ATL: ISAAC - Models

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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5441 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:11 am

Couldn't sleep so figured I would check the models (new sleep schedule) and wow at the Euro. Just when I thought we wouldn't see much of any Isaac that run makes me a tad concerned. Looks to be crawling on satellite, I'll guess we'll see what happens today.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5442 Postby ravyrn » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:23 am

It's very interesting that the two model camps have flopped sides with the UKmet and Euro moving west and the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL moving east. I thought we'd have some model agreement after tonight's GFS run, but nope!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5443 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:21 am

ravyrn wrote:It's very interesting that the two model camps have flopped sides with the UKmet and Euro moving west and the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL moving east. I thought we'd have some model agreement after tonight's GFS run, but nope!


The gfs and hwrf runs I saw last moved landfall points just slightly east, but then turned west after landfall. Same thinking just happening a littler later. Other than that really good consensus of this thing stalling either on the coast or just inland and slowly moving west to some extent.
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#5444 Postby Comanche » Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:47 am

So, the 6z GFS and 6z NAM look roughly the same with a westward bend near the coast and s l o w movement. The rainfall looks like will be the biggest story of this system.

Would love to hear some thoughts over on the winter weather forum about the moisture charge into the south/southeast before El Nino this winter. Will this soil moisture recharge have any possible impacts on winter temperature/precip forecasts?
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#5445 Postby rainstorm » Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:59 am

looks like the west bend has already happened.
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#5446 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:15 am

I'm curious of what the next models are going to show with the slowdown of isaac
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Re:

#5447 Postby Houstonia » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:17 am

Comanche wrote:So, the 6z GFS and 6z NAM look roughly the same with a westward bend near the coast and s l o w movement. The rainfall looks like will be the biggest story of this system.

Would love to hear some thoughts over on the winter weather forum about the moisture charge into the south/southeast before El Nino this winter. Will this soil moisture recharge have any possible impacts on winter temperature/precip forecasts?


I'd love to get some rain out of this. Any chance?
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Re:

#5448 Postby Frank P » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:17 am

rainstorm wrote:looks like the west bend has already happened.


Well the recon plots sure look like NW to me.. but that is my untrained opinion only
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5449 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:54 am

now in radar range and can see the eye......moving wnw to me on radar...but that can be deceiving....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5450 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:55 am

12Z NAM looks to be a CC of the last run...if all these runs start piling up when is the NHC going to even consider the possibility? I am curious. Not a peep about a stall and west shift but we have all this guidance that says otherwise....right now they are just heading this north and ejecting NE...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5451 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:56 am

Wow just checked 06z NAM shows over 10" of rain for my area and Isaac comes right over me. :eek:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5452 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:57 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Wow just checked 06z NAM shows over 10" of rain for my area and Isaac comes right over me. :eek:



12Z is running now...might want to look at this as well...:)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5453 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 28, 2012 8:59 am

ROCK wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Wow just checked 06z NAM shows over 10" of rain for my area and Isaac comes right over me. :eek:



12Z is running now...might want to look at this as well...:)


This could be bad for this area. It has been a very wet summer and with all that rain on tops of hours of TS winds I'm starting to become concerned about power outages with trees uprootings.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5454 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:03 am

18hr on the NAM still offshore moving west

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


the weakness is there but is left behind

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5455 Postby N2FSU » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:05 am

12Z NAM: 0hr

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5456 Postby N2FSU » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:06 am

12Z NAM: 12hr

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5457 Postby N2FSU » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:07 am

12Z NAM: 18hr

Image
Last edited by N2FSU on Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5458 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:08 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


21hrs....still offshore moving west....about the same so far from the 6Z
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5459 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:09 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M



24hrs...sheesh
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5460 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:09 am

ROCK wrote:18hr on the NAM still offshore moving west

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


the weakness is there but is left behind

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


And if I recall correctly the nam was the model that was showing the weakness as being the strongest between the ridges yesterday.
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