ATL: ISAAC - Models

[PTPatrick]

Even further west with the ensembles.

I think those are still the Ensembles from 18z

[TexasSam]

If the Euro starts in a hour I'm not going to make it. I have to go to bed.

[Wx_Warrior]

Even further west with the ensembles.

I think those are still the Ensembles from 18z

Yeah, they are...didn't see 10pm (central) until posted.

[TwisterFanatic]

Even further west with the ensembles.

I think those are still the Ensembles from 18z

My eyes are playing tricks then.

[PTPatrick]

66 hrs HWRF between Baton rouge and Lafayette on new run...on 18 z was over lake Charles so this ones def not buying Texas. Suspect many of the gfs ensembles will end up back toward Nola/ms this run.

[Ntxw]

The 0z individual ensemble members don't come out for awhile, but the ensemble means is. Not too much different than the GFS itself or the 18z means.

[PTPatrick]

For what it's worth hwrf initialized southwest of key west at 970 mb so it's strength should be taken with a grain of salt...

[Hurricaneman]

I think we can trash the whole 0z model runs because of a center relocation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[PTPatrick]

0z Canadian looks like Hancock county, ms...few miles east of Nhc track.

[SoupBone]

I had asked Ivanhater, but now I'm really curious if the new center coords will be used in the Euro this run.

[AFWeather]

I think we can trash the whole 0z model runs because of a center relocation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree, all this wait for the Euro tonight probably for nothing. Hopefully we get good initialization at 12Z and see how things go from there. I do not envy NHC and their 5AM update... they won't have any models runs since the relocation to go off of. Even at 11AM they still won't. Would guess they leave the track as-is even if Euro goes west when 0Z comes in.

[PTPatrick]

Doubtful...I imagine it'll be too late. But the Synoptics wont change....and this new center could wobble back on track. Too early to say yet if it effected it.


I'm mentally adjusting any track 50-100 northeast if what it shows for a better idea. Not scientific but it makes me feel better.

[SoupBone]

I think we can trash the whole 0z model runs because of a center relocation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree, all this wait for the Euro tonight probably for nothing. Hopefully we get good initialization at 12Z and see how things go from there. I do not envy NHC and their 5AM update... they won't have any models runs since the relocation to go off of. Even at 11AM they still won't. Would guess they leave the track as-is even if Euro goes west when 0Z comes in.

I guess that answers my question. What significance could this have in the track now in your opinion?

[Aric Dunn]

I think we can trash the whole 0z model runs because of a center relocation

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree, all this wait for the Euro tonight probably for nothing. Hopefully we get good initialization at 12Z and see how things go from there. I do not envy NHC and their 5AM update... they won't have any models runs since the relocation to go off of. Even at 11AM they still won't. Would guess they leave the track as-is even if Euro goes west when 0Z comes in.

they will have the nam lol

[PTPatrick]

Euro initialized...a bit south with the rest.

[Wx_Warrior]

Well, I thought the bell would be tolling by now, but I guess we must wait until 12z runs. (sigh)

[deltadog03]

LOL....and the euro is coming in further west......obviously doesn't have the new relocation in there....

[fasterdisaster]

The relocation is definitely going to mess things up. If the models shift west this run, though, that might mean the 12z run today was closer to the actual location of landfall.

[Wx_Warrior]

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[PTPatrick]

Euro going to be Mississippi