ATL: ISAAC - Models

[wxwatcher1999]

This morning's individual GFS ensemble cluster

I don't remember what the last ones looked like but did these shift west cause I don't ever remember seeing that many in Texas

[rainstorm]

06z GFDL off to TX. This model is lost!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=066hr

it keeps isaac very weak and shallow which is why it just rides the low level flow. looks like a high end TS.

[rainstorm]

Anyone think the models will shift left today?

quite possible. GFDL already did.

[Houstonia]

06z GFDL off to TX. This model is lost!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=066hr

it keeps isaac very weak and shallow which is why it just rides the low level flow. looks like a high end TS.

If getting a high end T.S. would mean Nola would be spared a bit more misery - I'd happily take it.

[Ntxw]

I don't remember what the last ones looked like but did these shift west cause I don't ever remember seeing that many in Texas

Compared to yesterday they did, it was clustered between Biloxi and New Orleans yesterday, probably Morgan City and Houma today.

[wxwatcher1999]

06z GFDL off to TX. This model is lost!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=066hr

it keeps isaac very weak and shallow which is why it just rides the low level flow. looks like a high end TS.

How big of a storm does it have to be to feel the weakness?

[rainstorm]

06z GFDL off to TX. This model is lost!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=066hr

it keeps isaac very weak and shallow which is why it just rides the low level flow. looks like a high end TS.

How big of a storm does it have to be to feel the weakness?

well if its a huge front or trough anything will feel the weakness. in this case i would say isaac would have to be vertically stacked with strong outflow to feel a weakness. none of that is occuring on the gfdl.

[EasyTiger]

What's interesting about the GFDL, is that it's forecasting a path similar (albeit a little right) to that of the 1900 Hurricane aka Isaac's storm. The intensity of the 1900 storm was a little stronger at the same latitude as Isaac, but not by much. The 1900 storm didn't really ramp up until it hit the central gulf. Could history repeat...probably not, but who knows



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[Jevo]

12Z NAM Initialized

[Tireman4]

What's interesting about the GFDL, is that it's forecasting a path similar (albeit a little right) to that of the 1900 Hurricane aka Isaac's storm. The intensity of the 1900 storm was a little stronger at the same latitude as Isaac, but not by much. The 1900 storm didn't really ramp up until it hit the central gulf. Could history repeat...probably not, but who knows

That storm brings back tons of memories of what it did. I think the last survivor died not too long ago. Great book on that storm...Isaac's Storm by Eric Larson..(no pun intended). Sorry, back to the models. I think it will be interesting to all along the Gulf Coast as the day wears on.


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[Jevo]

12Z NAM +12

[southerngale]

This morning's individual GFS ensemble cluster

http://i49.tinypic.com/6pvvc8.gif

I don't remember what the last ones looked like but did these shift west cause I don't ever remember seeing that many in Texas

Yesterday afternoon



Last night



This morning

[Texashawk]

This morning's individual GFS ensemble cluster

http://i49.tinypic.com/6pvvc8.gif

I don't remember what the last ones looked like but did these shift west cause I don't ever remember seeing that many in Texas

Interesting that although the ensemble mean doesn't change much, the members continue to shift west. Not sure what that means long-term.

[Jevo]

12Z NAM +18

[Jevo]

12Z NAM +24

[wxwatcher1999]

Might be a little shift west with the nam...I'm not sure though

[rainstorm]

yea, it did shift west.

[southerngale]

The 12z NAM seems to stall it just off the SE Louisiana cost.... don't know how long yet. At hour 34, it's hardly budged from hour 24.

[Jevo]

12Z NAM +30

[Jevo]

12Z NAM +36