ATL: ISAAC - Models

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PTPatrick
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Re:

#5161 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:09 am

TwisterFanatic wrote:Even further west with the ensembles.

I think those are still the Ensembles from 18z
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#5162 Postby TexasSam » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:10 am

If the Euro starts in a hour I'm not going to make it. I have to go to bed.
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Re: Re:

#5163 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:13 am

PTPatrick wrote:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Even further west with the ensembles.

I think those are still the Ensembles from 18z


Yeah, they are...didn't see 10pm (central) until posted.
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Re: Re:

#5164 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:15 am

PTPatrick wrote:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Even further west with the ensembles.

I think those are still the Ensembles from 18z


My eyes are playing tricks then. :lol:
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#5165 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:16 am

66 hrs HWRF between Baton rouge and Lafayette on new run...on 18 z was over lake Charles so this ones def not buying Texas. Suspect many of the gfs ensembles will end up back toward Nola/ms this run.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5166 Postby Ntxw » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:17 am

The 0z individual ensemble members don't come out for awhile, but the ensemble means is. Not too much different than the GFS itself or the 18z means.

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#5167 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:21 am

For what it's worth hwrf initialized southwest of key west at 970 mb so it's strength should be taken with a grain of salt...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5168 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:22 am

I think we can trash the whole 0z model runs because of a center relocation

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#5169 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:23 am

0z Canadian looks like Hancock county, ms...few miles east of Nhc track.
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#5170 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:28 am

I had asked Ivanhater, but now I'm really curious if the new center coords will be used in the Euro this run.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5171 Postby AFWeather » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:30 am

Hurricaneman wrote:I think we can trash the whole 0z model runs because of a center relocation

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Agree, all this wait for the Euro tonight probably for nothing. Hopefully we get good initialization at 12Z and see how things go from there. I do not envy NHC and their 5AM update... they won't have any models runs since the relocation to go off of. Even at 11AM they still won't. Would guess they leave the track as-is even if Euro goes west when 0Z comes in.
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#5172 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:31 am

Doubtful...I imagine it'll be too late. But the Synoptics wont change....and this new center could wobble back on track. Too early to say yet if it effected it.


I'm mentally adjusting any track 50-100 northeast if what it shows for a better idea. Not scientific but it makes me feel better.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5173 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:32 am

AFWeather wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:I think we can trash the whole 0z model runs because of a center relocation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Agree, all this wait for the Euro tonight probably for nothing. Hopefully we get good initialization at 12Z and see how things go from there. I do not envy NHC and their 5AM update... they won't have any models runs since the relocation to go off of. Even at 11AM they still won't. Would guess they leave the track as-is even if Euro goes west when 0Z comes in.



I guess that answers my question. What significance could this have in the track now in your opinion?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5174 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:51 am

AFWeather wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:I think we can trash the whole 0z model runs because of a center relocation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Agree, all this wait for the Euro tonight probably for nothing. Hopefully we get good initialization at 12Z and see how things go from there. I do not envy NHC and their 5AM update... they won't have any models runs since the relocation to go off of. Even at 11AM they still won't. Would guess they leave the track as-is even if Euro goes west when 0Z comes in.


they will have the nam lol
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#5175 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:52 am

Euro initialized...a bit south with the rest.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5176 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:56 am

Well, I thought the bell would be tolling by now, but I guess we must wait until 12z runs. (sigh)
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#5177 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:58 am

LOL....and the euro is coming in further west......obviously doesn't have the new relocation in there....
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#5178 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:58 am

The relocation is definitely going to mess things up. If the models shift west this run, though, that might mean the 12z run today was closer to the actual location of landfall.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5179 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 27, 2012 12:59 am

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#5180 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:02 am

Euro going to be Mississippi
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