ATL: ISAAC - Models

[deltadog03]

Anytime! Hey, I get to learn with yall as well...

[deltadog03]

NAM is a descent amount EAST of the 12z run so far through 18 hours...moving NNE to N

[BigB0882]

I know everyone is now really excited to see this miss the forecast points but please don't forget that the NAM should not be used to see TC position. It is horribly unreliable for that but is great for the synoptics.

[PTPatrick]

I was just noticing that too. I'm sold on a Biloxi to Bay st Louis landfall based on trends in the models and watching t move north of forecast all day. Plus the weakness is obviously there...im thinking it's going to take drive up hwy 49 to Hattiesburg and Jackson.

Overall it shouldn't make much difference in ms/al other than perhaps higher surge in East Jackson county and mobile bay.
It could effect sensible weather in the baton rouge to Nola areas thugh if it comes this far east.

This is just my humble opinion. I'm not a met. Don't use this for planning.

[deltadog03]

NAM is a good amount East this run...landfall looks like its going to be btwn gulfport and biloxi, as well as I can tell....12z run was back towards Central LA

[thatwhichisnt]

NAM is a good amount East this run...landfall looks like its going to be btwn gulfport and biloxi, as well as I can tell....12z run was back towards Central LA

I hate to say I don't see it as you are far more knowledgeable than me, however to get there it has to start going almost due north to get there. The core looks almost due south of Mobile.

[PTPatrick]

NAM is a good amount East this run...landfall looks like its going to be btwn gulfport and biloxi, as well as I can tell....12z run was back towards Central LA

I hate to say I don't see it as you are far more knowledgeable than me, however to get there it has to start going almost due north to get there. The core looks almost due south of Mobile.

More like due south of Destin...

[deltadog03]

The nam does show a bigger weakness this run as well.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

NAM is a good amount East this run...landfall looks like its going to be btwn gulfport and biloxi, as well as I can tell....12z run was back towards Central LA

I hate to say I don't see it as you are far more knowledgeable than me, however to get there it has to start going almost due north to get there. The core looks almost due south of Mobile.

why the disrespect. All he is doing is telling what the nam is showing

[thatwhichisnt]

NAM is a good amount East this run...landfall looks like its going to be btwn gulfport and biloxi, as well as I can tell....12z run was back towards Central LA

I hate to say I don't see it as you are far more knowledgeable than me, however to get there it has to start going almost due north to get there. The core looks almost due south of Mobile.

More like due south of Destin...

Maybe more around the AL/FL border, but regardless I don't see that drastic of a movement on the radar. I will be glad to eat my words though.

[ATCcane]

NCEP North American Model (NAM) 08.28.2012 00:00z

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... t_loop.php

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Might be a little east in very short term, then moves wnw/nw directly over NO. Then takes a interesting west jog across SE LA. Obviously weakness fills in and high locks northward turn. Interesting run.

[thatwhichisnt]

NCEP North American Model (NAM) 08.28.2012 00:00z

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... t_loop.php

I dont like that due west motion after the landfall. It is as if it says to me, "Oh you didn't like the NE side? Here is the eye wall for you to have fun with".

[wxwatcher1999]

Might be a little east in very short term, then moves wnw/nw directly over NO. Then takes a interesting west jog across SE LA. Obviously weakness fills in and high locks northward turn. Interesting run.

with it slowing down now could it be making that western turn earlier than expected?

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like at the end as if it is fixing to do a cyclonic loop and get back down into the Gulf.

[rainstorm]

Might be a little east in very short term, then moves wnw/nw directly over NO. Then takes a interesting west jog across SE LA. Obviously weakness fills in and high locks northward turn. Interesting run.

with it slowing down now could it be making that western turn earlier than expected?

probably not. that would be a bad run for NO if it gets down to 960 or so.

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC Official track per 10pm update



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[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like at the end as if it is fixing to do a cyclonic loop and get back down into the Gulf.

Thought that as well Dean. Now that would be something. Lee was supposed to do that but never happened.

[rainstorm]

Looks like at the end as if it is fixing to do a cyclonic loop and get back down into the Gulf.

will be really interesting to see the GFS. thats a big west change for the NAM.

[Turtle]

Looks like at the end as if it is fixing to do a cyclonic loop and get back down into the Gulf.

will be really interesting to see the GFS. thats a big west change for the NAM.

May I have the link to the model?

Also, the new NHC cone is a touch to the east.