]

It doesn't look like any standard-height surface observation site (the ASOS and AWOS sites) has yet to sample actual Cat 1 wind speeds. Latest analysis from HRD: http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/7518 ... ontour.png

From the surface observations I've seen, this looks pretty good. The only hurricane-force winds I've seen have been with the oil platforms above the water. I know KBVE was close to hurricane force winds, and I'm sure there were some peaks in there.

Note that the SS scale (and the NHC's estimate of 80 mph winds) is based on sustained winds, not peak wind gusts. Has anyone seen actual Cat 1 winds over land in the past few hours? The HRD analyses suggest that's not occurring, and that supports what I've seen in the surface observations. Of course, it's not uncommon for the surface observations to record considerably lower-than-max-winds observations, since the highest winds typically occur over a very small part of the storm near the eyewall and typically only near the coast on the onshore / right side of the circulation. The NHC site notes that the winds typically decrease one entire SS category if one is more than ~1/2 mile from the coast.

The latest KGAO ob is 50 kts sustained with gusts to 65 kts, which is still tropical storm condition.

It's always tough to find ASOS/AWOS measurements that match NHC advisory values. A couple possible reasons:
-ASOS/AWOS sites are relatively sparse may not fully sample the strongest winds
-ASOS/AWOS typically report sustained winds as a 2-minute average, which will be lower than the 1-minute average used by NHC.
-The NHC advisory winds are supposed to be the highest winds possible for a marine exposure...so by definition they will be isolated.
-Of course, it's always possible the advisory winds are too high.

[setxndnfan]

It has gone 5 hours without gaining any latitude. It is wobbling but the overall motion is not NW unless it is weighted over the last 12 hours.

[CronkPSU]

the TWC folks keep talking about it staying over water and heading west...they call it a wobble

[pwrdog]

It's about as good as it's looked right now...

[ROCK]

It isn't a wobble I don't think. Short range model guidance have been keen to this happening. They showed him hugging the coastline almost parallel until Morgan City and heading inland. Appears to be happening on radar. He can't head north yet because high pressure is building in from the northeast.

you win the prize Ntx!! GSF, NAM, NOGAPS all showed this....the EURO did at one time as well....until last run.....this is not a surprise unless it drops further SW and hits that pool of 30C ssts.....

[stormreader]

Good grief, SW again.

saved loop

Shows you that the storm has jogged quite a few miles to the west. Its first landfall was at Soutwest Pass of the Mouth of the Miss River (that the small appendage that sticks out from the mouth in a SW direction). Look now and see how far away the eye has moved from there.

[HeeBGBz]

Dang, is he headed back out into the gulf? The winds have picked up here right now. Sounds stronger than they've been all night.

[Wx_Warrior]

Just as a note regarding the apparent SW motion of Isaac... I think some of that is just perception caused by the opening of the southern part of the eyewall. Notice that the precipitation just south of the center of circulation is decreasing, in turn making it look like the eye is becoming larger. This is making it look like the center is moving SWward, since the "center" of the gap in precipitation indeed is moving southward. However, I'm not sure that's anything more than a visual oddity.

The north edge of the eye is holding steady in terms of any N/S movement. I suspect the storm is wobbling westward +/- 5 degrees.

If you said it was over water, some would say "nuh uh". Thanks for the explanation.

[lilybeth]

Just to let people know who might lose Weather Channel on their TVs, you can go to their website and they are streaming their programming live. It goes to static radar while commercials are on, but otherwise they are broadcasting online.

And they are saying it is over water and keep mentioning the low pressure and how it seems to be maintaining itself. I also heard them talk about wobble, and they do seem to think it is hugging the coastline right now.

[boomstyk]

It's about as good as it's looked right now...

With respect sir/ma'am. They eye is coming appart. The most recent radar shows the eyewall breaking away and expanding. My opinion this thing is coming apart.