ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah 7 mph catches my eye also, euro run could come true with the more west trend

Is this the subtropical high over the gulf states affecting Isaac?

[tolakram]

AF is the one that found the low reading. (edit: extrap reading, waiting for sonde) NOAA did extrap 981mb from 8 thousand feet.

Ah, thanks. When I loaded up GE web it showed AF still far from the storm.

[WeatherGuesser]

even 976 is a cat2

No, it isn't.

Categories are not based on pressure.

[StormGuy]

Isaac is crawling now but still moving. It's running out of time now to intensify much. I wouldn't be shocked at this point if he remained a TS all the way until landfall. Not saying that is going to happen, but considering Isaac's history, it wouldn't surprise me at this point. He's still going to pack quite a wallop with flooding rains and significant storm surge. That's the main threat at this point with still some heavy winds to deal with as well.

[tolakram]

even 976 is a cat2

No, it isn't.

Categories are not based on pressure.

I agree, and a pro met explained it nicely earlier this morning. Wind has to do with pressure gradient, not pressure. Isaac is a big sprawling low pressure system. Only if Isaac can manage to tighten up it's core will the low pressure translate into higher winds, and fortunately time is running out.

[northjaxpro]

slowed down to 7 mph...

This alone is very troublesome! If Isaac continues on a crawl basically, the flooding and surge issues will be enormous across LA, MS and AL coast. It will also allow Isaac a bit more time over open water to get his act together somewhat and possibly get stacked a bit more and organize better before landfall.

[Hogweed]

AF Dropsonde says 977. That 968 isn't confirmed.

[fasterdisaster]

AF Dropsonde says 977. That 968 isn't confirmed.

All right, thanks. RI cancel.

[WeatherGuesser]

If Isaac continues on a crawl basically, the flooding and surge issues will be enormous across LA, MS and AL coast.

Which is what happened in Florida and what people have been saying here all along if they read between all the uninformed posts about how the storm is a wimp because it doesn't have 300MPH winds.

Flooding and surge are the issues here. With the angle of approach, this could push an unfortunate amount of water into the mouth of the Mississippi.

[Kory]

Yeah 7 mph catches my eye also, euro run could come true with the more west trend

Dude, the track isn't changing...and especially looking at the Euro. That would be the last model I look at right now.

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[w5yne]

No Isaac has slowed down will this result in a more westward movement as though earlier yesterday ?

Thanks

[SouthDadeFish]

First morning visible shows Isaac is trying to close off an eyewall, but he's missing convection on the northern side:

[GCANE]

slowed down to 7 mph...

Looks like a ridge between the two highs may be building

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[bcargile]

its only chance now

Only chance for what?

To become a hurricane, no?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

High Values
Flight (30s): 83 knots
Flight (10s): 86 knots
SFMR Surface (10s): 63 knots (about 0.98 in/hr rain rate)

[SouthDadeFish]

Those flight level winds support a 70 knot hurricane if an 80% reduction factor is used.

[fasterdisaster]

63 knots is close enough that they just might pull the trigger.

[senorpepr]

Those flight level winds support a 70 knot hurricane if an 80% reduction factor is used.

I agree... we finally broke that threshold. The 78 kt from earlier reduced down to 62.4, which rounded down. With those winds, that should get the upgrade.

[Hogweed]

AF Dropsonde says 977. That 968 isn't confirmed.

All right, thanks. RI cancel.

Still 4mb lower than NOAA found 30 mins earlier.

[RL3AO]

86kt FL. They will certainly up to 65kt.