ATL: ISAAC - Models
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Dean4Storms
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Looks like a Morgan City, La full landfall on 0z gfs heading wnw
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Wx_Warrior
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Nothing really changing...not as intense, but I don't think we should rely on GFS for intensity modeling. Same story with it approaching SE LA and then drifting west right along or maybe just off the coast. Might be a tad more inland with this run.
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northjaxpro
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New Orleans on the northeast quadrant on the GFS 48 hr run. That will be absolutely terrible if that pan out, especially if the cyclone strengthens into high end Cat 2 or Cat 3.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Difference between 0z GFS and 12z really is only a few miles north vs south, slightly on the coast vs just off.
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GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Something doesn't seem right about this skirting of the LA coast. Seems to me that the steering currents aren't well defined and that is a problem. The sharp angle at which it is approaching the coast is also problematic because a tiny difference in track makes a huge difference in landfall point.
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deltadog03
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Re: Re:
ROCK wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:GFS appears to hold firm once again, west movement right along the LA coastline!
yep high building in from the north....just offshore...
What a place to hang out!
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StormClouds63
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
This looks a lot like the forecast for Gustav ... especially the wnw/w drift after landfall. However, Gustav did not move west after landfall (Morgan City), but rather NNW ... and gave Baton Rouge a terrible beating.
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Nikki
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Re:
deltadog03 wrote:hmmm...HR 48 at H5, the upper trof is MUCH more pronounced in the SE. I wonder why the GFS didn't pick this up. That is much stronger and further south than the 12z run......hmmmm
Could you please tell me what this means, in terms I can understand?
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Re:
deltadog03 wrote:Honestly, this should have been picked up at hour 48-54....that is the strongest/furtherest south with that weakness....
Are you sure...I compared 200-500 mb heights at 12Z vs. 00z and it looks more pronounced at 12z.
Last edited by HurrMark on Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
deltadog03 wrote:Honestly, this should have been picked up at hour 48-54....that is the strongest/furtherest south with that weakness....
Agreed delta! I wonder if ensembles/gfdl/hwrf will feel the weakness. I wanna trust gfs cuz its better for my folks in Pascagoula. But with that and still some eastern model support, and possible north reformation, I can't.
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deltadog03
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Re: Re:
Nikki wrote:deltadog03 wrote:hmmm...HR 48 at H5, the upper trof is MUCH more pronounced in the SE. I wonder why the GFS didn't pick this up. That is much stronger and further south than the 12z run......hmmmm
Could you please tell me what this means, in terms I can understand?
The gfs trended stronger with the weakness, coming down from the ohio valley, and it still didn't pick up Isaac.....We shall see if that is right, its a VERY tough forecast.
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