ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Sounds like Grand Isle might have Cat 3 damage.

[dexterlabio]

never imagined this getting stronger as it nears the landmass.

if this is gonna be the case, things just got more serious IMO. it is a Cat1 but I believe an intensifying Cat1 near landfall is different and could pose serious trouble...and this thing even slows down!

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Excuse my stupidity...

But what will cause the storm to break out and go North? I mean you know the NHC sees this and took it into account. However, what makes them think it wont really influence the storm?

The upper level winds around 500mb (steering level) are still southeasterly since they are coming around between the bottom of the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the approaching trough to the northwest.

[tolakram]

Sounds like Grand Isle might have Cat 3 damage.

Please post a source when you make these kinds of statements.

[MHurricanes]

i still say when all is said and done with a 968 pressure we will see cat2 damage before it begins to weaken.

If recent reports are true, some areas Southwest of New Orleans may already be experiencing CAT2-level damage.

[Ken711]

Excuse my stupidity...

But what will cause the storm to break out and go North? I mean you know the NHC sees this and took it into account. However, what makes them think it wont really influence the storm?

As a newbie I have the same question. What conditions are there to move this inland?

[catskillfire51]

Want to see why the storm stalled out?

That doesn't tell us anything. To me that looks like it's going to turn more northward. Could you explain what you see there that tells you why it stalled please? Thanks.

because a high pressure ridge is stronger so a low pressure system moving to a high pressure ridge, the high pressure won.


just my uneducated opinion

[Blinhart]

Sounds like Grand Isle might have Cat 3 damage.

Please post a source when you make these kinds of statements.

If u go into the obs page. U will see the tweet from the mayor of Grand Isle stating the damage is a lot worse than expected and the water is waist deep on the island already.

[monicaei]

Want to repeat this since last two posts took up entire page in case it was missed. Director of GOSHEP is reporting wind gusts over 100 mph in Grand Isle. Said damage is much worse than was expected.

Link??.

[monicaei]

Sounds like Grand Isle might have Cat 3 damage.

Please post a source when you make these kinds of statements.

If u go into the obs page. U will see the tweet from the mayor of Grand Isle stating the damage is a lot worse than expected and the water is waist deep on the island already.

Waist deep on GI isn't cat 3 damage. GI floods several feet multiple times a summer.

[Texashawk]

Man, if Isaac were a truck, it'd be going BEEP - BEEP - BEEP in reverse!



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[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sounds like Grand Isle might have Cat 3 damage.

Please post a source when you make these kinds of statements.

Maybe cat 2.

Mark, director of GOSHEP said Grand Isle was reporting wind gusts over 100 mph about 25 min ago.

[CronkPSU]

Mayor of Grand Isle in La says damage is catastrophic...experienced winds of over 100mph for the last 3 hours...

he is on WWL right now

Directv channel 349

[wxwatcher1999]

Man, if Isaac were a truck, it'd be going BEEP - BEEP - BEEP in reverse!

[ img]http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/8216/radar1030pm.gif[/img]

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what do you mean by that??

[ozonepete]

please forgive my tone. I am just curious as how what can be visually seen seems to be blatantly ignored.

No problem! That water vapor image and radar and satellite images are just three of dozens of tools the NHC has to use to come to a final decision. I can't tell you how many people come on here and look at a few sat or radar loops with very little experience and think they see movement that is an illusion. It IS fun to try and second guess and in rare cases some of here see a trend correctly before the NHC does, but boy is it rare! And in this case, after following TCs for many, many years, and looking at extensive data all evening long, I don't see any data that shows a different track direction. A slow down yes, but not a change in direction. There are just too many reasons to explain here why people are seeing different motions on the radar and sat. The only thing I can say breifly is that the center has slowed, stalled, looped a tiny bit and is now resuming a northwestern or west-northwestern motion, and it is common for landfalling TCs to do this because of frictional effects.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Want to repeat this since last two posts took up entire page in case it was missed. Director of GOSHEP is reporting wind gusts over 100 mph in Grand Isle. Said damage is much worse than was expected.

Link??.

You could try wafb.com He was on live about 25 min ago reporting this.

[SunnyThoughts]

Mayor of Grand Isle on wwltv.com live says conditions are unbelievable..that gusts of 120mph have been reported. He and the firemen were trying to get out...but as of right now..they are unable to do so. Held up in community center that can withstand much higher winds so he says they are ok. He says if this is a cat 1, he sure doesn't want to see a cat 3.

[Texashawk]

Man, if Isaac were a truck, it'd be going BEEP - BEEP - BEEP in reverse!

[ img]http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/8216/radar1030pm.gif[/img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

what do you mean by that??

I mean he's backing back out into the Gulf in a generally W to WSW direction, as some models forecast.

[rainstorm]

Mayor of Grand Isle on wwltv.com live says conditions are unbelievable..that gusts of 120mph have been reported. He and the firemen were trying to get out...but as of right now..they are unable to do so. Held up in community center that can withstand much higher winds so he says they are ok. He says if this is a cat 1, he sure doesn't want to see a cat 3.

if he is saying that i have to agree. the eye still seems to be tightening up. grand isle seems to be the place that will be hardest hit.

[Meteorcane]

Shell Beach reporting 62 mph sustained winds