ATL: ISAAC - Models

[timmeister]

NAM showing Isaac becoming trapped in a COL and becoming a weakness/trough.

WHAT DOES "COL" Stand for?

COL = The region of relatively low pressure between two anticyclones.

Sometimes, the region between two high pressure centers may assume the character of a trough when there is a detectable wind shift noted at the surface. In the absence of a wind shift, the region is designated a COL, akin to a geographic saddle between two mountain peaks.

[Wthrman13]

NAM showing Isaac becoming trapped in a COL and becoming a weakness/trough.

WHAT DOES "COL" Stand for?

Cut-off low, I think?

It's a deformation region between two lows and/or two highs.

EDIT: Also see http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/gloss ... ch?id=col1

[southerngale]

12z GFS @ 24 hours

[drezee]

GFS has shifted 25 miles to the NE on the 12z run through 24 hours form the 0z run...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=024

[deltadog03]

Correct, GFS has shifted just a bit east this run....Its VERY close to being picked up by that trof....

[PTPatrick]

Did the gfs initialize location well? I thought it looked a bit south of where the center is.

[southerngale]

12z GFS @ 48h

So far, similar to past runs... landfall in SE La. and riding the coast westward

[ATCcane]

Moving westward slowly along the coast. Basically the same as the last run(s)

[rainstorm]

looks like the gfs only gives it 24 hours over water.

[PTPatrick]

It is a bit northeast of last run. Landfall looked a bt more toward the mouth of the mississippi and it only drifts into the atchafalaya swamp area....last nights by 60 hrs it was nearing lake Charles. So the end game is a bit different.


Lifting toward Alexandria to Natchez area on this run

[southerngale]

12z GFS @ 63h




@78h

[Ntxw]

Did the gfs initialize location well? I thought it looked a bit south of where the center is.

I think it did pretty well. Remember people forget that when we see the product the initialization/data input was actually hours before we see it. Example 12z runs actually is from 6am not what it is right now.

[petit_bois]

So GFS is trending back east towards the MS coast....
I wonder where the euro will show this afternoon...

[perk]

So GFS is trending back east towards the MS coast....
I wonder where the euro will show this afternoon...

No it's not check the images above.

[deltadog03]

CMC looks like its near Gulfport/Biloxi for landfall

[ROCK]

CMC looks like its near Gulfport/Biloxi for landfall

it also blows it up and send it due north....better start heading that way now....

[petit_bois]

So GFS is trending back east towards the MS coast....
I wonder where the euro will show this afternoon...

No it's not check the images above.

I did... slight move to the east at 24 hrs.
not big... but could be the start of a trend.
Trends are VERY important at this point

[deltadog03]

CMC looks like its near Gulfport/Biloxi for landfall

it also blows it up and send it due north....better start heading that way now....

True, but I would say it looks plausible....but your right...we shall see.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS still wants to push Isaac through the Morgan City - Lafayette corridor after landfall east of Grand Isle. Very similar to Gustav track.

[Blinhart]

So GFS is trending back east towards the MS coast....
I wonder where the euro will show this afternoon...

No it's not check the images above.

I did... slight move to the east at 24 hrs.
not big... but could be the start of a trend.
Trends are VERY important at this point

Landfall is actually a little West, but the movement inside Louisiana is more NW than WNW.